Fig. 4: Probability distribution of expected cost components for Puerto Rico’s power system in 2050 across the Business as Usual (BAU), Fully Renewable (FR), and Fully Decarbonized (FD) scenarios under multiple sources of epistemic uncertainty.

Panel a shows the distributions of total system costs, reflecting combined operational, damage, and outage costs. Panel b depicts operational cost distributions, representing expenses directly associated with electricity generation and system operation. Panel c presents damage cost distributions, which capture the expected costs of infrastructure repair following hurricane-related impacts. Panel d shows outage cost distributions, representing the economic losses caused by power supply interruptions. Distributions in all panels exhibit substantial overlap between scenarios, indicating that under the considered uncertainties, no single pathway guarantees the lowest cost with high confidence.