Abstract
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging public health concern with increasing incidence and geographic spread. Quantitative assessment of its cross-species transmission among humans, ticks, and animal hosts remains limited. Here, we develop and apply a multi-population, multi-route dynamic model using data from 3,883 reported cases in Anhui Province, China, from 2019 to 2023 to quantify transmissibility and characterize spatiotemporal patterns. We estimate an average annual incidence of 1.3 per 100,000 and a case fatality rate of 3.1%. Cases are concentrated from April to September, and the transmission season extends into early spring and late autumn. Farmers and older adults are the main high-risk groups, and transmission risk is highest in central and southern Anhui. Model-based estimates indicate increasing transmissibility, with the basic reproduction number exceeding 1 from 2022 and reaching 1.5 in 2023; the highest prefecture-level estimate is 3.3 in Chuzhou. These findings show sustained expansion of SFTS transmission in a high-endemic region and support earlier, geographically targeted interventions for cross-species transmission control.
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Acknowledgements
We extend our special thanks to Professor Guoqing Hu (Central South University) for his insightful guidance and suggestions. We thank Dr. Xiaohao Guo and Dr. Jiahui Li (Xiamen University) for their contributions to model improvement. Special thanks are due to Bin Deng from the Guizhou Provincial CDC for his invaluable contributions to the model and parameters. Finally, we acknowledge the dedicated efforts and data contributions of all study authors and staff at the various CDCs. This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2024YFC2311404, TMC); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82404329, JR); the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China under Grant GZC20240890; the NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology (National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention) (NHCKFKT2024-3, JR); Furong Laboratory Scientific Research Project (2023SK2090, TMC).
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Wang, B., Chu, N., Wei, H. et al. Escalating transmissibility of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in a high-endemic region of China. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72352-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72352-5
