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Climate-crop models to support opportunity crop adaptation in Africa

Climate-crop models are important tools for guiding investments and exploring adaptation strategies in climate-resilient agriculture. Here, the authors expand climate-crop model applications for 19 African opportunity crops, including cereals, legumes, oilseeds, roots/tubers, and vegetables.

Meijian Yang
Jose Rafael Guarin
Cynthia E. Rosenzweig
ResearchOpen Access17 Dec 2025
Nature Communications

Volume: 16, P: 1-13
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

Drivers of crop yield variability require quantification, and historical records can help in improving understanding. Here, Webber et al. report that drought stress will remain a key driver of yield losses in wheat and maize across Europe, and benefits from CO₂ will be limited in low-yielding years.

Heidi Webber
Frank Ewert
Daniel Wallach
ResearchOpen Access12 Oct 2018
Nature Communications

Volume: 9, P: 1-10
Modelling the productivity of opportunity crops across Africa under climate change in support of the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils

African opportunity crops show varied climate resilience, with several projected to outperform staples. Roots and tubers are especially resilient, while legumes and vegetables face declines, particularly in the Sahel.

Jose Rafael Guarin
Meijian Yang
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Research27 Nov 2025
Nature Plants

Volume: 11, P: 2476-2486
Effectiveness of using representative subsets of global climate models in future crop yield projections

Budong Qian
Qi Jing
Di Ma
ResearchOpen Access18 Oct 2021
Scientific Reports

Volume: 11, P: 1-12
Publisher Correction: Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature

Davide Cammarano
Sajad Jamshidi
Domenico Ronga
Amendments and Corrections07 Jul 2022
Nature Food

Volume: 3, P: 552
Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Enli Wang
Pierre Martre
Senthold Asseng
Amendments and Corrections03 Aug 2017
Nature Plants

Volume: 3, P: 1
Anticipating climate impacts on nutrition through climate–crop nutrient modelling

Climate change influences not only crop yields but also crop nutritional content, which is currently not simulated by process-based crop models. This Perspective proposes a way forward to integrate nutrients into crop models to assess climate impacts and highlights data needs.

Bianca Carducci
Jose Rafael Guarin
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Reviews31 Oct 2025
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 15, P: 1165-1172
Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature

The projected increase in temperature will decrease processing tomato production in the three main producing countries by 2050. Temperature increases and water resource constraints in the future might change the main processing tomato growing regions and shift the value chain in the coming decades.

Davide Cammarano
Sajad Jamshidi
Domenico Ronga
Research06 Jun 2022
Nature Food

Volume: 3, P: 437-444
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Climate change affects agricultural productivity. New systematic global agricultural yield projections of the major crops were conducted using ensembles of the latest generation of crop and climate models. Substantial shifts in global crop productivity due to climate change will occur within the next 20 years—several decades sooner than previous projections—highlighting the need for targeted food system adaptation and risk management in the coming decades.

Jonas Jägermeyr
Christoph Müller
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Research01 Nov 2021
Nature Food

Volume: 2, P: 873-885
Robust assessment of climatic risks to crop production

Yean-Uk Kim
Alex C. Ruane
Heidi Webber
Correspondence08 May 2025
Nature Food

Volume: 6, P: 415-416
The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is key to ensuring global food security. This Article develops temperature response functions that reduce error in grain yield by 19% to 50%.

Enli Wang
Pierre Martre
Senthold Asseng
Research17 Jul 2017
Nature Plants

Volume: 3, P: 1-13
Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

The impact of climate change on crop yield can be estimated using a variety of methods. Here, a multi-method ensemble is used to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ and improve overall confidence in projections of climate impacts on wheat yields.

Bing Liu
Senthold Asseng
Yan Zhu
Research12 Sept 2016
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 6, P: 1130-1136
Pathways for urgent action towards climate resilient development

There is a closing window of opportunity to ensure a sustainable future for all, with deep and rapid action needed this decade. Inclusive and just climate resilient development advances sustainable development and keeps open pathways to a liveable planet but requires urgent and fundamental shifts in prevailing development politics and practice.

Siri H. Eriksen
Nicholas P. Simpson
Frode Degvold
Comments & Opinion22 Nov 2024
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 14, P: 1212-1215
Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

Martre et al. found that to achieve the full yield potential of improved wheat varieties, nitrogen fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably increase the environmental impacts of wheat production.

Pierre Martre
Sibylle Dueri
Senthold Asseng
Research04 Jul 2024
Nature Plants

Volume: 10, P: 1081-1090
Author Correction: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Enli Wang
Pierre Martre
Senthold Asseng
Amendments and Corrections27 Sept 2017
Nature Plants

Volume: 3, P: 833
Land use modelling needs to better account for multiple cropping to inform pathways for sustainable agriculture

Multiple cropping has a significant impact on environmental and socioeconomic outcomes of farming, but is not fully considered in model-based assessments of sustainable agriculture

Katharina Waha
Christian Folberth
Qiangyi Yu
ReviewsOpen Access19 Sept 2025
Communications Earth & Environment

Volume: 6, P: 1-13
Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Earth system models project likely future climates, however, evaluation of their output is challenging. This Perspective discusses new evaluation approaches, considering both simulations and observations, to ensure credible information for decision-making.

Veronika Eyring
Peter M. Cox
Mark S. Williamson
Reviews07 Jan 2019
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 9, P: 102-110
Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO₂ concentrations on crop water productivity

Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce plant water use. Research now reveals regional disparities in this effect on crops, with potential implications for food production and water consumption.

Delphine Deryng
Joshua Elliott
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Research18 Apr 2016
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 6, P: 786-790
Pathways to identify and reduce uncertainties in agricultural climate impact assessments

Accurately assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity is key to the development of effective and sustainable adaptation strategies. This Perspective discusses the main sources of uncertainty in such impact assessments and proposes strategies for improved crop modelling.

Bin Wang
Jonas Jägermeyr
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Reviews15 Jul 2024
Nature Food

Volume: 5, P: 550-556
Understanding and managing connected extreme events

The impacts of extreme weather and climate can be amplified by physical interactions among events and across a complex set of societal factors. This Perspective discusses the concept and challenge of connected extreme events, exploring research approaches and decision-making strategies.

Colin Raymond
Radley M. Horton
Kathleen White
Reviews15 Jun 2020
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 10, P: 611-621
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset

Christoph Müller
Joshua Elliott
Hong Yang
ResearchOpen Access08 May 2019
Scientific Data

Volume: 6, P: 1-22

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