Fig. 1: Modelled lake and reservoir CH4 emissions over time under different climate scenarios.

a,b, Modelled lake (a) and reservoir (b) CH4 emissions over time under different climate change scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5). Lines were derived from the model considering primarily the direct temperature response and ice-free period length. The dots represent the expected emissions by the end of the century combining this model and all other change factors in Table 1. Uncertainty estimates and analysis are available in Fig. 5 and Methods. Note that the y-axis scales do not start at zero.