Fig. 1: Model fit to HIV surveillance data for MSM in the Netherlands.
From: Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics
a Incidence of new HIV diagnoses per 100,000 persons per year, b estimated total number of undiagnosed HIV infections, including importations from abroad, c incidence of new HIV infections acquired in the country per 100,000 persons per year, and d contribution to the mean new HIV infections by status of the source of HIV infection. The red dots and the error bars correspond to the mean estimates and the 95% confidence intervals reported by SHM2. The mean trajectories estimated from the model are shown as orange lines. The shaded regions correspond to 95% credible intervals based on 100 samples from the joint posterior parameter distribution.
