Table 1 Observed magnitude and return period of the 4-day accumulations in late April and early May 2024 and change in probability ratio and magnitude for 1 in 100-year 4-day accumulations in Rio Grande do Sul, due to both GMST and ENSO
Dataset | Observed event | Magnitude of 1 in 100-year event in 2024 climate (mm) | Influence of GMST (95% confidence intervals) | Influence of ENSO (95% confidence intervals) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magnitude (mm) | Return period | Probability Ratio | Change in magnitude (%) | Probability Ratio | Change in magnitude (%) | ||
CPC | 172.2 | 234.0 (22.46– inf) | 159.6 | 1.86 (0–inf) | 5.84 (−33.1–85.8) | 3.24 (1.29–inf) | 10.8 (3.14–23.22) |
MSWEP | 168.6 | 188.88 (20.58– inf) | 161.2 | 498.03 (0.0001–inf) | 30.57 (−18.2–108) | 4.90 (1.36–inf) | 10.66 (3.06–22.17) |
CHIRPS | 156.1 | 99.13 (14.76– inf) | 156.1 | Inf (0–inf) | 28.97 (−23.2–94.8) | 4.56 (0.81–inf) | 6.60 (-0.81–16.07) |
GPCC | 184.3 | 237.78 (23.81– inf) | 173.3 | 6376.1 (0.17–inf) | 38.67 (−12.3–117.6) | 5.13 (1.20–inf) | 11.27 (2.71–25.33) |
BR-DWGD | N/A | N/A | 147.8 | Inf (5.29–inf) | 38.82 (10.45–73.5) | 6.17 (1.21–inf) | 8.12 (1.18–15.66) |
BR-DWGD (1979 onwards) | N/A | N/A | 136.5 | 248.77 (0–inf) | 13.89 (−15.22– 62.01) | 8.60 (1.12–inf) | 7.79 (0.74–16.92) |
