Westerly jet waviness modulates mid-latitude hydroclimate variability

Cheng, Liangqing; Zhang, Jingran; Wu, Yubin; Cheng, Jun; Yi, Liang; Zhang, Zhigang; Long, Hao

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-65904-8

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Published: 23 November 2025

Westerly jet waviness modulates mid-latitude hydroclimate variability

Nature Communications volume 16, Article number: 10928 (2025) Cite this article

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Abstract

The mid-latitude ecological environment is highly vulnerable, and increasing hydroclimate variability poses a significant threat to it. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain unclear due to short observational records and climate model biases. Here, we present a sub-millennial resolution precipitation record spanning the past ~5.7 million years (Myr), derived from a 300.8-meter fluvio-lacustrine sediment core in mid-latitude East Asia (northern China). Our results reveal a persistent influence of the westerly jet on mid-latitude precipitation since the Pliocene, as well as a marked reduction in mid-latitude precipitation variability alongside amplified low-latitude variability after ~3 million years ago (Ma). Based on idealized sensitivity simulations, we attribute the amplified mid-latitude precipitation variability before ~3 Ma to enhanced westerly jet waviness driven by Arctic warming. Given projected increases in jet waviness under future global warming, we predict more frequent hydroclimate extremes in mid-latitude regions.

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Introduction

Global mean precipitation has increased over the past century due to global warming¹. However, a more critical concern is the progressively increasing precipitation variability (Fig. 1b; Supplementary Fig. 1)^2,3,4,5,6. Amplified precipitation variability leads to frequent transitions between extreme dry and wet conditions, posing formidable threats to livelihoods and socio-economic development⁴—particularly in mid-latitude regions with fragile ecosystems.

**Fig. 1: Study area’s location, climate, and schematic diagram for the impact of westerly jet waviness on precipitation variability.**

Substantial research efforts in recent decades have characterized precipitation patterns across various timescales in mid-latitude regions^{7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16}. However, few studies have specifically examined precipitation variability. Current understanding of mid-latitude precipitation variability primarily depends on modern observations and climate models outputs. Two dominant but contested mechanisms have been proposed to explain increased precipitation variability (Supplementary Fig. 1): (1) increased atmospheric moisture content associated with rising global CO₂ levels³, and (2) enhanced waviness of the westerly jet (Fig. 1b)^{17,18,19,20,21,22}. The CO₂ mechanism finds stronger support in climate modeling studies^1,23,24,25, while the jet waviness hypothesis relies more on statistical correlations from observational and reanalysis data with plausible physical mechanisms^26,27. Furthermore, the relatively prominent mid-latitude precipitation variability (Supplementary Fig. 1) also underscores the importance of the westerly jet in driving this variability. Disentangling the relative contributions of jet waviness and atmospheric CO₂ concentration to mid-latitude precipitation variability remains challenging. Some modeling studies even suggest that observed trends in jet waviness may reflect internal climate variability rather than a persistent signal^28,29,30,31. These short observational records and climate model biases contribute substantial uncertainty to projections of mid-latitude precipitation variability^26,32.

This study presents a sub-millennial resolution precipitation records spanning the past 5.7 million years (Pliocene to Pleistocene) (Supplementary Fig. 2; Supplementary Note 1), derived from a 300.8-meter sedimentary core composed primarily of fluvial and lacustrine deposits (Supplementary Fig. 3) from the Datong Basin (40°03′N, 113°26′E; 1043 m above sea level) in the Chinese loess plateau (CLP), mid-latitude East Asia (Fig. 1a; Supplementary Fig. 4; Supplementary Note 2). This region exhibits exceptional sensitivity of the westerly jet to global climate change (see below). Contrary to conventional views, our records reveal a significant intensification of precipitation commencing at ~3 Ma, coinciding with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion. Crucially, we provide the evidence that Pliocene-Pleistocene precipitation was primarily controlled by a 1.2 Myr obliquity amplitude modulation (AM) cycle. This orbital signal simultaneously paced summer meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in both the North Atlantic and Pacific as well as the westerly jet stream. Through idealized climate simulations combined with geological proxy integration, we demonstrate that mid-latitude precipitation was modulated by westerly jet intensity, which in turn responded to meridional summer insolation gradients and Northern Hemisphere ice volume. Our quantitative analysis of precipitation variability (see Methods), based on moving standard deviation calculations, reveals a striking contrast between epochs: mid-latitude precipitation variability was significantly amplified during the Pliocene (pre-3 Ma) compared to the Pleistocene (post-3 Ma), exhibiting an inverse relationship with low-latitude patterns. We propose that this enhanced Pliocene mid-latitude hydroclimate variability primarily resulted from increased westerly jet waviness rather than elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

