Fig. 1: Region for observational constraints.

a Total forest tree biomass in 195033. Black dots indicate grids with total biomass over 100 Mt. The middle and right panels indicate spatial patterns of inter-model Pearson’s correlation coefficients between the past 1980–2014 Thist trend and future changes in (b) precipitation ∆Pft and (c) climate-driven changes in NEPft estimated from the difference between fully coupled (COU) and biogeochemically coupled (BGC) simulations, respectively. We drew only correlations that are significant (p < 0.1 based on Welch’s t test). Here, N = 20 (SSP5-8.5 by 8 models and 1pctCO2 by 12 models).