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Storm-induced mass mortality results in both immediate and long-term consequences for a migratory songbird

Nature Ecology & Evolution (2026)Cite this article

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Abstract

Extreme weather events are occurring more often, resulting in increasingly frequent mass mortality events for plants and animals. Identifying why individuals die during these events and their long-term consequences for populations can enable a mechanistic understanding of species’ vulnerability to global change. Here we report on early-arriving purple martins (Progne subis)—a migratory songbird—that were killed at >50% of their breeding sites across two US states during a severe winter storm event in 2021. Victims exhibited substantial allelic differences from individuals sampled before and after the storm event. The surviving population suffered delayed breeding, reproductive failure and, in 2022, late breeding-ground arrival. Phenological trait values returned to the mean by 2024, yet the population may be unlikely to recover demographically until at least 2027. Purple martins are markedly declining in the region and signatures of past events suggest that frequent mass mortality events may be challenging their resiliency.

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Fig. 1: Weather anomalies and purple martin occurrences across the South Central USA in February 2021.
Fig. 2: Purple martin arrival and first egg dates across time.
Fig. 3: Genomic signatures of winter-storm selection.
Fig. 4: Demographic consequences of winter storms.

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Data availability

Raw genomic sequences are deposited on NCBI (no. PRJNA1241750). Arrival and nest data are citizen science databases managed by the PMCA. Arrivals can be obtained through the data portal access (https://www.purplemartin.org/research/8/scout-arrival-study/). Access to nest data can be obtained by submitting a request to the PMCA and agreeing to data use policies. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

Scripts for all analyses are available via GitHub at https://github.com/Mstager/Purple_Martin_scripts.git.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the PMCA landlords; the citizen scientists that contributed to the data collection; S. Cardiff, N. Mason and the LSU Museum of Natural Sciences; M. Harvey and P. Lavretsky at the UT El Paso Biodiversity Collection; UMass students J. Applegate and S. Thakur; A. Gerson for use of the QMR; J. Casey for hospitality; E. de Greef for sharing the purple martin genome annotation; and UMass BaMPhEE, W. Tong, W. Burnside and the Stager and Senner lab groups for comments on a previous version of this manuscript. This work was funded by grants from the PMCA (to A.M.F. and M.S.), as well as funding from the University of Central Florida (to A.M.F.) and the University of Massachusetts Amherst (to M.S.).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA

    Maria Stager, Phred M. Benham & Kay Denmead

  2. Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA

    Nathan R. Senner

  3. Massachusetts Audubon Society, Lincoln, MA, USA

    Nathan R. Senner

  4. Genomics and Bioinformatics Cluster, Department of Biology, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA

    Robert R. Fitak & Anna M. Forsman

  5. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Interdisciplinary Program, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

    R. Keith Andringa & Jacquelyn K. Grace

  6. Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

    Jacquelyn K. Grace

  7. Museum of Natural Science, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

    Donna L. Dittmann

  8. Purple Martin Conservation Association, Erie, PA, USA

    Joe Siegrist

  9. Department of Biology, Colby College, Waterville, ME, USA

    Anna M. Forsman

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Contributions

M.S. and A.M.F. designed the study. J.S. and R.K.A. helped to coordinate collection of the carcasses by the museum. D.L.D. received carcasses at the museum and prepared them as specimens. A.M.F., J.S. and R.K.A. conducted field sampling. J.K.G. provided permits for field sampling. K.D. performed morphological and body composition assays. A.M.F. and M.S. performed laboratory work. P.M.B. and R.R.F. conducted genomic analyses. M.S. and N.R.S. designed and executed all other analyses and drafted the manuscript. All authors contributed feedback on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Maria Stager.

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Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks Eric Ameca, Shane Campbell-Staton and Virginie Rolland for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Body composition of purple martin carcasses.

a) Lean and (b) fat masses (as a proportion of total body mass) for n = 281 carcasses. Dashed line indicates mean value.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Early arrival dates for 10 U.S. South Central states.