Results and discussion

Westerly jet influences mid-latitude precipitation at ~ 3 Ma

Sedimentary facies analysis of the core reveals three distinct depositional stages, documenting water-level fluctuations and hydroclimate conditions in the closed-basin system of Datong (see Methods). These stages are consistently supported by covariations in grain size, sediment color, and elemental composition (Supplementary Fig. 3). All results indicate enhanced precipitation after ~3 Ma compared to earlier periods. The Sr/Ca ratio (Fig. 2a) emerges as the most sensitive and high-resolution precipitation proxy, and was therefore selected as a representative proxy for further analysis. This wetting trend is corroborated by: (1) deep-core records from the nearby North China Plain (Fig. 2b, c)^33,34,35, and (2) aeolian sequences from the CLP (Fig. 2d)^36,37, collectively indicating a regional shift toward wetter conditions in mid-latitude East Asia after ~3 Ma. The significantly lower (higher) content of goethite (hematite) in red clay than in the overlying loess and paleosol³⁸ also indicated increased precipitation over the CLP after ~3 Ma, for that warm and dry conditions favored the formation of hematite, while cold and wet conditions favored the formation of goethite^39,40,41. Comparable hydroclimate changes are evident in European mid-latitude records⁴². Notably, Central Asia exhibited an opposite trend^10,43, becoming drier after ~3 Ma (Fig. 2e) , although it is also located in the mid-latitudes.

**Fig. 2: Hydroclimate and paleoenvironmental proxies spanning the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (~3 Ma) and related stimulation results.**

The Datong Basin’s water vapor is primarily transported by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) (Supplementary Fig. 1). While Tibetan Plateau uplift has influenced precipitation through intensifying EASM⁴⁴, the timing remains debated for the Late Pliocene⁴⁵. Nevertheless, the EASM reached its modern northern boundary as early as ~26 Ma⁴⁶, suggesting plateau uplift played a minimal role in increased precipitation after ~3 Ma. The observed wetting trend after ~3 Ma was accompanied by a significant expansion of Northern Hemisphere ice volume (Fig. 2g–i)^47,48,49 and a considerable decrease in atmospheric CO₂⁵⁰. To investigate this relationship, we conducted idealized sea-ice sensitivity experiments (see Methods) and analyzed ice sheet and greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced precipitation anomalies using the TraCE-21ka (Simulation of the Transient Climate of the Last 21,000 Years) dataset⁵¹, derived from a fully coupled simulation experiment using the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3). The resulting precipitation anomalies forced by increased sea ice exhibit a meridional tripolar pattern over East Asia (Fig. 2j), matching both modern observations (Supplementary Fig. 1) and geological records of summer precipitation changes across the ~3 Ma transition. This pattern includes: (1) drying in mid-latitude Central Asia (Fig. 2e)^10,43 and low-latitude Southeast Asia (Fig. 2f)⁵², and (2) wetting in mid-latitude East Asia (Fig. 2a–d). These results are broadly consistent with both the ice-sheet-forced precipitation anomalies in the TraCE-21ka simulation (Supplementary Fig. 5) and a CESM1.0.4 (Community Earth System Model version 1.0.4) experiment that simulated increased sea ice under Pliocene conditions (Supplementary Fig. 6)⁵³. In contrast, the precipitation anomalies forced by reduced GHG exhibit patterns completely opposite to those documented in the geological records across East Asia (Supplementary Fig. 5). This discrepancy effectively rules out a dominant influence of CO₂ on precipitation changes during the ~3 Ma transition. The sea ice sensitivity experiments were not fully coupled, but only the atmospheric model was run (see Methods), thus, the mechanistic discussion can only focus on atmospheric processes. Although the intensification of the EASM (Fig. 2j) can transport more moisture, where this moisture ultimately precipitates is primarily controlled by convective conditions^54,55. Increased precipitation after ~3 Ma over mid-latitude East Asia (Fig. 2j) was thus mainly attributed to the enhanced ascending motion of the air (Fig. 2l) caused by the strengthened westerly jet (Fig. 2k). This influence of the westerly jet on East Asia precipitation has been proved by multiple climate models^54,56,57,58. A similar mechanism likely explains European mid-latitude wetting⁴², where the westerly jet dominates moisture transport²². Conversely, Central Asia’s drying reflects reduced atmospheric water content despite westerly moisture transport^11,15,59,60. These findings collectively demonstrate the westerly jet’s dominant control on mid-latitude precipitation patterns at ~3 Ma.

