Predicting the future global distribution of vector-borne diseases is a complex task that depends on the generation of accurate mathematical models. Here, Messina and colleagues compare and contrast the main approaches that have been used to predict the future distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.
- Jane P. Messina
- Oliver J. Brady
- Simon I. Hay