Fig. 8: Results of counterfactual simulations.
From: A causal discovery and inference framework for on-demand food delivery delays
The figure reports simulation outcomes where specific timestamps are systematically shifted by Δ ∈ {1, 2, 3} min to emulate delays arising in a pickup, b transport, or c meal preparation. Simulations explicitly account for delay propagation within a delivery wave, so a delay in an earlier order can shift the arrival times of subsequent orders handled by the same courier. Results are stratified by baseline phase duration bins ([0, 10), [10, 20), 20+ min) and summarize the average increase in delivery delay relative to the baseline (Δ = 0).