Westerly jet influences orbital timescale mid-latitude precipitation

Spectral analysis of the Sr/Ca ratio identifies conventional Milankovitch cycles, including 100 kyr and 400 kyr eccentricity, 40 kyr obliquity, 20 kyr precession, and 10 kyr half-precession cycles (Fig. 3; Supplementary Figs. 7, 8). These orbital cycles are known to dominate East Asian precipitation dynamics on different timescales^7,9,61,62,63. Notably, our analysis reveals two significant obliquity AM cycles (173 kyr and 1.2 Myr) that are rarely documented in Pliocene-Pleistocene East Asian precipitation records. These long-period cycles have been demonstrated to influence: (1) Triassic sea-level variations⁶⁴, (2) Paleocene-Eocene precipitation patterns in mid-latitude East Asia⁶⁵, and (3) Miocene-Pliocene hydroclimate in mid-latitude Central Asia^66,67.

**Fig. 3: Orbital-scale climate variations showing the 1.2 Myr amplitude modulation (AM) cycle and related stimulation results.**

The precipitation record from the Datong core is predominantly characterized by a 1.2 Myr cycle (Fig. 3e, f, j, k; Supplementary Figs. 7, 8). Obliquity plays a fundamental role in controlling the latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. During summer months, higher obliquity increases insolation at high latitudes while decreasing it at low latitudes⁶⁸, thereby reducing the meridional insolation gradient. Crucially, the 1.2 Myr cycle dominates the AM of summer insolation gradients between 45°N and 20°N (Fig. 3c, d). Using alkenone (U^K’₃₇) as a proxy for summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs)⁶⁹, our calculated summer North Pacific and Atlantic meridional SST gradients since the Pliocene similarly exhibit a dominant 1.2 Myr cycle (Fig. 3g, i, l, n). Given the well-established sensitivity of the westerly jet to meridional temperature gradients^{17,70,71,72,73}, we propose that the 1.2 Myr precipitation cycle in the CLP is mechanistically linked to obliquity-forced variations in the summer westerly jet, since the EASM intensity, influenced by land-sea thermal contrast, is mainly modulated by precession^61,74,75. Further supporting this connection, the 1.2 Myr cycle is also evident in: (1) Variations of Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength (Supplementary Fig. 9), which is modulated by the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet⁷⁶, and (2) Miocene-Pliocene precipitation patterns in westerly-dominated Central Asia^66,67. Notably, this 1.2 Myr climatic rhythm operates independently of Northern Hemisphere ice volume variations, as evidenced by its absence in benthic δ¹⁸O records (Supplementary Fig. 10)⁴⁹.

