A configurational path study of adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports based on the TPB and NAM frameworks

Abstract

The development of ice and snow sports is a crucial aspect of building China into a leading sports nation. Enhancing adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports reflects the essence of sustainable and high-quality development in this field. Using data from 23 provinces and municipalities in China in 2023, this study adopts an integrated theoretical framework combining the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Norm Activation Model (NAM). Employing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), the study identifies key influencing factors and explores the configuration paths affecting adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. The findings are as follows: (1) Although public participation in ice and snow sports among adolescents is being actively promoted in China, there remains a lack of comprehensive understanding of their participation intentions and demands. (2) Subjective norms and personal norms, as sufficient conditions, show strong explanatory power in shaping adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. This highlights the importance of exploring multiple condition-variable configurations to gain a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of adolescents’ participation intentions. (3) Four primary paths to promoting adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports were identified: the comprehensive driver path (C1), the emotional and normative resonance path (C2), the integrated participation path (C3), and the knowledge-behavior co-driven paths (C4 and C5). The study recommends a collaborative approach between government and schools to integrate ice and snow sports into adolescents’ quality education system, leveraging digital technologies to enrich and enhance their ice and snow sports experience. Additionally, fostering an ice and snow culture to strengthen adolescents’ emotional identity and cultural value perception of these sports is essential to attract more youth participation. By focusing on the integrated TPB-NAM theoretical framework and incorporating risk perception and prior knowledge for evaluating participation willingness, this study effectively overcomes the limitations of single-method approaches. This expansion provides new perspectives and proposes novel paths, such as emotional and normative resonance and knowledge-behavior co-driving, for understanding and promoting ice and snow sports. These findings offer targeted market insights and intervention strategies for policymakers and practitioners. The fsQCA method identifies key drivers and contextual combinations, assisting policymakers, educators, and learners in promoting participation. Overall, this study enriches theoretical understanding and proposes comprehensive and scenario-adaptive dynamic paths to foster high-quality development in ice and snow sports while providing practical guidance for policymakers and educators.

Introduction

The education and promotion of sustainable physical health development for adolescents occupy a prominent position in the Sustainability Report of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. The report emphasizes integrating ice and snow sports into adolescents’ daily lives, recognizing them as an effective means of promoting physical health¹. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Sports Development highlights the active promotion and popularization of ice skating, skiing, and ice-and-snow recreational activities. It further underscores the importance of integrating ice-and-snow policies with campus activities to enhance adolescents’ physical and mental health while advancing the development of ice-and-snow sports². As an integral part of modern sports, ice-and-snow sports provide effective measures for improving adolescents’ physical and mental well-being, reducing obesity, promoting sleep, enhancing brain development, and strengthening bones. These activities also positively impact adolescents’ social, psychological, and cognitive health³. Consequently, the sustainable development of ice-and-snow sports for adolescents is not only a vital means of ensuring their healthy growth but also a cornerstone for advancing the comprehensive development of ice-and-snow sports. Moreover, it serves as a powerful driver for addressing adolescents’ insufficient physical activity^4,5,6. Despite the efforts of Chinese governmental departments to strengthen public participation in adolescents’ ice-and-snow sports, a comprehensive understanding of adolescents’ participation intentions and needs remains lacking. As a result, current challenges include a lack of initiative and sustainability in adolescents’ participation⁷, negative subjective attitudes⁸, and passive behavior⁵.

