Fig. 6: Synthesis of probability ratios (left) and intensity changes (%: right) when comparing the return period and magnitudes of the 1 in 100-year MAM 4-day max precipitation over Rio Grande do Sul in the 2024 climate and a 1.2 °C cooler climate.

The best estimate for each dataset is shown by the central black line, with the uncertainty range given by the width of the bar (see Methods and references therein for full details). In a, the ‘!’ next to some model names shows where the upper bound was infinite, and the x-axis for probability ratio is capped at 10²⁰. In b, the number in brackets by each model shows the number of ensemble members included in the estimates of probability ratio and change in intensity.