To elucidate the relationships among obliquity, westerly jet dynamics, and precipitation patterns, we conducted fully coupled idealized obliquity sensitivity experiments (see Methods). Our simulations reveal a meridional tripolar precipitation anomaly pattern over East Asia under increased obliquity forcing (Fig. 3o). Notably, the precipitation decrease in mid-latitude East Asia appears unrelated to the EASM intensification, as evidenced by concurrent southerly wind anomalies (Fig. 3o). The most substantial westerly jet modifications occur precisely in this region (Fig. 3q), where obliquity-forced jet weakening reduces ascending air motion (Supplementary Fig. 11), ultimately decreasing precipitation. As obliquity sensitivity experiments are fully coupled, we also observed anomalies of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) (Supplementary Fig. 12) and the Walker circulation (Supplementary Fig. 13). The increased obliquity causes the WPSH to shift eastward. The eastward-shifted WPSH is unlikely to lead to decreased precipitation in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. Therefore, changes in the WPSH are not the primary cause of precipitation changes in East Asia. Although the increased obliquity results in a reduced zonal temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific (Supplementary Fig. 14), leading to a weaker Walker Circulation (Supplementary Fig. 13), the weaker Walker Circulation only causes a reduction in near-surface wind speeds east of 160°W in the equatorial Pacific (Supplementary Fig. 14), rather than a weakening of the EASM. Thus, changes in the Walker Circulation are also not the main cause of precipitation changes. An important discrepancy emerges between our simulation results and proxy records: while increased obliquity forces reduced meridional temperature gradients and mid-latitude East Asia precipitation in our experiments (Fig. 3o, p), the 1.2 Myr band shows higher precipitation corresponding to larger SST gradients (Fig. 3). Only when the climate has a non-linear response to the obliquity, or when the proxies have a non-linear response to the climate, can the 1.2 Myr and 173 kyr cycles be recorded (Supplementary Fig. 15). We attribute this apparent contradiction to nonlinear proxy responses to precipitation/lake levels⁷⁷. Extremely low or high obliquity values are absent during periods of low AM of obliquity, whereas extreme values occur when the AM is high (Fig. 3a). Owing to the nonlinear response of proxies to precipitation or lake levels⁷⁷, such changes are recorded only when they cross special thresholds. For example, soil magnetic parameters are insensitive to precipitation below 500 mm/year⁷⁸. In mid-latitude East Asia, recorded precipitation/lake level could be attributed to extreme low-obliquity conditions during 1.2 Myr obliquity AM maxima. Within the 173 kyr and 1.2 Myr bands, precipitation variations recorded in the Datong core are in phase with those from the Lop Nur core^10,67 and Aktau section⁶⁶, all of which are influenced by summer precipitation in the modern climate system. In contrast, obliquity sensitivity simulation experiments suggest that their precipitation variations are anti-phase within the obliquity band, which supports our hypothesis.

Our simulations demonstrate that increased obliquity leads to increased temperatures but reduced precipitation in mid-latitude East Asia. This inverse temperature-precipitation relationship would inevitably attenuate obliquity-cycle signals in proxies sensitive to both parameters, such as soil magnetic susceptibility⁷⁸. In contrast, the Sr/Ca ratio from the Datong core exhibits a pronounced 40 kyr cyclicity that dominates over the 100 kyr and 20 kyr components (Supplementary Fig. 7), despite uncertainties in phase relationships due to age-model limitations. This obliquity dominance is further supported by recent Sr/Ca records from aeolian deposits, which demonstrate persistent obliquity control on the CLP precipitation throughout the past 1.5 Myr⁶³. These findings collectively suggest that the influence of obliquity and associated westerly jet dynamics on East Asian mid-latitude precipitation has been systematically underestimated in previous studies.

Currently, mid-latitude North America lacks long precipitation records capable of resolving hydroclimate changes across the ~3 Ma transition or obliquity AM cycles. While the North American summer monsoon contributes to moisture transport, the westerly jet has been established as the dominant control on precipitation patterns in this region⁷⁹. Both modern observations and climate model simulations demonstrate the westerly jet’s significant influence on precipitation variability across all mid-latitude regions^80,81,82. Building on this evidence, we propose that the summer westerly jet has played a fundamental role in regulating mid-latitude precipitation across multiple timescales.