Willingness to participate, as a crucial prerequisite and foundation for action in determining whether adolescents engage in ice and snow sports, is a psychological decision-making process. The logical starting point for studying this process lies in research on participation willingness^8,9. However, some scholars argue that adolescents are prone to behavioral deviations during participation, necessitating further exploration of their participation behaviors¹⁰. Based on a review of existing literature in the field: (1) From the perspective of research subjects, most studies focus on behavioral intentions while neglecting the gaps between intention and behavior, as well as between internal and external factors. Participation in ice and snow sports, especially the perception of associated risks, is an indispensable factor^3,11,12,13. This includes aspects such as risk perception, evaluation, and decision-making. As uncertainties increase¹³, such as those related to climate change, environmental conditions, facility quality, and safety so do the perceived risks. Participants, as direct beneficiaries of these activities, are undeniably responsible for ensuring their own safety and that of others. Furthermore, the level of knowledge, technical proficiency, or accumulated experience in ice and snow sports can significantly influence their willingness to participate. Studies have shown that prior knowledge positively affects attitudes and serves as a strong predictor of willingness to participate in sports^10,14,15. (2) From the theoretical perspective, some research adopts the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or its extended models to explore participation intentions, mechanisms, and pathways^8,16. These studies primarily focus on internal psychological factors, such as attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. However, few studies investigate the mechanisms through which external factors influence the relationship between participation intentions and actions. As a result, there is limited evidence to clarify the interplay between external factors and the intention-behavior relationship. (3) From the perspective of available data, most studies collect data from specific regions, limiting their ability to systematically identify, compare, and interpret the factors influencing willingness to participate in ice and snow sports^16,17. In examining the factors affecting adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports, the methodological approach is critical. According to previous research^10,11, two main analytical strategies are widely employed: (1) Multivariate statistical models, which researchers use to estimate the contributions of various hypothesized causal factors or interaction terms to the outcome, typically while controlling for other variables^10,12,18. This approach provides quantitative and comparable results, aiding in identifying and measuring the impact of specific factors. (2) Case or qualitative studies, which focus on specific circumstances within particular countries or regions and explore causal relationships through in-depth qualitative analysis^19,20,21. These studies often emphasize detailed explanations of individual cases rather than broad quantitative analyses. While both methods have their strengths, they also exhibit notable limitations. Multivariate statistical models, despite their capacity to handle large datasets, often focus on the influence of a single or a few factors, potentially overlooking interactions and synergies among multiple variables. As a result, this linear approach may fail to capture the complexity of adolescents’ participation behaviors fully. Conversely, while case studies provide in-depth insights, their lack of extensive data support limits the generalizability and transferability of their conclusions. These methodological limitations have led to fragmented findings in the literature, with insufficient theoretical coherence and integrative understanding of adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports. To comprehensively understand the drivers of participation, it is necessary to adopt more holistic and systematic approaches to analyze and interpret these influencing factors. This may involve combining quantitative and qualitative methods, considering the interactions among multiple factors, and adopting interdisciplinary perspectives for a more comprehensive exploration^22,23.

With the continuous increase in adolescents’ physical activity levels and significant investments in regional economies, ecological environments, society, and education, the participation rate in ice and snow sports among adolescents and the popularity of these activities have improved. Current research paradigms mainly focus on three aspects: (1) Literature and questionnaire surveys: This approach is primarily used to explore the factors influencing adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports and the relationships between them. It involves analyzing existing literature and conducting surveys to understand the impact of various factors on adolescents’ participation levels. (2) Factor analysis: This method investigates the relationships and mechanisms between factors influencing adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. Through factor analysis, researchers can identify and quantify the key factors affecting participation intentions. (3) Micro-level or individual-level studies: Based on theories such as the Theory of Planned Behavior and Grounded Theory, this approach analyzes the factors influencing individual participation in ice and snow sports, mechanisms for promotion, and strategic recommendations from a personal perspective. While these three research paradigms have their respective strengths, they often focus on exploring the correlation between single factors and outcome variables. They fail to fully account for the interactions and complex logic among multiple factors. This limitation restricts the effective contextualization, promotion, and implementation of research findings. Therefore, adopting a more integrated research approach is necessary. This would not only consider individual factors but also analyze the interactions among multiple factors and how these interactions manifest in different contexts. Such an approach would provide a more comprehensive perspective and solutions to promote the sustainable development of adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports.

