Fig. 7: Synthesis of probability ratios (left) and intensity changes (%: right) when comparing the return period and magnitudes of the 1 in 100-year MAM 4-day max precipitation over Rio Grande do Sul in the current El Niño event and a neutral ENSO phase. | npj Natural Hazards

Fig. 7: Synthesis of probability ratios (left) and intensity changes (%: right) when comparing the return period and magnitudes of the 1 in 100-year MAM 4-day max precipitation over Rio Grande do Sul in the current El Niño event and a neutral ENSO phase.

From: Climate change and El Niño behind extreme precipitation leading to major floods in southern Brazil in 2024

Fig. 7

The best estimate for each dataset is shown by the central black line, with the uncertainty range given by the width of the bar (see Methods and references therein for full details). In a, the ‘!’ next to some model names shows where the upper bound was infinite. In b, the number in brackets by each model shows the number of ensemble members included in the estimates of probability ratio and change in intensity.

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