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Machine learning to investigate policy-relevant social determinants of health and suicide rates in the United States

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Abstract

This study aimed to categorize county clusters of multidimensional social determinants of health (SDOH) using unsupervised machine learning and to analyze their association with county-level suicide rates, considering temporal, geographic and demographic variation. We analyzed aggregated SDOH data across 3,018 US counties for 2009, 2014 and 2019, which were linked to county-level suicide rates from the National Vital Statistics System. We identified three distinct SDOH clusters: ‘REMOTE’ (rural, elderly, marginalized environments, old housing, traditional systems, empty houses), ‘COPE’ (complex family dynamics, high consumption of health services, poverty, extreme heat) and ‘DIVERSE’ (dense, immigrant rich, environmentally challenged, economically unequal, racial/ethnic diversity, saturated health care, expensive housing). We used negative binomial regression after identifying clusters to estimate the associations between county-level SDOH clusters and suicide rates. Compared with other clusters, REMOTE was associated with higher overall suicide rates, particularly among men; COPE showed elevated suicide rates among whites; and DIVERSE exhibited increased rates among women and Black and Hispanic populations. The distribution of suicide rates across US states corresponded to the variations in SDOH cluster distribution within each state. These findings provide a foundation for designing more effective, data-driven suicide prevention strategies tailored to specific regional and demographic contexts.

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Fig. 1: SDOH cluster distributions.
Fig. 2: SDOH variable distributions by SDOH clusters in 2009.
Fig. 3: Suicide rates by SDOH clusters in 2009, 2014 and 2019.
Fig. 4: Coefficients (95% CI) of negative binomial model between SDOH clusters and suicide rates.

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Data availability

All raw data in this study are publicly available and can be retrieved from the US National Center for Health Statistics, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Mortality Data (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm) and US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Social Determinants of Health Database (https://www.ahrq.gov/sdoh/data-analytics/sdoh-data.html).

Code availability

Data analysis was performed using R version 4.4.2, leveraging several specialized packages to ensure robust and reproducible results. The ‘NbClust’ package (version 3.0.1) was used to determine the optimal number of clusters, while ‘cluster’ (version 2.1.6) facilitated clustering techniques and visualization. Core statistical computations and modeling were conducted using the ‘stats’ package (version 3.6.2). For regression modeling, including elastic net and regularization, the ‘glmnet’ package (version 4.1.8) was employed. In addition, geographically weighted regression was implemented using the ‘spgwr’ package (version 0.6-37). Code is available at github.com/X-PLORE-Lab/sdoh_clustering_suicide.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by funding from the US National Institute of Mental Health (RF1MH134649; Y.X.), American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (YIG-2-133-22; Y.X.), Mental Health Research Network (Y.X.), Google (Y.X.), the US National Institute on Drug Abuse Center for Health Economics of Treatment Interventions for Substance Use Disorder, HCV, and HIV (CHERISH, Y.X.), the US National Institute on Drug Abuse (K24DA061696-01; A.C.T.) and the Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Consortium to Advance Health Equity and Researcher Diversity (AIM-AHEAD), a program of the US National Institutes of Health (1OT2OD032581-02-259; Y.X., J.P.). The sponsor had no role in the design and conduct of the study, the collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. We would like to acknowledge Dr L. Snowden for his invaluable contributions to this work. Dr Snowden was engaged in the conceptualization and early writing of this manuscript prior to his passing in January 2025. As a pioneering scholar and leader in mental health services research, his intellectual guidance shaped this paper and many others in the field. We are honored to carry forward his legacy through this work.

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Y.X., Y.M. and J.J.M. carried out concept and design. Y.X., Y.M., T.T.B., A.C.T., L.R.S., J.C.-C.C., J.P. and J.J.M. carried out acquisition, analysis or interpretation of data. Y.X. and Y.M. drafted the paper. Y.X., Y.M., T.T.B., A.C.T., L.R.S., J.C.-C.C., J.P. and J.J.M. provided critical revision of the paper for important intellectual content. Y.X. and Y.M. carried out statistical analysis. Y.X. obtained funding. Y.X. provided administrative, technical or material support. Y.X. and Y.M. had full access to all of the data in the study and took responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Y.X. and Y.M. have made equal contributions.

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Correspondence to Yunyu Xiao.

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Competing interests

A.C.T. reports an honorarium from Elsevier for his work as co-editor in chief of the Elsevier-owned journal SSM-Mental Health. J.J.M. reports royalties for commercial use of the C-SSRS from the Research Foundation for Mental Hygiene and for the Columbia Psychiatry Pathways App from Columbia University. All other authors report no conflicts of interest.

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Xiao, Y., Meng, Y., Brown, T.T. et al. Machine learning to investigate policy-relevant social determinants of health and suicide rates in the United States. Nat. Mental Health 3, 675–684 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44220-025-00424-4

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