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  • Perspective
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Atmospheric drought indices in future projections

Nature Water volume 3, pages 374–387 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

In this Perspective we critically discuss future drought projections, focusing on key issues related to the concept of drought and its frequent confusion with aridity. We address the common misunderstanding between drought metrics and drought indices, as well as misconceptions about what drought indices represent. Our analysis emphasizes the role of atmospheric evaporative demand in shaping future drought severity, along with its drivers, impact processes, and responses to global warming, while highlighting related observational and theoretical challenges. We also shed light on the uncertainties and limitations of Earth system models (ESMs) in assessing future drought severity. We explore the complexities of ESMs in accurately representing plant physiological and hydrological processes, which are crucial for evaluating drought severity. Our discussion also delves into the nuanced effects of atmospheric CO2 concentrations on these processes and on water dynamics within ESMs, helping to clarify conceptual issues related to atmospheric drought indices. Finally, we advocate for a balanced evaluation of drought metrics, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple atmospheric processes in drought projections.

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Fig. 1: The different types of drought and their physical and ecological contributing processes and drivers.
Fig. 2: Illustration of the differences in drought severity based on standardized P–ET and standardized ET–AED.
Fig. 3: Difference in the mean duration and magnitude of drought events between the periods 1970–2010 and 2060–2100.
Fig. 4: Atmospheric, hydrological and ecological metrics derived from ESMs used to quantify drought severity and to identify prevailing interactions and sources of uncertainty.
Fig. 5: Scheme including the direct and indirect effects of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on plant transpiration (ET).

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Acknowledgements

This work has been supported by the research projects TED2021-129152B-C41 and PID2022-137244OB-I00, financed by the Spanish Ministry of Science and FEDER, the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) and the European Commission NextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094), project CSC2300000, through CSIC’s Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform Clima (PTI-Clima), and GLANCE ‘AGricultural Land AbandoNment and ClimatE change impacts on the water, energy and vegetation carbon cycles in the Mediterranean region’ (ESA contract no. 4000145543/24/I-LR). CSIC’s Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform Clima (PTI-Clima), contract no. CSC2023-02-00 financed by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) and the European Commission NextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094) and GLANCE (ESA contract no. 4000145543/24/I-LR). L.G.-S. is partially financed by national funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia under the project UIDB/00006/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/00006/2020), and project UID/00006/2025.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, IPE-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain

    Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Ahmed El Kenawy, Magí Franquesa & Amar Halifa-Marín

  2. Estación Experimental de Aula Dei, EEAD-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain

    Santiago Beguería

  3. Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal

    Luis Gimeno-Sotelo

  4. CEAUL – Centro de Estatística e Aplicações, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal

    Luis Gimeno-Sotelo

  5. Centro de Investigaciόn Mariña, Environmental Physics Laboratory, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain

    Luis Gimeno-Sotelo

  6. Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana), Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), Moncada, Valencia, Spain

    Cesar Azorin-Molina & Miguel Andres-Martin

  7. Department of Geography, University of Mansoura, Mansoura, Egypt

    Ahmed El Kenawy

  8. Laboratorio de Climatología y Servicios Climáticos (LCSC), CSIC– Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain

    Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Magí Franquesa & Amar Halifa-Marín

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Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Domínguez-Castro, F., Beguería, S. et al. Atmospheric drought indices in future projections. Nat Water 3, 374–387 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00416-9

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