Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.
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The data used in this study are available online in the Figshare database (https://figshare.com/s/501e92df94a15ae4ebfe).
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The analysis code that supports the findings of this study is available on Figshare (https://figshare.com/s/501e92df94a15ae4ebfe).
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Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32471685, 42361144886) and Shaanxi Province Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholar (2024JC-JCQN-32).
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S.S. conceived the study together with Ji Chen. S. S. collected data from peer-reviewed articles. A.H.K., B.S., B.J.C., Chang Liao, D.G., E.H., F.Z., F.T.M., F.B., F.W., G.V.G., G.L., G.H., G.A.S., G.H.-R., G.N., G.S., I.L., J.B., J.W., K.K., K.G., L.D., L.G., M.D.-B., M.D., M.L., M.K., O.K., P.R., P.D., P.Z., R.A.V. R., R.V., R.C., R.L., S.V., S.X., S.N., S.C., T.Y., T.G., W.L., W.S., W.W., W.B., Xiangrong Cheng, X.L., X.S., Xiaoli Cheng, X.W., X.L., X.Z., Y.K., Yangquanwei Zhong, Y.C., Y.Y., Yuyi Li, Z.C., Zhanfeng Liu, and Zhongkui Luo provided their unpublished data. S.S. conducted the analyses and performed visualization, with contributions from F.T., H.X., and Yiqi Luo. S.S., Ji Chen, M.F.C., R.A.V.R., and K.J.v.G. wrote the manuscript. A.G.H., A.M., A.H.K., W.A., A.K., A.S., B.S., B. J.C., C.P., C.T., Chang Liang, Chang Liao, C.J., D.G., E.L., E.H., F.D., F.Z., F.T., F.T.M., F.B., F.W., G.V.G., G.L., G.H., G.A.S., G.H.-R., G.N., G.P., G.S., H.Z., H.A., H.X., I.L., I.K., J.B., J.Å.K., J.L., J.Z., J W., J.A., Junji Cao, J.E.O., K.K., K.G., K.V.O., K.A.F., L.D., L.G.B., L.G., L.M., M.D.-B., M.D., M.R., M.L., O.K., O.H., P.G.-P., P.H., P.R., P.D., P.Z., P.M.H., R.G., R.Ž., R.B., R.V., R.C., R.L., S.V., S.X., S.N., S.C., T.Y., S.J.H., T.K., T.G., V.E.M., V.M.S., W.L., W.S., W.Z., W.W., W.B., Xiangrong Cheng, X.L., X.S., Xiaoli Cheng, X.W., X.L., X.Z., Y.K., Yangquanwei Zhong, Y.C., Y.Y., Yiqi Luo, Yixuan Zhang, Y.Q., Y.F., Yuting Liang, Yuyi Li, Z.C., Zhanfeng Liu, Z.S., Zhongkui Luo, and Z.A. edited the manuscript. M.F.C., R.A.V.R., C.W.M., M.K., K.J.v.G., Z.A., and Ji Chen edited the manuscript and contributed to the discussion on the effects of climate change on particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Sun, S., Cotrufo, M.F., Viscarra Rossel, R.A. et al. Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2
