Fig. 9: Return period plots for the 4-day event for five observational and reanalysis datasets used in this study.

a CPC, b MSWEP, c CHIRPS, d GPCC, e BR-DWGD, f BR-DWGD (from 1979–onwards), in the current climate and scaled to a climate without anthropogenic warming, modelled using a Gumbel distribution. The observed event is shown by the highest red dot and the purple line labelled as the ‘observed event’ represents the 1 in 100-year event used in this analysis.