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Escalating disasters and Brazil’s unpreparedness ahead of COP30

Nature Water volume 3, pages 1081–1082 (2025)Cite this article

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Fearnside and Leal Filho1 aptly highlighted Brazil’s environmental contradictions as host of COP30. An equally urgent, yet under-discussed, issue is the country’s growing exposure to hydroclimatic extreme events without corresponding institutional capacity, political commitment, and governance structure to respond effectively. This disconnect between rising risk and insufficient preparedness threatens not only Brazil’s domestic resilience but also its international credibility as a climate leader.

In just three years, Brazil has experienced a sequence of hydroclimatic and/or hydroclimatic-relevant extremes. In 2022, 231 lives were lost in landslides in Petrópolis, triggered by record-breaking rainfall2. In early 2023, São Sebastião experienced 683 mm of rain in less than 15 hours, resulting in 65 deaths and devastating coastal infrastructure3. In May 2024, unprecedented floods in Porto Alegre displaced over 500,000 people, submerged large swathes of the metropolitan area for weeks, and caused an estimated US$5.2 billion in damages4. These events are no longer rare anomalies. They are part of a discernible pattern — recurrent, intensifying, and increasingly foreseeable.

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Fig. 1: Simulated progression of flood extent and depth in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre, RMPOA, May 2024.

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  1. Graduate Program in Natural Disasters (Unesp | Cemaden), São Paulo State University – Unesp, São José dos Campos, São Paulo State, Brazil

    Enner Alcântara

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  1. Enner Alcântara
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Correspondence to Enner Alcântara.

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Alcântara, E. Escalating disasters and Brazil’s unpreparedness ahead of COP30. Nat Water 3, 1081–1082 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00507-7

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