Fig. 5: Global sensitivity analysis of per-unit expected total and operational costs for the Business as Usual (BAU), Fully Renewable (FR), and Fully Decarbonized (FD) scenarios.
From: Identifying key uncertainties in energy transitions with a Puerto Rico case study
Panel a shows the Sobol total sensitivity indices for per-unit total system costs. Panel b presents the corresponding indices for per-unit operational costs. In all cases, only a few dominant uncertainties, most notably changes in hurricane frequency and organizational inefficiency for total costs, and key fuel or O&M parameters for operational costs. Abbreviations in the figures are defined as follows: O& M means Operations and Maintenance; CAPEX means Capital Expenditure; NG means Natural Gas; Bio means Biofuel; PV means Photovoltaic; URN235 means Uranium-235.
