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Unifying non-Markovian dynamics and agent heterogeneity in scalable stochastic networks
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  • Published: 02 March 2026

Unifying non-Markovian dynamics and agent heterogeneity in scalable stochastic networks

  • Aurélien Pélissier  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-6638-58291,2,3,
  • Miroslav Phan  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-29881,2,
  • Didier Le Bail4,
  • Niko Beerenwinkel  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0573-61192 &
  • …
  • María Rodríguez Martínez  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3766-42331,5 

Nature Communications , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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Subjects

  • Adaptive immunity
  • Communication
  • Computational models
  • Computational science
  • Emergence

Abstract

Stochastic processes underpin dynamics across biology, physics, epidemiology, and finance, yet accurately simulating them remains a major challenge. Classical approaches such as the Gillespie algorithm are exact for Markovian, time-independent systems, where propensities depend only on the current state and agents of a given type are statistically identical. While efficient, this framework misses a defining feature of many real systems: heterogeneity and memory at the level of individual agents. Cells may divide or differentiate on distinct intrinsic timescales, individuals may preferentially interact with specific partners, and inter-event-time distributions can deviate strongly from the exponential. We introduce MOSAIC (Modeling of Stochastic Agents with Individual Complexity), a general and scalable framework that embeds agent-specific properties directly into the dynamics. MOSAIC unifies heterogeneous rates, dynamic interaction preferences, and both Markovian and non-Markovian waiting-time distributions within a single stochastic formalism, while retaining Gillespie-like computational cost. Applications to delayed biochemical reactions, competitive immune-cell dynamics, and temporal social networks show that MOSAIC reproduces empirical features that existing methods either miss or capture only at prohibitive computational cost, establishing it as a practical tool for simulating heterogeneous stochastic systems.

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Data availability

This study used previously published datasets on germinal center B-cell maturation39 and conference interactions58. These data are available from the original publications and their associated repositories. All simulation data required to reproduce the findings are generated from the model definitions and parameters reported in the Methods.

Code availability

The MOSAIC and DelaySSA Python implementations, together with the code and data needed to reproduce all figures, have been deposited on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18346965.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Jonathan Karr, Farshid Jafarpour, Srividya Iyer-Biswas, and Peter Ashcroft for their valuable suggestions. This research was supported by the COSMIC European Training Network, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 765158 and from the Swiss National Science Foundation (Sinergia grant CRSII5 193832).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. IBM Research Europe, Rüschlikon, Switzerland

    Aurélien Pélissier, Miroslav Phan & María Rodríguez Martínez

  2. Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland

    Aurélien Pélissier, Miroslav Phan & Niko Beerenwinkel

  3. Institute of Computational Life Sciences, Zürich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), Wädenswil, Switzerland

    Aurélien Pélissier

  4. Centre de Physique Théorique (CPT), Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, Marseille, France

    Didier Le Bail

  5. Department of Biomedical Informatics & Data Science, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA

    María Rodríguez Martínez

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Contributions

A.P. designed and implemented the MOSAIC and MOSAIC-TN frameworks, performed all simulations and benchmarks, and wrote the manuscript. N.B. and M.R.M. supervised the project and contributed to writing and editing the manuscript; M.R.M. additionally contributed to the design of MOSAIC. M.P. contributed to the implementation of MOSAIC and assisted with simulations. D.B. advised on dataset selection and the activity-driven modeling framework for social interactions and clarified terminology.

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Correspondence to María Rodríguez Martínez.

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Pélissier, A., Phan, M., Le Bail, D. et al. Unifying non-Markovian dynamics and agent heterogeneity in scalable stochastic networks. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69817-y

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  • Received: 17 September 2025

  • Accepted: 09 February 2026

  • Published: 02 March 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69817-y

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