Gray dots represent individual reports. Larger black circles indicate the mean arrival date for the year with + indicating the first and third quartiles. Vertical line denotes the mean arrival date for the period of 1998-2021 with light gray shading to indicate 2 standard deviations from the mean. Red shaded horizontal bar highlights 2022, the year following the storm event. Black arrows indicate years in which mean arrival date \(\ge\)2 standard deviations from the long-term mean. Sample sizes are as follows: nTexas = 9589, nLouisiana = 3190, nMississippi = 1337, nAlabama = 2314, nGeorgia = 1773, nFlorida = 3569, nArkansas = 1544, and nOklahoma = 1946.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Nest success across the Louisiana breeding season.

Relationship between nest success (that is, whether or not a nest had at least one young fledge) and first egg date from n = 1095 nests (open circles) in Louisiana from 1998-2024. Line represents the results of a logistic regression (\(\beta\) = −0.03 \(\pm \,\)0.005, P < 0.01) with gray shading to indicate 95% confidence interval.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Louisiana arrival and temperature trends.

Long-term trends in first arrival dates (blue dots; n = 3190 arrivals) and June temperatures (black dots; n = 27 years) in Louisiana from 1998-2024. Blue line represents a linear mixed-effect regression (\(\beta\) = 0.15 \(\pm \,\)0.07, p = 0.03) with shaded gray indicating 95% confidence interval; only sites with >10 years of data were included, and site was incorporated as a random effect. Red line represents the long-term trend in mean June temperatures in Louisiana (1998-2024) resulting from a linear regression (\(\beta\) = 0.04 \(\pm \,\)0.01, P = 0.01); dotted lines indicate 95% confidence interval.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Principal components analysis on genetic variation across the genome using 922,941 SNPs.

Each point represents one of 61 individuals color-coded by sampling site. Symbols indicate sample cohort: individuals that died during the storm (x) or individuals sampled in May 2021 after the storm (dots).

Extended Data Fig. 6 Providing perspective on latitudinal correlations through random subsampling of SNP dataset.

Histogram depicting the number of SNPs that significantly changed with latitude in each of 100, randomly subsampled groups composed of 2,624 non-Fst-outlier SNPs. Blue dotted line indicates the number of Fst outlier SNPs whose allele frequency corresponded with latitude.

Extended Data Table 1 Arrival and nest statistics for 10 South Central U.S. states
Full size table
Extended Data Table 2 The 90 protein-coding genes included among Fst outlier windows
Full size table
Extended Data Table 3 Changes in nest cavity occupancy from 2020 to 2021
Full size table

Supplementary information

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1 (download XLSX )

(Sheet 1) Localities for 30 sampling sites of purple martin carcasses. Latitudes and longitudes have been rounded to the nearest 100th to maintain privacy of homeowners. (Sheet 2) Origin and morphological data for individuals sampled in May 2021. Latitudes and longitudes have been rounded to the nearest 100th to maintain homeowner privacy. Sex (male (M) or female (F)) and age (subadult (SY) or adult (ASY)) were determined by plumage.

Source Data Fig. 3 (download XLSX )

Individual information for 66 samples for which whole-genome sequencing was performed. Collection date and collection locale with corresponding latitudes and longitudes (rounded to the nearest 100th to maintain homeowner privacy) are listed. Cohort (survivor or victim), age (ASY (after second year), adult; SY (second year), subadult) and sex (M, male; F, female) are indicated. BioSample accession no. corresponds to raw sequence archived on the NCBI’s Sequence Read Archive.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 1 (download XLSX )

Individual data for 292 carcasses, including LSU MNS tissue number, collection date, location, latitude and longitude; sex (determined by plumage); morphological measurements; and body composition (fat and lean masses).

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Stager, M., Benham, P.M., Senner, N.R. et al. Storm-induced mass mortality results in both immediate and long-term consequences for a migratory songbird. Nat Ecol Evol (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03005-5

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