Fig. 3: Cancer risk over time.
From: Genomic copy number predicts esophageal cancer years before transformation
a, Per-endoscopy, mean aggregated risks plotted per patient (y axis) over time (x axis) in the months since the initial endoscopy (time 0). The lines between each time point are colored by the maximum (between the initial and final endoscopy) risk classification. The right plot shows patients who progressed, with most patient endoscopies consistently classified as ‘high’ risk. Similarly, in the left plot showing nonprogressor patients, there is a group consistently predicted as ‘low’ risk. The interesting patients are the nonprogressors who have consistently been ‘high’ risk. Follow-up continues on these patients and it is possible that they may ultimately progress to HGD/IMC. b, The progressive patients, using the highest risk (similar to the current guidelines using the highest pathology grade), show that CN can identify 50% of high-risk endoscopies in patients >8 years before HGD or cancer. Bars are the ratio of ‘high’-risk endoscopies to all endoscopies for that time period; error bars indicate mean ± s.e.m.
