Abstract
Renewable energy is critical for addressing global climate change, and accurate assessments of its potential are key for decision making and planning. This study provides a detailed, farm-level evaluation of offshore wind power potential in China, incorporating realistic turbine layouts derived from remote sensing data, wake loss modeling, and future climate scenarios. Our findings show that accounting for the farm-level details results in a China’s offshore wind potential of 2.5–4.2 PWh yr−1 which is significantly lower than previous estimates, which often exceeded 5.6 PWh yr−1. Through modeling the wake loss effects within wind farms, the study reveals that wake losses are higher than previously assumed in earlier research. Additionally, the study highlights substantial economic and technical disparities between nearshore bottom-fixed and deep-water floating wind farms, with the latter offering higher potential density but at greater costs. Our results provide a more realistic foundation for setting energy targets, optimizing regional strategies, and promoting floating wind technologies to harness deep-water resources, thereby supporting China’s transition to a sustainable energy future.
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The main data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and Supporting Information; other data can be requested from the author upon request. Furthermore, datasets are openly accessible via the online repository at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29625785. Source data is available as a Source Data file. Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
The full set of code employed for data processing, quantitative analysis, and figure generation in this study is publicly available in the online repository at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29625785. The repository also includes example datasets and comprehensive documentation detailing the structure and usage of the code.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72571005, 72334001) (C.Z., G.L.), the National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFF0613900) (C.Z.), China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Thematic Research (QBZ202409) (L.L.S., C.Z.), and High-performance Computing Platform of Peking University (C.Z.).
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Conceptualization, S.X. and C.Z.; investigation, S.X. and C.Z.; formal analysis, S.X. and C.Z.; supervision, S.X., G.Y., P.H., Y.Q., and C.Z.; writing—original draft, S.X. and C.Z.; writing—review and editing, S.X., G.Y., Y.H., D.D., Y.Q., Y.L., G.L., L.L.S., and C.Z.
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Xu, S., Yin, G., Hu, P. et al. Substantially lower estimates in China’s offshore wind potential using farm-scale spatial modeling and wake effects. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68655-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68655-2
