Table 2 Characteristics for each grid type modelled in LEAP-Canada²⁷ for generation expansion planning

High renewable energy (HighRE) grid

The hydropower capacity reaches 10 Gigawatts (GW) by 2050²⁷. The remaining capacity requirements are met by natural gas combined and open-cycle gas turbines, wind, and solar. The renewable energy share in the generation mix is 40% and 71% by 2030 and 2050, respectively.

High natural gas (HighNG) grid

There is early retirement and conversion of coal facilities (~2.4 GW) between 2021 and 2023, achieved primarily through increasing the use of natural gas combined and open-cycle gas turbines. The renewable energy share in the capacity mix also increases to 28% and 54% by 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Baseline (for model validation)

Renewable energy technology capacities (like wind, solar, and hydro), coal retirements, and coal-to-gas plant retrofit/conversions are aligned with the reference projections in the AESO Long Term Outlook (LTO) report⁷². LEAP-Canada endogenously adds or retires all other technology capacities, and these results are compared with the 2019 AESO LTO reference scenario to validate the model.