Abstract
Excessive crop nitrogen (N) fertilization has negative environmental and social consequences. Using maize grain yield response to nitrogen field trials, we consider the uncertainty surrounding N rate recommendations to demonstrate that fertilizer N rates can be reduced by 12─16% in the US Corn Belt, with negligible risk of maize yield losses. This reduction in N fertilizer applications decrease N2O–N emissions by 10% and N leaching by 13%, leading to a social benefit of 230─$530 M, due to enhanced air and water quality. Additional N reductions could benefit ecosystems and human health. However, the high risk of yield loss associated with additional N reductions makes this practice unacceptable for farmers. This emphasizes the need for incentive programs that consider the responsibilities and limitations of all actors along the food supply chain.
Data availability
All data used in this study are publicly available. The dataset of maize grain yield response to N used in this study are available in the ref. 92 database under accession code https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.66t1g1k2g. The dataset of maize grain and fertilizer prices to define probability distribution of the price ratio used in this study are available in the USDA-Economic Research Survey under the accession codes https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/fertilizer-use-and-price/documentation-and-data-sources and https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts. The literature review process about N-N2O emissions and \(N-N{O}_{3}^{-}\) leaching in the US Corn Belt data generated in this study are provided in the Supplementary Information file (Table S3). The data to build the plots presented in Fig. 3A and Figs. S1, S7–S9 can be reproduced from raw data and code that have already been shared in public repositories. The dataset for the area cultivated with maize presented in Fig. 1C can be obtained under the accession code https://croplandcros.scinet.usda.gov/. The plots shown in Figs. 1A, B and 5 are illustrations, no data was used to build those figures. Source data are provided with this paper in ref. 93 under accession code [https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30524483]. Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
The codes to fit the Bayesian quadratic and quadratic plateau models in this paper are available with open access at ref. 86 with accession code [https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17868489].
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The authors thank Curtis Ransom for providing feedback on an early version of this manuscript. Science is a continuous process built by a community that shares knowledge. Therefore, the authors thank the efforts of those scientists who make their data freely available, contributing to faster scientific knowledge development.
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F.P. and I.A.C. conceived the study. F.P., I.A.C., E.A.D., P.V.V.P., J.R.S., and T.J.H. conceptualized the manuscript. F.P. analyzed the data and wrote the initial draft of the manuscript. F.P., E.A.D., K.G., A.J.E., H.E.B., P.V.V.P., T.J.H., J.R.S., and I.A.C. reviewed and edited the paper. E.A.D., K.G., A.J.E., and H.E.B. contributed disciplinary expertise to broaden the scope and interpretation of the results. F.P., E.A.D., K.G., A.J.E., H.E.B., P.V.V.P., T.J.H., J.R.S., and I.A.C. contributed to and approved the final version.
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Palmero, F., Davidson, E.A., Guan, K. et al. Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68988-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68988-y
