Fig. 5: Projections of HIV dynamics under the HIV eradication scenario.
From: Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics
a New HIV infections (primary infections in naive individuals), b new HIV re-infections (secondary infections in cured individuals), c HIV prevalence (proportion of individuals with HIV), and d cure coverage (proportion of cured individuals among all eligible) for different cure uptakes. The legend for different curves shown in d corresponds to all panels. The red vertical arrows indicate the cure introduction. The mean trajectories from the model are shown as solid lines. The shaded regions correspond to 95% credible intervals based on 100 samples from the joint posterior parameter distribution. Different shades of green correspond to different cure uptakes. The projections of the model without a cure are shown in orange. Parameters: efficacy of 90% (proportion of individuals for whom the intervention was successful) and a 3-month diagnostic delay of re-infections in individuals who achieved HIV eradication.