A comprehensive analysis of the current research on adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports reveals that this is a complex and multidimensional field. Although existing studies provide a theoretical foundation and inspiration, they exhibit several notable shortcomings, particularly in understanding the internal logic and multidimensional interactions that shape adolescents’ willingness to participate. First, most existing studies focus on the impact of single or a few factors without adequately considering the internal logic and interactions among these factors. This approach overlooks both the complexity of individuals and the contextual intricacies of participation willingness, resulting in an incomplete understanding and explanation of how adolescents’ willingness to participate is formed. Second, current research fails to effectively capture the holistic and systemic factors influencing adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. This highlights limitations in understanding causal relationships, especially in exploring how to eliminate barriers to participation and the mechanisms and pathways of interactions among various factors. To address these gaps, this study utilizes survey data from 1,368 adolescents across multiple provinces and cities in China. It integrates Ajzen’s²⁴ self-interest-based theory of planned behavior (TPB) and Schwartz’s²⁵ prosocial-based norm activation model (NAM), incorporating two additional variables—risk perception and prior knowledge—into a TPB-NAM integrated model. Employing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), the study aims to empirically examine the influence of different antecedent variables on adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports and uncover the complex configurations and interactive relationships among multidimensional conditional variables. From a configurational perspective, this research delves into the multidimensional factors and driving pathways of adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. It aims to more effectively identify and address the barriers impacting participation willingness, providing targeted and practical strategies and recommendations for promoting adolescents’ engagement in ice and snow sports.

Model design

Based on a review of the literature and grounded in the perspectives of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the norm activation model (NAM), this study identifies key variables influencing adolescents’ behavioral intention to participate in ice and snow sports. A measurement model is then designed to evaluate the factors affecting their participation intentions.

Theoretical basis

Theory of planned behavior

In the field of academic research, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) has been widely applied and studied as a social psychology theory describing the relationship between attitudes and behavior²⁶. TPB constructs a cognition-driven behavioral model, emphasizing that behavioral intention is the key predictor of actual behavior. Behavioral intention, in turn, is influenced by behavioral attitude (BA), subjective norm (SN), and perceived behavioral control (PBC). According to TPB, the combination of a more positive behavioral attitude, stronger subjective norms, and greater perceived behavioral control enhances an individual’s intention to perform a specific behavior²⁶. In this study: Behavioral attitude (BA): Refers to adolescents’ perceptions and evaluations of participating in ice and snow sports. TPB posits that attitude is a crucial factor influencing behavioral intention. A positive evaluation of the behavior increases the likelihood of performing that behavior²⁶. In other words, a favorable behavioral attitude contributes to promoting the occurrence of corresponding behavior²⁷. Subjective norm (SN): Refers to the psychological tendency of adolescents to be influenced by external social pressure and expectations when deciding whether to participate in ice and snow sports. These influences may come from family, classmates, friends, or broader sociocultural factors. Such pressures and expectations can significantly shape individual behavioral choices and patterns²⁸. Perceived behavioral control (PBC): Refers to adolescents’ personal perceptions of their abilities and resources required to participate in ice and snow sports. This perception involves their beliefs about the extent to which they can successfully engage in such activities. Factors such as skills, time availability, capabilities, and external support typically influence this perception. For instance, studies by Liang Jinhui and others have validated the significant positive impact of perceived behavioral control on participation intention^5,16.

Norm activation model

The norm activation model (NAM) has been widely applied to studying public participation behaviors, particularly in prosocial and pro-environmental domains²⁵. According to NAM, personal norms directly influence an individual’s willingness to engage in pro-environmental behaviors^25,29. Within the model, awareness of consequences (AC) serves as a precursor to ascription of responsibility (AR), which, in turn, acts as a precursor to personal norms (PN). The effects of AC and AR on intentions and behaviors are mediated through personal norms^28,29,30. Thus, these factors are grouped under the same dimension and collectively referred to as “personal norms.” In this study, personal norms refer to the sense of individual responsibility and the constraints or influences from others on adolescents’ choices to participate in ice and snow sports. These norms encompass both individual responsibility and the external influence of public behavior and media support. When family members, classmates, or media surrounding an adolescent show a supportive attitude toward participation in ice and snow sports, the individual’s sense of alignment with collective responsibility increases, enhancing their inclination to participate. Additionally, when adolescents perceive that participating in ice and snow sports aligns entirely with their awareness of positive outcomes (result consciousness), their willingness to engage in such activities also rises. This conceptualization of personal norms emphasizes the interaction between individual perceptions and external influences in shaping participation intentions in ice and snow sports.

