Extended Data Fig. 3: Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals of the dynamic positive predictive value (PPV) for 20/2/20 and PANGEA-SMM BM high-risk status in each cohort.

The PPV at each time point (x-axis) is computed using only the most recent observation for each patient who is still being followed up that many years after diagnosis. It is the probability of progressing to MM within 2 years for high-risk patients. At some time points the PPV could not be computed because sample sizes (esp. the number of 20/2/20 or PANGEA-SMM high-risk cases) were too small. Results shown in panel “Validation Cohorts 1-5” are based on meta-analysis as described in the methods section. Overall sample sizes for each cohort are described in Table 1.