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Publically funded energy technology research is critical for a successful low–carbon energy transition, but future uncertainty means decision–making is difficult. This Review explores the role of expert elicitations, integrated assessment models and decision frameworks in informing energy technology policy.

Increasing solar photovoltaic and wind generation capacity beyond European 2030 targets could make electricity prices more stable, with reductions in sensitivity to fluctuations in the price of natural gas possibly outweighing the increasing influence of weather effects. Energy policies should account for the macroeconomic benefits of more stable energy prices as an important motivation for the deployment of renewables, in addition to their contribution to the mitigation of climate change.

The US National Labs will continue to play a crucial role in developing energy science and technology, yet their operation is not without its problems. Anadon et al. discuss the challenges faced by the Labs and propose changes that can help them to better meet their goals.

Startups funded by the US Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy filed patents at twice the rate of similar cleantech firms. The high-risk high-reward funding model has succeeded in advancing energy technology, but more is needed to help these innovative firms cross the valley of death and bring new cleantech products to market.

Increasing solar photovoltaic and wind generation capacity beyond European 2030 targets could make electricity prices more stable, with reductions in sensitivity to fluctuations in the price of natural gas possibly outweighing the increasing influence of weather effects.

Effective road transportation policies are key to tackling climate change and air pollution. This study assesses how the design, interactions, choice, and sequencing of 14 policy instruments affect innovation and environmental policy outcomes.

Decades of experience must inform future initiatives, urge Gabriel Chan and colleagues.

President Trump has proposed severe cuts to US government spending on energy research, development and demonstration, but Congress has the ‘power of the purse’ and can rescue US energy innovation. If serious cuts are enacted, the pace of innovation will slow, harming the economy, energy security and global environmental quality.

From 2003 to 2020, the efficiency of white light-emitting diodes rose from 6% to 39%, while costs fell by 96%. Weinold et al. explore the drivers of such rapid progress to formulate lessons for future clean energy innovation.

Carbon markets are key in climate strategies, but only 16% of carbon credits represent real emission reductions, based on a study of 2,346 projects. Reforms are needed to improve the effectiveness of carbon crediting mechanisms in addressing climate change.

Public funding and institutions for energy innovation are critical to achieving climate goals, but our understanding of their evolution, variation and drivers is limited. Meckling et al. compile funding and institutional data across major economies and examine how they changed after the financial crisis, Mission Innovation and expanded competition with China.

Decision makers need sector-specific, policy-focused, dynamic economic models with rich representations of technological progress. These allow them to understand how the energy transition is likely to unfold with different policies and what its impacts might be. A new generation of models is emerging to meet these demands, but more action is needed.

Analyses of the relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits across the tundra and over time show that community height increased with warming across all sites, whereas other traits lagged behind predicted rates of change.

In 2014 China proposed an ultra-low emissions policy for coal-fired power plants to reduce emissions. Using comprehensive nationwide stack emissions monitoring data, Tang et al. show reductions in excess of 60% for SO₂, NO_x and particulate matter emissions since 2014, even as power generation overall increased.

Most of the greenhouse gas emissions embedded in China’s exports come from provinces with carbon-intensive energy mixes. Reducing the carbon intensity of production in these regions is a targeted means of addressing the climate–trade dilemma.

Local content requirements are designed to promote development of local industry; however, their economic and technological benefits are not well understood. Using data from Indian solar photovoltaic auctions, Probst et al. show the economic costs and technical benefits of local content requirements in energy auctions.

Clean energy technology manufacturing relies on global value chains, yet the patterns of these chains are poorly understood, obscuring the underlying drivers. Surana et al. analyse data on wind power global value chains to assess how technology complexity shapes the location of suppliers and evolves over time.

Ambitious policy instruments are needed to support the transition to low-carbon economies. This systematic review identifies what we know about positive and negative impacts of ten selected instruments on environmental, technological and socioeconomic outcomes, and how to minimize negative impacts.

The Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy aims to fund high-risk high-reward clean energy technology in the United States, but evaluating its impact is difficult. Goldstein et al. compare startups that won Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy funding to other cleantech startups, and find that Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy awardees tend to gain more patents but that more is needed to help them overcome the valley of death.