Enhanced waviness of westerly jet increased mid-latitude precipitation variability

Precipitation variability, estimated using moving standard deviation (see Methods), shows a significant decrease after ~3 Ma in mid-latitude Datong Core (Fig. 4b), G3 core (Fig. 4c), Lop Nor core (Fig. 4d) records. Increased atmospheric moisture due to rising global atmospheric CO₂ level³ and enhanced waviness of the westerly jet (Fig. 1d)^18,20 are the two most debated forcing mechanisms that have contributed to the increased precipitation variability in mid-latitude region. Conditions after ~3 Ma featured lower atmosphere CO₂ (Fig. 4h)^50,83 and expanded ice volume (Fig. 4g)^49,84, which climate models suggest should reduce atmospheric moisture and suppress global precipitation variability^1,23,24,25. However, while mid-latitude East and Central Asia show dampened variability (Fig. 4b–d), low-latitude Africa and Southeast Asia exhibit amplified variability (Fig. 4e, f), indicating that CO₂-driven moisture changes cannot explain the regional differences. We attribute the reduced mid-latitude precipitation variability after ~3 Ma primarily to decreased westerly jet waviness (Fig. 1d). Expanded Northern Hemisphere ice sheets⁸⁵ increased meridional temperature gradients⁸⁶, strengthening and straightening the westerly jet^{19,26,87,88,89}. The results of our sea ice sensitivity simulations also demonstrate that increased sea ice can lead to a reduction in the waviness of the westerly jet (Supplementary Fig. 16). Modern observations confirm that jet waviness enhances mid-latitude precipitation variability (Fig. 1c, d)^18,20,22,90. Conversely, low-latitude variability increases may relate to amplified global ice volume fluctuations (Fig. 4g). These findings provide critical insights for future climate projections. The Pliocene (before ~3 Ma) with slightly higher temperature and similar atmospheric CO₂ concentrations to the present is considered as an analogy near-future climate⁹¹. Therefore, we anticipate increased mid-latitude hydroclimate extremes as global warming enhances summer westerly jet waviness, supported by simulated results through climate models from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under the high-emissions future scenario SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5- Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) (Supplementary Note 4; Supplementary Fig. 17).

Fig. 4: Precipitation variabilities, global ice volume, and atmosphere CO2. — **Fig. 4: Precipitation variabilities, global ice volume, and atmosphere CO₂.**

Methods

Paleomagnetic and luminescence dating

Three oriented samples with dimensions of 2 × 2 × 2 cm³ were collected from the same stratigraphic level at intervals of 30–100 cm. A total of 300 samples were subjected to progressive alternating field demagnetization (AFD) at peak fields of up to 80 mT (Supplementary Fig. 18). Additionally, 304 samples underwent hybrid demagnetization (HD), which involved sequential treatments: (1) thermal demagnetization (TD) from 80 °C to 150 °C, (2) progressive AFD from 5 mT to 40 mT, and (3) progressive TD from 200 °C to 690 °C (Supplementary Fig. 18). Progressive demagnetization was conducted using the TD-48SC thermal demagnetizer and 2 G Enterprises Model 755-4 K cryogenic magnetometer in a magnetically shielded room (<150 nT) at the Tongji University. Stable characteristic remanent magnetizations were successfully identified in 148 AFD samples (~50% effective rate) and 236 HD samples (~80% effective rate). The magnetic polarity sequence shows that the Datong core revealed eight normal (N1–N8) and eight reversed (R1–R8) polarity zones (Supplementary Fig. 3). The depth correlations of Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) and Matuyama/Gauss (M/G) boundaries of the Datong core with those observed in surrounding sedimentary sections confirm the reliability of the paleomagnetic age determination (Supplementary Note 3; Supplementary Fig. 19). Six samples were collected from the top 4.6 m of the core for coarse-grained K-feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR_50,290) dating (Supplementary Fig. 20). Luminescence measurement was conducted using a Risø model DA-20 TL/OSL reader in the luminescence dating laboratory at the School of geography, Nanjing Normal University. Dose rate was measured using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) at Nanjing University.

