Fig. 5: Changes in core temperature and heart rate with increasing ambient heat stress in the climate chamber studies.

Figure shows the model-predicted relation between the change in core temperature (top, red) and heart rate (bottom, purple) with increasing heat index in studies exposing participants to ambient heat stress in a climate chamber (k = 68 studies, n = 103 effect estimates). Model predictions are presented as means (lines) and robust 95% confidence intervals (shaded ribbons). Heat index was modeled via a restricted cubic (natural) spline. Predictions for a model in which heat index was included as a linear term are also shown (dark grey dashed lines). Models were adjusted for sample mean age and the duration of heat stress. Model outputs are shown for a hypothetical study with a sample mean age of 27 years and 100 min of heat exposure (based on the sample size-weighted medians of the analyzed studies). Model diagnostics are provided in supplemental Figures S51–S66 (pp 112–127). Model estimates and P-values (reported in the main text) were not adjusted for multiple comparisons. Individual effect estimates (grey bubbles) are sized according to their weight in the meta-analytic model. The marginal distribution of the individual effect estimates (unweighted) is depicted on the right side of the panel.