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Human shielding from wolves facilitates jackal expansion across Europe

Nature Ecology & Evolution (2026) Cite this article

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Abstract

Among the many pathways through which human activity can shape biodiversity patterns, modification of biotic interactions tends to be overlooked. Here we show how interacting anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors drive the continental-scale expansion of a highly adaptive mesocarnivore, the golden jackal. Using a dataset of playback surveys conducted across Europe, we find that the presence of an apex predator, the grey wolf, is the primary factor limiting jackal occurrence. However, a human presence acts as a shield that considerably reduces the strength of wolf suppression and provides jackals refuge near people. Our fitted distribution model predicts that jackals have the potential to expand until they occupy 75% of the continent, almost six times larger than their current range. The ongoing recovery of wolves in Europe could reduce suitable areas for expanding jackals by up to 18% in the near future, but a persistent human-shield effect, coupled with climate warming and landscape modification, is expected to sustain continued jackal expansion across the continent. Our results illustrate how cascading anthropogenic impacts can hamper the ecological benefits provided by apex predator recovery.

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Fig. 1: Golden jackals are rapidly expanding into Europe.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 2: Ecological drivers of golden jackal presence.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 3: Large unoccupied areas of Europe are suitable for golden jackals.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 4: Changes in the wolf distribution and the shielding effect of humans have major influences on the area predicted to be suitable for expanding golden jackals in continental Europe.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Data availability

The data100 required to reproduce the statistical analyses of the study are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18771950 (ref. 100).

Code availability

The R code necessary to fit the model, extract variable importance and generate fitted response curves is available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18771950 (ref. 100).

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Acknowledgements

We are very grateful to all the people involved in the jackal surveys, especially M. Berce, S. Lamut, M. Sanchez and students of the University of Ljubljana, Kaposvár University, Szent István University, the Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences and volunteers of nongovernmental organization Dinaricum. We express our sincere gratitude to A. Gipe-Lazarou for his valuable assistance in figure design. Finally, we thank L. Boitani, N. Bonnot, M. Hewison, J. Linnell and N. Morellet for their insightful comments on previous versions of this manuscript. N.R. was supported by a Harvard University Graduate Fellowship and a Fondazione Edmund Mach International Doctoral Programme Fellowship for part of this project. M.K. was supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (grant numbers P4-0059, J1-50013). L.M. was supported by the NextGenerationEU in the framework of the National Biodiversity Future Center. F.C. contributed to this work partly under the Institut de recherche pour le développement Fellowship at Fondation IMéRA, Institute for Advanced Studies at Aix-Marseille Université. J.H. was a recipient of the Doctoral Fellowship of the Austrian Academy of Sciences at the Institute of Wildlife Biology and Game management. I.A.-P. received funding support from the National Museum of Natural History at Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and the Program ‘Young Scientist’ of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences for data collection in Bulgaria. D.C. and A. Penezić received funding support from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, grant number 451-03-68/2022-14/ 200178. J.L. was supported by the RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014 (National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change). M.Š. was supported by the Czech Academy of Sciences in frame of the programme Strategy AV21 (Strategie AV21 Krize biodiversity) and the research aim of the Czech Academy of Sciences (grant number 68081766). P.U. was supported by the Cultural and Educational Grant Agency of the Ministry of Education, Research, Development and Youth of the Slovak Republic (grant numbers 036UMB-4/2018 and 003UMB-4/2023).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CEFS, INRAE, Université de Toulouse, Castanet-Tolosan, France

    Nathan Ranc

  2. Center for Integrated Spatial Research, Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA

    Nathan Ranc & Christopher C. Wilmers

  3. Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Department, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Nathan Ranc

  4. Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Italy

    Nathan Ranc & Francesca Cagnacci

  5. IUCN/SSC Canid Specialist Group, Oxford, UK

    Nathan Ranc & Miha Krofel

  6. Dipartimento di Biologia e Biotecnologie ‘Charles Darwin’, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy

    Luigi Maiorano

  7. School of Mathematics and Statistics and Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    David I. Warton

  8. CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal

    Francisco Álvares

  9. BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal

    Francisco Álvares

  10. National Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC), Palermo, Italy

    Francesca Cagnacci

  11. Department of Ecosystem Management, Climate and Biodiversity, Institute of Wildlife Biology and Game Management, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria

    Jennifer Hatlauf

  12. National Museum of Natural History, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Ilya Acosta-Pankov

  13. Ecology Department of Crispus, NGO Sibiu, Sibiu, Romania

    Ovidiu Banea

  14. Slovenia Forest Service, Ljubljana, Slovenia

    Tomaž Berce

  15. Biology Centre CAS, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic

    Jaroslav Červinka

  16. Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

    Duško Ćirović & Aleksandra Penezić

  17. Department of Evolutionary Biology, Institute for Biological Research ‘Siniša Stanković’–National Institute of Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

    Nada Ćosić

  18. Association Transylvanian Wildlife Project, Targu Secuiesc, Romania

    László Gál & Alexandra Sallay-Mosoi

  19. Department of Zoology–Marine Biology, School of Biology, University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Giorgos Giannatos

  20. Department of Applied Zoology and Wildlife Management, Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia

    Nuno F. Guimarães

  21. CEVEV Mala Líška, Staré Hory, Slovakia

    Nuno F. Guimarães

  22. OZ Diana, Banská Bystrica, Slovakia

    Nuno F. Guimarães

  23. Department of Wildlife Biology and Management, Institute for Wildlife Management and Nature Conservation, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Gödöllő, Hungary

    Miklós Heltai & László Szabó

  24. Geonatura Ltd, Zagreb, Croatia

    Gjorge Ivanov

  25. HUN-REN Balaton Limnological Research Institute, Tihany, Hungary

    József Lanszki

  26. Institute of Animal Science, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Kaposvár, Hungary

    József Lanszki

  27. Zoological Section of the Friulian Natural History Museum, Udine, Italy

    Luca Lapini

  28. Estonian Environment Agency, Tartu, Estonia

    Peep Männil

  29. Macedonian Ecological Society, Skopje, North Macedonia

    Dime Melovski & Aleksandar Stojanov

  30. Department of Zoology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

    Despina Migli

  31. Therion Research Group, Gorizia, Italy

    Marco Pavanello

  32. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    Anelia Petrova

  33. Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic

    Martin Šálek

  34. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic

    Martin Šálek

  35. Association Biom, Zagreb, Croatia

    Ivana Selanec

  36. Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, Department of Interdisciplinary Life Sciences, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria

    Aldin Selimovic

  37. Servizio Foreste, Provincia Autonoma di Trento, Trento, Italy

    Tobia Sforna

  38. Ljubljansko barje Nature Park, Notranje Gorice, Slovenia

    Jasna Tarman

  39. Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Banja Luka, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Igor Trbojević

  40. Faculty of Ecology, Independent University of Banja Luka, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Igor Trbojević

  41. Ecology and Research Association, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Tijana Trbojević

  42. Faculty of Natural Sciences, Matej Bel University, Banská Bystrica, Slovakia

    Peter Urban

  43. University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Ljubljana, Slovenia

    Miha Krofel

Authors
  1. Nathan Ranc
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  2. Christopher C. Wilmers
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  3. Luigi Maiorano
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  38. Miha Krofel
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Contributions

N.R. and M.K. conceived the manuscript. N.R. conducted the analyses with support from L.M. and D.W. N.R. and M.K. wrote the first manuscript draft with inputs from C.C.W., L.M., D.W., F.A., F.C. and J.H. Co-authors contributed data and assisted with writing the final version of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nathan Ranc.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks Rebecca M. Windell and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1

Predicted response of jackals to the distance from nearest water body (in km).

Extended Data Fig. 2 Uncertainty in model predictions within the calibration area.

Model outputs from 1,000 simulations are presented for the calibration area, showing the median predicted distribution (see Fig. 3 in the Main Text, a), the standard error of the mean prediction (b), and the lower (0.025) and upper (0.975) confidence bounds (c-d). The observed core distribution of golden jackals in Europe is indicated with black hatching19.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Uncertainty in continental model predictions.

Model outputs from 1,000 simulations show the median predicted distribution (see Fig. 3 in the Main Text, a), the standard error of the mean prediction (b), and the lower (0.025) and upper (0.975) confidence bounds (c-d).

Extended Data Table 1 Number of surveyed calling stations by country and wolf presence category
Full size table

Supplementary information

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Ranc, N., Wilmers, C.C., Maiorano, L. et al. Human shielding from wolves facilitates jackal expansion across Europe. Nat Ecol Evol (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03060-y

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