Grain-size, color, and element analysis

A total of 2610 samples were collected at 10–20 cm intervals for grain size analysis. For pretreatment, 10% H₂O₂ and 10% HCl were used to remove organic matter and carbonates, respectively. Subsequently, 10 ml of 0.05 mol/L sodium hexametaphosphate (NaPO₃)₆ was added to disperse samples, which were then treated in an ultrasonic vibrator for 10 minutes. Grain size was measured using a Malvern Mastersizer 3000 laser particle-size analyzer. Prior to measurement, gravel fractions (>2000 μm) are removed to prevent instrument damage. A total of 300 samples were taken at ~1 m intervals for color analysis. Before measuring, all samples were ground to grain sizes <74 μm (200 mesh) and pressed into a hollow ground slide. Color reflectance was measured using a portable Minolta CM-700d spectrophotometer. Both grain size and color reflectance experiments were conducted at the School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University. Element data of the Datong core were obtained by scanning at 1 cm intervals using a Geotech MSCL-XRF core scanner at the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Implication of grain size, color, and Sr/Ca ratio

The red coloration in fluvial-lacustrine sediments generally represents an oxidizing environment with enriched Fe³⁺ and low lake level, greenish-gray reflects the reductive environment with enriched Fe²⁺ and high lake level, and yellow reflects semi-oxidizing and semi-reducing environments with simultaneous presence of Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺, and lower lake level than that reflected by greenish-gray, and higher lake level than that reflected by red³⁹. Based on the color changes observed in the Datong core photographs, redness (a*), and yellowness (b*) (Supplementary Fig. 3), three distinct stages of lake levels are identified. Stage I, at the depths of ~300.8–110 m is with the lowest lake level. Stage II, at the depths of ~110–80 m is with the highest lake level. Stage III, at the depths of ~80–0 m is with a lower lake level than Stage II, higher lake level than Stage I. Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ remain in solution under reducing condition, as conditions become more oxidized, more Fe goes into the sediment due to the greater reducibility of Fe²⁺ than Mn²⁺. Therefore, Fe/Mn ratio can also reflect redox condition⁹². The highest Fe/Mn ratio occurred at the Stage I reflects the most oxidizing environment, supporting redox conditions reflected by the color. However, Fe/Mn ratio does not distinguish difference of redox conditions between Stage I and Stage III. High mean grain size and coarse fraction reflect fluvial facies with low lake level, low mean grain size and coarse fraction reflect lacustrine facies with high lake level. Therefore, mean grain size and sand fraction can reflect the lake level. Additionally, Ca and Sr have the same valence, similar radius, and similar chemical properties. In fluvial-lacustrine sediments, Ca and Sr are associated with carbonate minerals⁹³. As the lake level deepens, the Ca and Sr content increases significantly at about 210 m (Supplementary Fig. 3), further indicating that they exist mainly in secondary carbonates. At increased salinity levels, carbonate tends to incorporate more Sr into its crystal structure⁹⁴. Therefore, a higher Sr/Ca ratio reflects higher salinity levels, and thus lower lake level⁹⁵. In Datong core, the higher Sr/Ca corresponds closely to higher mean grain size and sand faction. At the Stage II with the highest lake-level, mean grain size, sand fraction, and Sr/Ca ratio simultaneously reached lowest values. Besides, Sr/Ca ratio also reveals the characteristics of the stage changes revealed by core color (Supplementary Fig. 3). The removement of gravel (>2000 μm) fraction prior to grain size measurement could have resulted in that mean grain size and sand fraction not revealing the stage changes, but this does not affect the discussion of cycles in any way. Although changes in the sources of the clastic materials could influence explaining of these proxies, the provenance in the Datong Basin was found to be unchanged since 5.8 Ma⁹⁶. In this study, mean grain size and sand content can reflect change cycle of lake level, while Sr/Ca ratio can reflect not only the change cycle, but also the change magnitude of lake level. In East Asia, there is a close relationship between lake level and precipitation over different timescales^97,98, supported by water-and-energy balance model⁹⁹. These proxies were therefore further used to reflect the precipitation over East Asia.

