Abstract
Carbon sequestration in shale gas operations represents a crucial pathway to achieve Geological Negative Emissions, which is essential for global 1.5 °C targets. However, the emissions reduction potential and economic viability of this approach in China’s shale gas value chain remain unclear. This study quantifies the potential for transforming China’s shale gas value chain from an emission source to a carbon sink, while revealing spatial heterogeneity in economic feasibility. Results demonstrate that synergistic deployment of CO2-based technologies can achieve Geological Negative Emissions across the value chain, with national carbon sink potential reaching 66 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalents and shale gas production increasing by 4,518 billion cubic meters. Multi-scenario economic assessments reveal that marine shale in the Sichuan Basin exhibits inherent profitability, whereas continental reservoirs require carbon credit integration or optimized production. Current Chinese carbon market prices provide insufficient incentives, implementing region-specific subsidies and enhancing carbon pricing frameworks could unlock this potential, thereby contributing to national carbon neutrality goals and multiple Sustainable Development Goals.
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The authors declare that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and its supplementary information files. Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available at https://github.com/SEU-lingfeng/Cumulative-climate-impact. Source data for Figs. 2–5 and Supplementary Figs. are provided as a Source Data file. Source data are provided in this paper.
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Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant Nos. 52325005, 72293602, and 52388101 to S.L.), the General Research Fund (grant No. 12616222 to M.G.) and Early Career Scheme (grant No. 22611624 to M.G.) of Hong Kong Research Grants Council, and the Guangdong Natural Science Fund (grant No. 2025A1515010017 to M.G.).
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M.G. and P.H. conceived the project. P.H. conducted data retrieval and performed subsequent evaluation calculations. M.G. and W.S. supervised part of the model construction. M.G., S.L., and X.L. jointly guided the writing framework. Y.L. advised on the visualization design. P.H., M.G., and S.L. co-wrote and revised the manuscript.
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Hong, P., Guo, M., Liang, S. et al. Carbon sequestration for geological negative emissions of the shale gas value chain in China. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68829-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68829-y
