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Managing the geopolitics of Europe’s fossil-fuel exit

As Europe gradually phases out its fossil-fuel imports, some producer economies face rising risks. With careful management, the European Union can turn this shift into an opportunity to advance both climate leadership and geopolitical stability.

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Fig. 1: The net oil and gas imports of the European Union (EU) have peaked.
Fig. 2: Projected decline in per capita fossil-fuel revenue by 2050 if the European Union were to cease fossil-fuel imports.

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Acknowledgements

The author thanks I. Dellatolas for research assistance and B. Devlin for comments. All views are those of the author.

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Correspondence to Thijs Van de Graaf.

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Nature Energy thanks Simon Black, Poul Thøis Madsen, and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Fig. 1 (panel a and b)

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Van de Graaf, T. Managing the geopolitics of Europe’s fossil-fuel exit. Nat Energy (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01957-9

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