Fig. 7: Categorical likelihood of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission (EOT) in Togo’s prefectures if ivermectin mass drug administration were stopped in 2027, according to EPIONCHO-IBM projections.

Details of the calculation of the prefecture-wide (joint) EOT probabilities are given in Supplementary Text 8. Categories are defined as: Very likely ( ≥ 90%); Likely (50–89%); Possibly (5–49%); Unlikely (0.01- < 5%), and Very unlikely ( < 0.01%). The pie-charts indicate the proportion of the total number of villages surveyed in each prefecture that are projected to reach <5%, 5–19%, 20–59%, 60–89% or ≥90% EOT probability, with the size of the pie-charts reflecting the number of villages (exact numbers are given in Supplementary Table 33; detailed information on those villages with projected EOT probability <90% is presented in Supplementary Tables 18–29). Black borders indicate regions (see Fig. 1); white borders correspond to prefectures. The map for Togo (with regions and prefectures) was drawn by the authors in R using the geodata package (version 0.6-2; CC BY 4.0, https://github.com/rspatial/geodata). Source data and code are available⁴⁷.