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  • Review Article
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Pathogens and planetary change

Nature Reviews Biodiversity volume 1, pages 32–49 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, and anthropogenic environmental change are interconnected crises with massive social and ecological costs. In this Review, we discuss how pathogens and parasites are responding to global change, and the implications for pandemic prevention and biodiversity conservation. Ecological and evolutionary principles help to explain why both pandemics and wildlife die-offs are becoming more common; why land-use change and biodiversity loss are often followed by an increase in zoonotic and vector-borne diseases; and why some species, such as bats, host so many emerging pathogens. To prevent the next pandemic, scientists should focus on monitoring and limiting the spread of a handful of high-risk viruses, especially at key interfaces such as farms and live-animal markets. But to address the much broader set of infectious disease risks associated with the Anthropocene, decision-makers will need to develop comprehensive strategies that include pathogen surveillance across species and ecosystems; conservation-based interventions to reduce human–animal contact and protect wildlife health; health system strengthening; and global improvements in epidemic preparedness and response. Scientists can contribute to these efforts by filling global gaps in disease data, and by expanding the evidence base for disease–driver relationships and ecological interventions.

Key points

  • Human activities have created a planetary polycrisis that includes pandemics, climate change and the sixth mass extinction.

  • Climate change, land change, agriculture and wildlife use — the major threats to biodiversity — are also driving a global rise in infectious diseases.

  • Biodiversity loss is generally harmful to human health.

  • Interventions that target spillover interfaces for high-risk pathogens, such as avian influenza or coronaviruses, could prevent some future pandemics.

  • Even with these interventions, investments in health systems and pandemic preparedness will be an important part of living in the Anthropocene.

  • The world needs better real-time biosurveillance infrastructure to track pathogens across species and ecosystems.

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Fig. 1: Temporal trends and hotspots.
Fig. 2: Two perspectives on land use as a driver of biodiversity loss and disease emergence.
Fig. 3: Case studies in biodiversity–disease–driver relationships.
Fig. 4: Biodiversity science as biosurveillance.

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Data availability

No original data were generated during the course of this study, but all data required to reproduce the figures here can be found at: https://github.com/viralemergence/pnpc.

Code availability

All code developed in this study can be found at: https://github.com/viralemergence/pnpc. The minimal statistical analysis and all other data and plotting related analysis were conducted in R version 4.3.2 (2023-10-31) (R Core Team 2023) using the rstanarm package (R Core Team 2023; Goodrich et al. 2024). All other packages we used are referenced in the repository’s README file.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank S. Hopkins, F. Keesing, R. Ostfeld, A. Phelan, Z. O’Donoghue, A. Sweeny, L. Damodaran and S. Seifert for helpful conversations and edits during the preparation of the manuscript. This work was supported by an National Science Foundation (NSF) Biology Integration Institute grant (DBI 2213854) to the Verena programme (viralemergence.org). C.J.C. was additionally supported by the NSF (SES 2314520).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA

    Colin J. Carlson, Cole B. Brookson, Torre Lavelle & Hailey Robertson

  2. Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada

    Cole B. Brookson & Timothée Poisot

  3. School of Biological Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

    Daniel J. Becker, Caroline A. Cummings, Alexis M. Heckley & Amanda Vicente-Santos

  4. Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK

    Rory Gibb

  5. Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Fletcher W. Halliday

  6. Department of Biology, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada

    Alexis M. Heckley

  7. School of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China

    Zheng Y. X. Huang

  8. Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA

    Ciara M. Weets

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Contributions

C.J.C., C.B.B., D.J.B., C.A.W. and T.P. researched data for the article. All authors contributed substantially to discussion of the content, wrote the article, and edited the manuscript before submission.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Colin J. Carlson.

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Competing interests

C.J.C. has previously received funding support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations; has been a consultant for the US Department of State on Global Health issues; and receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the US National Science Foundation for research related to the Pandemic Agreement. D.J.B. is a member of the Lancet-PPATS Commission on Prevention of Viral Spillover. The authors declare no other competing interests.

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Related links

GBIF: www.gbif.org

One Health High-Level Expert Panel: https://www.who.int/groups/one-health-high-level-expert-panel

One Health Joint Plan of Action (2022-2026): https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240059139

PREDICT: https://data.usaid.gov/Global-Health-Security-in-Development-GHSD-/PREDICT-Emerging-Pandemic-Threats-Project/tqea-hwmr/about_data

The Pathogen Harmonized Observatory (PHAROS) database: www.pharos.viralemergence.org

Verena: www.viralemergence.org

Supplementary information

Glossary

Arbovirus

A shorthand for arthropod-borne (such as mosquito-borne or tick-borne) virus.

Emerging infectious disease

An infectious disease that has recently undergone an expansion of host range, geographic range, impact or even just attention from scientific research or public health; this term is subjective, and is frequently used interchangeably with the terms zoonotic, vector-borne and environmentally transmitted diseases.

Epidemic

An infectious disease outbreak in humans, with a significant duration, size or impact.

Epizootic

An infectious disease outbreak in non-human animals, with a significant duration, size or impact.

Host competence

The ability of a host to amplify and transmit infection to another susceptible host or vector.

Macroparasite

Parasites that can be observed with the naked eye, such as ticks, fleas and some worms; the term is sometimes used interchangeably with the term parasites.

Microparasite

Microscopic parasites such as bacteria, viruses and some worms (for example, schistosomes); the term is sometimes used interchangeably with the term pathogens.

One Health

A principle that emphasizes the connections between human health, animal health and the environment, as well as the importance of solutions that benefit all three.

Pandemic

A high-impact global outbreak of a human infectious disease. This term is subjective; some sources use the term to capture any global outbreak, and others limit their definition based on the degree of circulation or mortality (see Supplementary Note 3 for all criteria we use).

Panzootic

A high-impact global outbreak of an infectious disease of animals.

Parasite

An organism that exists in an adversarial symbiotic relationship with a host.

Parasitoid

An organism that must kill a host to complete its life cycle (for example, braconid wasps).

Pathogen

An infectious microorganism that causes disease in a host.

Reservoir

Competent hosts that sustain pathogen transmission at the population or community level.

Spillback

Human-to-animal pathogen transmission (also called reverse zoonosis).

Spillover

Animal-to-human pathogen transmission.

Synanthropic

Living alongside humans (for example, in cities or human-built structures).

Vector-borne disease

A disease caused by a pathogen that is transmitted by an arthropod vector, such as a mosquito, tick or flea.

Zoonotic disease

A human infectious disease caused by a pathogen of animal origin.

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Carlson, C.J., Brookson, C.B., Becker, D.J. et al. Pathogens and planetary change. Nat. Rev. Biodivers. 1, 32–49 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-024-00005-w

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