Variable selection and model construction

The theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the norm activation model (NAM) provide two complementary perspectives on individual behavior in the context of sports. However, TPB overlooks aspects beyond volitional and non-volitional dimensions when addressing human decision-making processes³¹. Similarly, NAM does not sufficiently account for the significance of volitional and non-volitional processes²⁸. Studies have shown that integrating personal norms into the TPB framework enhances the model’s explanatory power, as personal norms are associated with heightened feelings of moral obligation and contribute to a deeper understanding of participation behavior^9,32. Personal norms, influenced by awareness of consequences and ascription of responsibility, exert equal or even stronger influence on intentions or behaviors compared to subjective norms. Based on recommendations from Onwezen²⁸, Bai³⁰, Li³³, Liu³⁴, and Chen Lirong³⁵, this study seeks to construct an integrated framework by combining TPB and NAM. Additionally, it incorporates extended factors specific to ice and snow sports, such as risk perception (RP) and prior knowledge (PK), to address the limitations of each individual theory and provide a comprehensive evaluation of adolescents’ participation intentions in ice and snow sports (Fig. 1). This framework explores the interactions among the core variables of TPB and NAM, as well as the relationships between the social dimensions of volitional factors and the moral dimensions of normative factors, and between the awareness factors of cognitive dimensions and the attitudinal factors of volitional dimensions. Compared to standalone models, the expanded and integrated theoretical framework offers stronger explanatory power for understanding adolescents’ intentions to participate in ice and snow sports.

Fig. 1

Theoretical structure model of willingness to participate based on TPB-NAM.

Research methods and process

Based on the research model of influencing factors on adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in ice and snow sports, this study conducted questionnaire surveys, refined the questionnaire design, and presented processes for data collection, validity and reliability testing, and data calibration.

Research method

Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is a method used in the social sciences to analyze and compare qualitative data^24,36,37,38. The application of QCA requires clarification of two critical aspects: first, formulating a result-oriented research question, often expressed as “What combinations of core conditions can lead to a specific outcome?“; second, determining these outcomes and their potential causal conditions based on theory and knowledge of possible variables. In this study, fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) is employed to explore the driving factor combinations influencing adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. First, fsQCA addresses complex causal relationships^39,40,41: QCA emphasizes causal complexity and can identify multiple pathways leading to the same outcome (e.g., willingness to participate in ice and snow sports). Variables from the TPB and NAM models may interact to form configurations that influence willingness. This method is particularly suitable for studying sports behavior, which can result from combinations of various psychological, social, and environmental factors⁴¹. In contrast, SEM and multiple regression typically focus on single pathways, assuming that dependent variables are influenced by independent variables independently or interactively, which often fails to fully capture the complex relationships between variables^42,43. For example, traditional regression methods assume symmetry between positive and negative effects, while SEM requires confirming that multicollinearity issues are resolved⁴⁴, potentially obscuring significant findings. Second, fsQCA effectively handles asymmetric causal relationships³⁶: For instance, the combination of high attitude and high subjective norms may lead to participation, while the combination of low attitude and high perceived risk may result in non-participation. SEM and regression methods often imply linear symmetry assumptions, making it challenging to reveal the complex behaviors of outcome variables under different conditions^42,43. Third, fsQCA is more sensitive to small sample sizes, making it suitable for exploratory studies, especially when large-scale data collection is challenging (e.g., studying adolescent sports behavior in specific regions)³⁶. SEM generally requires larger sample sizes to ensure model stability, while regression analysis may struggle to provide robust estimates with small samples^42,43. Fourth, fsQCA emphasizes necessary and sufficient conditions³⁶: fsQCA can distinguish between “necessary” conditions and “sufficient” conditions, helping identify which factors are essential and which are effective only in specific combinations. This capability is invaluable for theoretical development and practical guidance, whereas SEM and regression methods are less effective at distinguishing necessity or evaluating the sufficiency of complex condition combinations^42,43. Fifth, fsQCA aligns closely with the research objectives: The goal of this study is to analyze the configurational pathways of adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports rather than merely verifying the independent effects of specific variables. The configurational perspective of fsQCA is highly compatible with this objective, providing richer explanations. SEM and regression may fall short when dealing with complex pathways that are not fully understood, potentially overlooking the diversity of interactions and pathways among variables⁴³. In contrast, fsQCA offers a more comprehensive analytical perspective⁴².