Age model

Luminescence measurements (Supplementary Fig. 20) indicate that the signal at depth of 3.7 m is close to saturation, while the signal at 0.9 m may have been influenced by modern processes. Eventually, only the ages at depths of 1.7 m and 2.8 m (Supplementary Table S1), together with 15 paleomagnetic age markers, were used to establish the initial age model by linear interpolation and extrapolation. Spectral analysis of mean grain size based on this initial age model revealed dominant cycles of 1.2 Myr, 400 kyr and 173 kyr (Supplementary Fig. 8). Thus, we isolated the 1.2 Myr, 400 kyr, and 173 kyr components using band-passing filters, and compared them with the AM cycle of precession and obliquity (Supplementary Fig. 21). It was observed that obliquity and precession nodes—characterized by the absence of extremely low/high obliquity and precession values—correspond to intervals of large mean grain size. Therefore, we fine-tuned the initial age model by aligning peaks of filtered mean grain size to troughs of the stacked 1.2 Myr, 400 kyr, and 173 kyr AM cycle to obtain the new age model (Supplementary Fig. 22). Analysis based on both the new and initial age models revealed a weakening of the 400 kyr and 173 kyr signals of mean grain size after ~3 Ma (Supplementary Fig. 8). Noteworthily, 125 kyr and 93 kyr cycles, corresponding to AM cycles of precession, were identified in the mean grain size data based on new age model (Supplementary Fig. 8). The Sr/Ca ratio based on new age model reveals obliquity (40 kyr), precession (20 kyr), and half precession (10-kyr) cycles besides 1.2 Myr, 400 kyr, and 173 kyr AM cycles (Supplementary Fig. 7). Noteworthily, 40-kyr cycle of the Sr/Ca ratio is stronger than 100 kyr and 20 kyr cycles. Bandpass filtering, evolutionary spectrum analysis, and AM analysis are all performed using Acycle version 2.4.1¹⁰⁰.

CESM1.2.2 and climate simulation

The CESM1.2.2 contains multiple modules, simulating the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, land, river routing, ocean, ocean waves, sea ice, and glaciers, and the modules exchange data through a coupler¹⁰¹. This model, which participated in the CMIP5, has demonstrated a reliable capability for simulating global climate¹⁰². The horizontal resolutions are F19 (1.9°×2.5°; latitude by longitude) for the atmosphere (Community Atmosphere Model version 4; CAM4) and land (Community Land Model version 4; CLM4), and gx1v6 (approximately 1°×1°; latitude by longitude) for the ocean (Parallel Ocean Program version 2; POP2) and sea ice (Community Ice Code version 4; CICE4). The atmosphere and ocean contained 26 and 60 vertical levels, respectively. To explore the influence of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice on precipitation, two experiments were carried using the CAM4, coupled with the CLM4, within the framework of the CESM 1.2.2. One experiment is the control run (PIcntl) for Pre-industrial (PI) with the default (present day) Northern Hemisphere ice sheet, sea ice and SST. The other experiment (PI_lgmseaice) extended Arctic sea ice to the state of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). To explore the influence of the obliquity AM cycle on precipitation, another two experiments were carried out for the PI: PI_Omax1 and PI_Omax2, using the fully coupled CESM 1.2.2 model. For PI_Omax1 and PI_Omax2, obliquity was set to 24.538° (the same as at 2474 ka) and 23.620° (the same as at 3081 ka), respectively. The 24.538° and 23.620° are the obliquities when the change amplitude of obliquity is the largest and smallest, respectively, in a 1.2 Myr AM cycle (Supplementary Fig. 23). Each simulation was integrated for 800 years, with the last 100 years of data used for analysis to ensure robust results. All models were run on ‘Songshan’ supercomputer at the National Supercomputing Center in Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou University.

