Abstract
Global change is associated with variable shifts in the annual production of aboveground plant biomass, suggesting localized sensitivities with unclear causal origins. Combining remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index data since the 1980s with contemporary field data from 84 grasslands on 6 continents, we show a widening divergence in site-level biomass ranging from +51% to −34% globally. Biomass generally increased in warmer, wetter and species-rich sites with longer growing seasons and declined in species-poor arid areas. Phenological changes were widespread, revealing substantive transitions in grassland seasonal cycling. Grazing, nitrogen deposition and plant invasion were prevalent in some regions but did not predict overall trends. Grasslands are undergoing sizable changes in production, with implications for food security, biodiversity and carbon storage especially in arid regions where declines are accelerating.
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Data availability
Data that support the findings of this study are freely available via the Environmental Data Initiative (EDI) Data Portal (https://portal.edirepository.org/nis/advancedSearch.jsp).
Code availability
Code that supports the findings of this study is freely available via the Environmental Data Initiative (EDI) Data Portal (https://portal.edirepository.org/nis/advancedSearch.jsp).
Change history
19 August 2024
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02538-x
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Acknowledgements
We thank each of the researchers who have contributed data and ideas to the NutNet (http://www.nutnet.org). Grants to A.S.M., E.E., C.B. and O.C. came from the University of Guelph’s Canada First Research Excellence Fund project ‘Food from Thought’. Thank you to S. Rodrigues for technical support on data extraction from Google Earth and A. Bjorkman for comments on the paper. Fieldwork was funded at the site scale by individual researchers. Coordination and data management in the NutNet have been supported by funding to E.T.B. and E.W.S. from the National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network (NSF-DEB-1042132) and Long-Term Ecological Research (NSF-DEB-1234162 to Cedar Creek LTER) programmes, and the Institute on the Environment (DG-0001-13). We also thank the Minnesota Supercomputer Institute for hosting project data and the Institute on the Environment for hosting network meetings. This study was funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund—University of Guelph (‘Food From Thought’), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (A.S.M.), National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network (NSF-DEB-1042132) and Long Term Ecological Research (NSF-DEB-1234162 to Cedar Creek LTER).
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Conceptualization: A.S.M., E.E. with M.S., C.B., K.L. and J.O. Methodology: E.E. with A.S.M., O.C., C.B., Q.C., E.W.S., T.O. and E.T.B. Investigation: E.E. and A.S.M. Visualization: A.S.M. and E.E. Analyses: A.S.M., with O.C., C.B., E.E., T.O., E.W.S. and Q.C. Funding acquisition: A.S.M., with E.T.B. and E.W.S. Project administration: A.S.M. Supervision: A.S.M. Writing—original draft: A.S.M. with E.E. Writing—review and editing: A.S.M., E.E. and all co-authors. Data collection and contribution: all co-authors.
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MacDougall, A.S., Esch, E., Chen, Q. et al. Widening global variability in grassland biomass since the 1980s. Nat Ecol Evol 8, 1877–1888 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02500-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02500-x
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