Following recommendations from the literature: The raw data were transformed into fuzzy-set responses. Missing responses were removed, and new variables were constructed by combining different items. According to Woodside’s⁴⁵ method, three key calibration thresholds were calculated: 5%: Fully non-membership, 50%: Crossover point, 95%: Fully membership. This step precisely defines the membership degree of variables. The fsQCA software was used to automatically calibrate all constructed values between 0 and 1. The data were converted into QCA format, and necessity and sufficiency analyses were conducted to predict the relationships between condition variables and outcome variables at both high (presence) and low (absence) levels.

Questionnaire design

This study utilized a questionnaire-based survey to describe and explore the behaviors of Chinese adolescents regarding their willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. The questionnaire items were developed based on the research motivation and literature. The design and measurement of variables drew upon scales such as the Cognitive Trust Scale³⁹, Subjective Norm and Perceived Behavioral Control Scales⁴⁶, Self-Efficacy and Behavioral Intention Scales⁴⁷, Risk Attitude Scales⁴⁸, and findings from various other studies (Table 1). The content of the questionnaire was appropriately adjusted according to research needs and divided into three parts: (1) Demographic Information: This section collected basic information about the respondents, including gender, age, education level, prior participation in ice and snow sports, and family income level. (2) Antecedent Variables: This section included three core components derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior: Behavioral Attitude^49,50,51, Subjective Norms^46,50, and Perceived Behavioral Control^46,50,52. It also incorporated the core component of the Norm Activation Model, Personal Norms^25,35. In addition, two extended variables, Risk Perception^48,49,53 and Prior Knowledge^5,15,54, were defined based on relevant literature. (3) Outcome Variable:

The final section measured the respondents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports^5,55,56. To ensure the validity and reliability of the questionnaire’s content, it underwent expert reviews and pilot testing. The final version contained 31 items, including 2 validation items. A five-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree) was used to quantify participants’ attitudes and perceptions.

Table 1 Factors influencing participation intention.

Participants and procedure

In the sample selection process, this study comprehensively considered factors such as geographical distribution, economic development level, and policy support to ensure the representativeness and external generalizability of the research findings. Accordingly, 10 provinces and 13 cities were selected as sample regions, and a stratified random sampling method was employed for data collection. The specific procedures are as follows:

Selection criteria for provinces and cities

To ensure that the sample covers regions with varying levels of development and different degrees of winter sports promotion, this study selected 10 provinces from the following three categories: (1) Regions with abundant winter sports resources (e.g., Heilongjiang, Jilin, Xinjiang): These provinces possess rich natural ice and snow resources, a strong foundation for winter sports participation, and serve as key winter sports hubs in China; (2) Regions with strong policy support (e.g., Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi): These regions have benefited from policy incentives such as the Winter Olympics, which have significantly boosted youth participation in winter sports in recent years; (3) Economically developed regions with limited natural snow resources (e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan): Although these provinces lack natural winter sports conditions, their economic strength has facilitated the development of indoor ski resorts and winter sports tourism, forming emerging winter sports markets.

At the city level, this study selected first-tier, second-tier, and underdeveloped cities to comprehensively examine the impact of urban-rural differences and economic development levels on youth participation in winter sports. The specific cities include: (1) First-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou): These economically advanced cities have mature sports industries and well-established winter sports facilities, and youth participation in winter sports is likely influenced by market-driven factors; (2) Second-tier cities (e.g., Harbin, Zhangjiakou, Urumqi): Some of these cities have become winter sports hubs due to their geographical advantages, possessing rich skiing resources and government support policies; (3) Underdeveloped cities (e.g., Altay, Baishan, Erguna): Although these cities have lower economic levels, some boast superior natural ice and snow conditions, and youth participation in winter sports may be shaped by socio-cultural factors.

Sampling method

This study employed a stratified random sampling approach, following a three-layer sampling strategy at the regional, city, and individual levels:

First Layer: Regional Stratification. Based on geographical distribution, economic development level, and availability of winter sports resources, China was divided into six major regions: Northeast, Northwest, North China, East China, South China, and Southwest. A representative province was selected from each region.

Second Layer: City Selection. Within each selected province, cities were chosen based on their economic development level, population size, and winter sports popularity to ensure diverse and representative samples.

