Critical materials supply chain sustainability

Nunes and colleagues analyze supply chain constraints and climate consequences of new tailpipe emissions standards in the US. They find that the standards promote electric vehicle adoption and would reduce emissions significantly, but adoption may be constrained by critical mineral supplies.

Electric vehicle battery supply chains are currently vulnerable to supply disruptions in China, but research shows that the cumulative effect of multiple supply chain steps creates additional vulnerabilities across multiple critical battery minerals.

Battery recycling LCA shows that recycling can reduce 58% of environmental impacts of making mixed salt solutions compared to conventional mining. Electricity and hydrometallurgical processes dominate impacts and show improvement opportunities.

Binze Wang and colleagues reveal that hidden flows (overburden, waste rock, and tailings) in China’s car supply chain are 35 times greater than the final material use, with about half originating from overseas sources.

Resource scarcity and associated trade risks will limit China’s comprehensive energy transition; even with possible material substitution, the contribution of wind and solar power will be far from expected, yielding a big gap of carbon reductions.

Vespignani and Smyth present an economic theory of risk in critical minerals they term the “back-ended risk premium.” They apply AI approaches to reduce this risk premium and lower costs in energy transition.

A four-dimensional mine-level model for jointly produced metals captures interdependencies among copper, cobalt, and nickel markets. It challenges assumptions that by-products like cobalt cannot affect host metal markets, providing new insights into by-product economics and their implications for supply chain resilience.

A cost-based method to assess lithium-ion battery carbon footprints was developed, finding that sourcing nickel and lithium influences emissions more than production location. This aids in designing green industrial policy.

In 2020, foreign direct investment controlled significant portions of manganese, natural graphite, molybdenum, and vanadium, and increased investment reduced the supply risk of these critical minerals, according to an analysis that utilizes the supply risk index.

Wind power and electric vehicles enhance demand for rare earth element extraction thus indirectly enhancing water use, energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and impacting their sustainability, according to global dynamic material flow stock simulations.

Supply disruption, environmental and social impacts, resource depletion, circularity, and substitutability influence the sustainable supply of critical raw materials for water electrolysers and fuel cells, according to a perspective assessing different fuel cells and critical raw materials.

The decarbonization of energy systems requires access to minerals that are critical for manufacturing low-carbon technologies. Here researchers show that meeting climate targets could be impeded by material shortages, revealing the importance of diverse solutions that balance mitigation, equity and resource constraints.

The Inflation Reduction Act increases the competitiveness of US electric vehicle battery manufacturing and incentivizes supply chain diversification, but reducing vulnerabilities will depend on automaker choices in battery design and navigating regulations.

The US Inflation Reduction Act sets that in 2027, for an electric vehicle to be tax-credit eligible, 80% of the market value of critical minerals in its battery must be sourced domestically, from US free-trade partners or from North American recycling. The viability of the target is evaluated for different battery chemistries.

Sodium-ion batteries are considered a promising substitute for Li-ion, but the timeline and conditions for achieving cost-competitiveness remain uncertain. This study evaluates their techno-economic potential, showing that while challenging, they could compete with low-cost Li-ion batteries by the 2030s under specific conditions.

Powering electric vehicles hinges on the availability to extract lithium from reserves. Modelling now shows the likely number of new lithium deposit openings required by 2050 if the demand for larger battery packs continues and suggests moderating battery size and improving recycling to reduce mine openings.