Table 4 Linear mixed models examining the effect of country-level variables on the perceived climate of polarization, perceived breakdown of leadership, and perceived breakdown of social fabric

From: Country-level instability is related to a stronger perceived climate of polarization across 44 countries

 

Perceived climate of Polarization

Perceived breakdown of leadership

Perceived breakdown of social fabric

Predictors

N

β

df

95% CI

p

N

β

df

95% CI

p

N

β

df

95% CI

p

Economy and inequality

               

GDP PPP per capita

8360

−0.13^

41.14

[−0.22, −0.04]

.005 **

8277

−0.11^

41.05

[−0.24, 0.02]

.100

8260

−0.11^

41.14

[−0.20, −0.02]

.018 *

Income inequality

7783

0.12^

38.28

[0.03, 0.21]

.012 *

7707

0.16

38.14

[0.03, 0.28]

.018 *

7692

0.13^

38.34

[0.04, 0.22]

.005 **

Unemployment

8555

0.14^

42.01

[0.06, 0.23]

.002 **

8467

0.20

41.88

[0.09−0.32]

.001 **

8453

0.17

41.91

[0.09, 0.25]

<.001 ***

Youth NEET

8170

0.15

40.42

[0.06, 0.24]

.002 **

8089

0.14^

40.25

[0.02, 0.27]

.032 *

8074

0.17

40.62

[0.09, 0.25]

<.001 ***

Violence and conflict

               

Conflict & instability

8365

0.15

41.39

[0.07, 0.24]

<.001 ***

8280

0.10^

41.25

[−0.03, 0.22]

.147

8262

0.14^

41.54

[0.06, 0.23]

.002 **

Homicide

8360

0.13^

41.16

[0.04, 0.21]

.009 **

8277

0.19

41.02

[0.07, 0.31]

.003 **

8260

0.13^

41.17

[0.04, 0.21]

.006 **

Political violence

8555

0.10^

42.16

[0.01, 0.19]

.030 *

8467

0.13^

42.07

[0.01, 0.25]

.042 *

8453

0.10^

42.17

[0.02, 0.19]

.025 *

Environmental and public health

              

Drought, floods & extreme temperatures

7970

−0.06^

39.05

[−0.15, 0.04]

.262

7896

−0.21

39.04

[−0.32, −0.10]

<.001 ***

7880

−0.07^

38.95

[−0.16, 0.02]

.141

Pathogen prevalence

8364

0.02^

41.28

[−0.07, 0.12]

.614

8272

−0.07^

41.18

[−0.20, 0.06]

.322

8258

0.04^

41.28

[−0.06, 0.13]

.451

Food insecurity

8170

−0.09^

40.56

[−0.19, 0.00]

.058

8090

−0.06^

40.42

[−0.19, 0.07]

.397

8069

−0.12^

40.74

[−0.21, −0.03]

.010 **

Childhood mortality

8170

0.02^

40.46

[−0.08, 0.12]

.673

8090

0.01^

40.34

[−0.12, 0.14]

.873

8069

0.07^

40.55

[−0.02, 0.17]

.126

Life expectancy

8170

−0.06^

40.45

[−0.16, 0.03]

.215

8090

−0.05^

40.33

[−0.18, 0.09]

.493

8069

−0.10^

40.56

[−0.19, −0.01]

.039 *

Governance

               

Strength of democracy

8555

−0.06^

42.23

[−0.15, 0.04]

.244

8467

0.13^

42.16

[0.00, 0.25]

.051

8453

−0.05^

42.23

[−0.14, 0.04]

.260

Political stability

8555

−0.15

42.40

[−0.23, −0.07]

.001 **

8467

−0.08^

42.26

[−0.21, 0.04]

.195

8453

−0.14^

42.54

[−0.22, −0.06]

.001 **

Government effectiveness

8555

−0.20

42.34

[−0.28, −0.13]

<.001 ***

8467

−0.17

42.19

[−0.29, −0.06]

.006 **

8453

−0.18

42.51

[−0.26, −0.11]

<.001 ***

Rule of law

8555

−0.17

42.42

[−0.25, −0.09]

<.001 ***

8467

−0.19

42.26

[−0.23, 0.02]

.116

8453

−0.15

42.56

[−0.23, −0.07]

<.001 ***

Corruption control

8555

−0.18

42.40

[−0.25, −0.10]

<.001 ***

8467

−0.14^

42.24

[−0.26, −0.01]

.035 *

8453

−0.16

42.56

[−0.24, −0.09]

<.001 ***

Digital media landscape

               

Daily time spent on internet

8169

0.12^

40.49

[0.03, 0.21]

.010 **

8084

0.09^

40.31

[−0.04, 0.22]

.170

8069

0.13^

40.60

[0.04, 0.22]

.005 **

Daily time spent on social media

8169

0.12^

40.50

[0.03, 0.21]

.016 *

8084

0.07^

40.33

[−0.06, 0.20]

.292

8069

0.13^

40.63

[0.05, 0.22]

.005 **

Online media consistency

8555

−0.14^

42.08

[−0.22, −0.05]

.003 **

8467

−0.19

42.01

[−0.31, −0.08]

.002 **

8453

−0.11^

42.01

[−0.19, −0.02]

.017 *

  1. Each line indicates three separate LMMs with country-level variables predicting the (1) perceived climate of polarization, (2) perceived breakdown of leadership, and (3) perceived breakdown of social fabric. Predictors have been standardized (M = 0, SD = 1), so beta values represent expected change in the outcome variable (in raw units) for one SD increase in the predictor. All models control for demographic variables (see Supplementary Table 5 for model estimates without demographic controls). ^ indicates beta values below 0.15, which were estimated with lower precision given the available power. CI confidence interval. *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.
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