Third Layer: Individual Sampling. Within the selected cities, a combination of stratified random sampling and convenience sampling was used to recruit participants from the following sources: (1) School Samples: Participants were drawn from primary, junior high, and senior high school students using proportional stratified random sampling to reflect differences in winter sports participation across various age groups; (2) Winter Sports Venues and Club Samples: Participants were randomly selected from ski resorts, ice rinks, and winter sports clubs, ensuring that the dataset includes actual winter sports participants; (3) Online Survey: Electronic questionnaires were distributed through social media and school networks to include youth who have not participated in winter sports, allowing a comparison between participation intentions and actual behaviors.

The study targeted adolescents participating in snow and ice sports and employed both online and offline methods for data collection to ensure comprehensiveness. Online surveys were conducted from March to April 2023, mainly via the “Wenjuanxing” platform, leveraging national snow and ice work groups and “Snow and Ice Circles” to collect data. A total of 1121 questionnaires were collected, of which 1001 were valid after excluding invalid responses, yielding an effective rate of 89.3%. Offline surveys were conducted from November 2022 to March 2023. The research team members distributed questionnaires during adjudication of youth snow and ice competitions in Xinjiang and field visits to snow and ice specialty schools. A total of 400 questionnaires were randomly distributed, with 395 returned (recovery rate: 98.6%), and 367 deemed valid (effective rate: 92.9%). To enhance the representativeness and data reliability, this study conducted balance checks on gender, age, and geographical distribution after data collection and removed invalid responses to minimize sampling bias. In total, the final sample included 1368 questionnaires from multiple provinces and cities such as Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Guangzhou, demonstrating strong representativeness.

Sample

The demographic characteristics of the sampled population are shown in Table 2. Respondents in the survey of adolescents’ participation in snow and ice sports were almost evenly split by gender: 588 male participants (43%) and 780 female participants (57%). Regarding age groups, 292 respondents (21.3%) were in the 7–12 age group; 203 respondents (14.8%) were aged 13–15; 126 respondents (9.2%) were aged 16–18; and the 19–24 age group accounted for the majority, with 747 respondents (54.6%). In terms of educational levels, undergraduate and above accounted for 847 respondents (61.9%), elementary school accounted for 23.3%, and secondary school only 14.8%. Among the participants, 502 respondents (36.7%) had experience with snow and ice sports, while 866 respondents (63.3%) had no experience. Regarding household income levels, approximately 30.18% of respondents reported monthly household incomes below 3,000 CNY, 35.57% reported incomes between 3001 and 6000 CNY, 25.22% between 6001 and 10,000 CNY, and 8.99% above 10,001 CNY. Overall, the survey sample composition aligns closely with the actual conditions of adolescents in the surveyed regions, ensuring sufficient representativeness. After explaining the purpose of the study in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, informed consent was obtained from the participating adolescents, their parents, and teachers. Data from 1,368 participants (43% boys, 57% girls) were analyzed. This study was approved by the Academic Ethics Committees of Xinjiang Agricultural University and Xinjiang Normal University (XND2023-12, XSD2023-55).

Table 2 Basic information of the sample.

Reliability and validity analysis

Reliability is an indicator used to assess the stability and consistency of measurement tools (e.g., questionnaires, tests, or scales). Cronbach’s alpha reflects the consistency or reliability of results when repeated measurements are conducted under the same conditions. In this study, PLS 2.0 statistical software was used for reliability analysis. The variables were found to be reliable (Table 3), with Cronbach’s alpha values for the constructs ranging from 0.781 to 0.906 (p < 0.05). The results are as follows: participation attitude (0.906), subjective norms (0.881), perceived behavioral control (0.781), personal norms (0.854), risk perception (0.808), prior knowledge (0.871), and willingness to participate in ice and snow sports (0.823). Since the Cronbach’s alpha values for these constructs exceeded 0.781, the constructs in this study are considered reliable⁴⁵ and are suitable for subsequent validity analysis. Validity refers to discriminant validity and convergent validity. Following Hulland’s⁵⁷ recommendations, factor analysis was employed for convergent validity analysis. In this process, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted, with the criterion being standardized regression weights of observable measurements greater than 0.6. The results, as shown in Table 3, indicate that the factor loadings for all variables exceeded 0.6 (ranging from 0.604 to 0.896, p < 0.05). Additionally, convergent validity was assessed using the Average Variance Extracted (AVE). All constructs had AVE values greater than 0.5, indicating good convergent validity, as supported by Hair’s research⁵⁸. The results show that the AVE and Composite Reliability (CR) values for all variables exceed the recommended thresholds of 0.5 and 0.7, respectively. This indicates that the measurement model used in this study exhibits excellent reliability and validity, providing a solid foundation for subsequent data analysis and research conclusions.