TraCE-21ka model data

Model data from TraCE-21ka experiments⁵¹, downloaded from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d651050/, include one full forcing simulation (TraCE-FULL, with transient forcing changes in orbitally driven insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and meltwater fluxes) from 22 ka BP to 1990 CE and four single-forcing simulations (TraCE-ORB, TraCE-GHG, TraCE-ICE, TraCE-MWF)¹⁰³. For the TraCE-21ka experiments, all simulations were performed using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The atmospheric model is the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3 with T31 ( ~ 3.75° × ~3.75°) horizon resolution and 26 hybrid coordinate levels. The land model is the Community Land Model (CLM) 3.0 with the coupled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). The ocean model is the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) 1.4.3 with 25 levels in the vertical direction. The sea ice model is the Community Sea Ice Model (CSIM5) that includes a subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution.

Processing and analysis of the simulation and reanalysis data

The processing and analysis of the simulation and reanalysis data in this study were performed using the NCL 6.4.0 (NCAR Command Language version 6.4.0), the NCO 4.9.3 (NetCDF Operators version 4.9.3), and the CDO 1.9.3 (Climate Data Operators version 1.9.3).

Precipitation variability estimation

Precipitation records were first linearly interpolated according to median of the sampling rates, precipitation variability is then estimated as the moving (7-point) standard deviation of precipitation records. All calculations were conducted on the Microsoft Excel 2016. It is noteworthy that, unlike some earlier studies that defined precipitation variability as the periodicity of climatic parameters¹⁰⁴, this study emphasizes the magnitude of dry-wet variations.

Estimation of westerly jet waviness

When the waviness of the westerly jet increases, it is often accompanied by an amplification of Rossby wave activity, leading to a broader meridional expansion of the jet (e.g., due to divergence over ridge regions) or a narrowing contraction (e.g., due to convergence over trough regions) (Figs. 1d, 4a). As a result, the standard deviation of the jet width may exhibit a statistically positive correlation with the degree of waviness. In this study, the standard deviation of the meridional width variation of the 200 hPa jet stream (>20 m/s) along the zonal direction (east–west) is used as a metric to quantify the waviness of the jet stream.

Production of the figures

The software used to create the figures in the paper includes Grapher 24, CorelDRAW 2024, ArcMap 10.2 powered by Esri, and NCL 6.4.0.

Reporting summary

Further information on research design is available in the Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article.

Data availability

The proxy data generated in this study have been deposited in the Figshare database (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30364408)¹⁰⁵. The CMIP6 data is available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/projections-cmip6?tab=overview/. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset is available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview/. The TraCE-21ka dataset is available at https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d651050/.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0801103, H.L.), the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (Y201959, H.L.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42302211, L.C.; 42371012, J.Z.), and the Science and Technology Planning Project of NIGLAS (NIGLAS2022GS01, H.L.). We would like to thank Na Yang, Yunyun Qing, and Xi Luo from the Nanjing Normal University, and Yun Cai from the Tongji University for assistance in experiments, Yang Xu from the Institute of Earth Environment (CAS) for helpful discussions.

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These authors contributed equally: Liangqing Cheng, Jingran Zhang.

Authors and Affiliations

Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
Liangqing Cheng & Hao Long
State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China
Jingran Zhang & Zhigang Zhang
School of Geographic Science and Tourism, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang, China
Yubin Wu
National Supercomputing Center in Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
Yubin Wu
School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Jun Cheng
State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
Liang Yi
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
Hao Long

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Liangqing Cheng
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Contributions

H.L. and J.Z. designed the study. L.C. wrote the manuscript. H.L. undertook the field work and conducted element measurement. J.Z. did the luminescence dating and color measurements. J.Z. and Z.Z. conducted the grain-size analysis. Y.W., L.C., and J.C. performed the climate modelling. L.Y. conducted the Paleomagnetism measurement. L.C., J.Z., Y.W., J.C., L.Y., Z.Z., and H.L. contributed to the interpretation of the data and provided significant input to the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Hao Long.

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Cheng, L., Zhang, J., Wu, Y. et al. Westerly jet waviness modulates mid-latitude hydroclimate variability. Nat Commun 16, 10928 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65904-8

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Received: 04 August 2025
Accepted: 24 October 2025
Published: 23 November 2025
Version of record: 08 December 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65904-8