Abstract
This study evaluates water quality and human health risks at the Betwa–Yamuna confluence in Hamirpur District, India, using monthly data collected from June 2023 to May 2024. Physicochemical parameters (pH, EC, TDS, temperature) and trace metals (As, Pb, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Zn) were assessed against WHO and USEPA standards. Arsenic ranged from 0.001–0.011 mg/L and exceeded the WHO limit (0.01 mg/L) in several samples, while Pb (0.0004–0.012 mg/L) occasionally exceeded its guideline. EC exceeded 1200 µS/cm and TDS surpassed 500 mg/L during pre-monsoon months, indicating strong solute enrichment under low-flow conditions. Non-carcinogenic risk assessment showed median HQ values for arsenic of 0.98 for children and 0.42 for adults, with 95th percentiles reaching 2.28 and 0.97, respectively. Children’s HI values exceeded 1.0 in all seasons and surpassed 2.0 during pre-monsoon. Carcinogenic risk for arsenic exceeded the USEPA threshold (1 × 10⁻4) in 38% of adult and 9% of child Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic analysis (10,000 iterations) indicated HI > 1 in 67% of child runs and 23% of adult runs. The results demonstrate substantial health risks, particularly for children, and highlight the urgent need for arsenic and lead source control, seasonal water quality monitoring, and community-level drinking water treatment, with priority given to child-focused risk protection.
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The data is available on request from the corresponding author.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Director, Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences (BSIP), Lucknow, India for necessary facilities for carrying out this research work. We are thankful to the technical staff of the BSIP for their assistance in processing the samples. The present manuscript is the outcome of the BSIP in-house Quaternary Lake drilling Project (BSIP/RDCC/90/25-26). The authors are thankful to all the help obtained during the sampling and analysis throughout the project from the project members. Thanks are also due to local villagers of all the sampling sites for their help.
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Conceptualization, Data Analysis, Funding Acquisition, Data Curation, Investigation, Methodology, Writing—review & editing: **P.K**; Data Curation, Investigation, Methodology, Writing—review & editing: **AMS**; Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing—review & editing: **AS, AT and R.R**; Software, Data Modelling, Data Analysis, Data Curation, Writing—original: **K.S.M** . The authors declare their consent to publish the manuscript.
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Prasanna, K., Amal, M.S., More, K.S. et al. Human health implications of metal pollution in the Betwa-Yamuna river system, India: evidence from Monte Carlo risk modelling. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34780-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34780-z