Table 3 Confirmatory factor analysis of variables.

Li et al.⁵⁹ recommend that corrected weights should range between 0.1 and 0.8, with corrected values below 0.9. Additionally, the square root of the Average Variance Extracted (AVE) for each variable should exceed the correlation coefficients for each variable. The results of the correlation analysis among variables are shown in Table 4. The correlation weights are positive and significant at the 0.01 level. Table 4 indicates that there is a significant positive correlation between adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports and their behavioral attitudes. Significant positive correlations are also observed between willingness and subjective norms, as well as perceived behavioral control. Furthermore, the willingness to participate in ice and snow sports is positively correlated with behavioral intention. Behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, personal norms, risk perception, and prior knowledge are all positively correlated with behavioral intention and all independent variables at the 1% significance level. None of the variables show insignificant correlations with willingness. Moreover, the arithmetic square root of each variable’s AVE is greater than 0.5, and the absolute value of the correlation coefficient of each variable is smaller than the square root of its AVE compared to other variables. This indicates that internal correlations exceed external correlations, signifying the presence of differentiation among latent variables and a high level of discriminant validity⁶⁰. In Table 4, the bolded numbers represent the square root of AVE, while the non-bolded numbers below them represent the correlation coefficients between latent variables. From Table 4, it can be observed that the bolded diagonal values are greater than the non-bolded values, confirming that the measurement model meets the requirements for discriminant validity.

Table 4 Pearson correlation coefficient and AVE root value.

Data and calibration

Data calibration is a critical step in fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), used to transform raw data into membership scores ranging between 0 and 1. These scores represent the degree to which an individual or case belongs to a specific set (variable). The purpose of calibration is to classify variables by setting thresholds into three categories: “Fully out” (0): Data below this threshold are considered entirely non-members of a set. For example, the fully out value for BA is 2.00, meaning individuals with BA less than or equal to 2.00 are regarded as completely outside the set. “Crossover point” (0.5): This point represents a membership score of 0.5, indicating uncertainty about whether an individual belongs to the set. For instance, the crossover point for BA is 4.60, implying that individuals with BA equal to 4.60 have a membership score of 0.5 in the set. “Fully in” (1): Data above this threshold are considered fully belonging to a set. For example, the fully in value for BA is 5.00, meaning individuals with BA equal to or greater than 5.00 are regarded as entirely within the set. This process quantifies the degree to which individuals belong to a set. Following Woodside’s⁴⁵ methodology, three key calibration thresholds were calculated (Table 5). This approach offers several advantages: By establishing clear thresholds for “fully out,” “crossover,” and “fully in,” it retains more data details rather than simply dichotomizing variables. Fuzzy-set analysis enables researchers to better understand the influence of different combinations of conditions on outcomes, revealing complex causal relationships more effectively than traditional regression analysis. The calibrated data can be used to explore interactions among variables within different sets and their contributions to the outcome variable, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of the analysis³⁶.

Table 5 Variable setting, assignment description and calibration table.

Ethical approval and consent to participate

This study was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and received approval from the Academic Ethics Committees of Xinjiang Agricultural University and Xinjiang Normal University (XND2023-12, XSD2023-55). Considering the participation of minors in this study, informed consent has been obtained from all participants and/or their legal guardians.

Results

Necessity analysis for single variables

This study applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and first conducted a univariate necessity analysis, which is a critical step in ensuring the scientific rigor and logical consistency of the research. The influence of the condition variables on the outcome variable was assessed through two core indicators: consistency coefficient (Consistency, Cons) and coverage (Coverage) (Table 6). According to the recommendations of Greckhamer⁶¹ and Du Yunzhou⁶², a consistency coefficient greater than 0.9 is generally considered the standard for necessary conditions, while a range of 0.9 ≥ Cons ≥ 0.8 is considered indicative of sufficient conditions. In this study, the consistency coefficients for all condition variables ranged from 0.752 to 0.886, which did not meet the necessary condition standard of 0.9. Based on Woodside’s⁴⁵ research, coverage is used to describe the extent to which a single condition variable contributes to explaining an outcome variable. In this study, the consistency coefficients for subjective norms (SN) and personal norms (PN) were 0.886 and 0.813, with coverage values of 0.781 and 0.823, respectively. These values indicate that SN and PN meet the criteria for sufficient conditions and demonstrate high explanatory power in relation to the willingness to engage in snow sports.

Based on these results, although no single condition variable constitutes a necessary condition, subjective norms (SN) and personal norms (PN) emerged as sufficient conditions and showed strong explanatory power in understanding the willingness of adolescents to participate in snow sports. This finding highlights the importance of further exploring the configuration of multiple condition variables to gain a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of adolescents’ willingness to participate in snow sports.

Table 6 Necessity test of conditional variables.

Configuration analysis of conditions

In this study, the configuration analysis of conditions using fsQCA aimed to explore how the combination of multiple condition variables jointly influences a specific outcome. The core of this analysis is to simplify Boolean functions through the Quine-McCluskey method to identify key combinations of conditions. The minimum irreducible term (PRI) was set at 0.7 for the analysis to derive three types of solutions: complex solutions, reduced solutions, and intermediate solutions. The reduced and intermediate solutions were used to distinguish core conditions and peripheral conditions within each configuration, where core conditions are directly related to the outcome’s explanation, and peripheral conditions provide supplementary insights^36,45.

Based on this analytical framework, the study identified five configurations that promote adolescents’ willingness to participate in snow sports: C1: SN * PBC * PN * PK; C2: BA * SN * PN * RP; C3: BA * SN * PBC * PN; C4: BA * SN * PN * PK; C5: BA * PN * RP * PK. These configurations illustrate which factors are most critical and how they interact to foster adolescents’ willingness to engage in snow sports under different combinations of conditions. According to the data in Table 7, the consistency coefficients for these configurations ranged from 0.9499 to 0.9791, significantly higher than the commonly accepted standard of 0.7²⁴. The higher the consistency coefficient, the stronger the relationship between the configuration and the outcome, indicating a stronger explanatory power of the configuration⁶². A higher PRI value helps ensure that only those condition combinations that are highly stable are considered. These findings demonstrate that these configurations are highly effective in predicting or explaining adolescents’ willingness to participate in snow sports. The overall consistency is 0.9218 (greater than the threshold of 0.9), and the overall coverage of the collective configuration is 0.7167 (greater than 0.5), indicating that the five configuration paths have significant explanatory power for the outcome variable, with the research indicators being relatively robust. These findings provide an important perspective for a deeper understanding of the multidimensional factors influencing adolescents’ willingness to participate in snow sports, suggesting that future research can further explore other uncovered conditions or contexts to fully understand and promote adolescent participation in snow sports.

Table 7 Configuration of participation intention results.

Configuration path analysis

Considering the context of ice and snow sports, the configurations are named based on their core and peripheral conditions: C1: Comprehensive Motivation for Ice and Snow Sports; C2: Emotional and Norm Resonance for Ice and Snow Sports; C3: Integrated Participation in Ice and Snow Sports; C4 and C5: Knowledge and Behavior Co-Driving for Ice and Snow Sports.

Comprehensive motivational model for snow sports (C1)

The C1 configuration provides a multidimensional framework for explaining the internal and external motivations behind adolescents’ participation in snow sports. The core conditions of this configuration are subjective norms (SN), perceived behavioral control (PBC), personal norms (PN), and prior knowledge (PK), with a consistency of 0.9791, an original coverage of 0.5812, and a unique coverage of 0.0980. The high consistency and relatively high original coverage highlight the generalizability and importance of these core conditions in the overall sample.

First, we relate the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to the conditions in the configuration. TPB posits that an individual’s behavior is influenced by the expectations of others, i.e., subjective norms. In the context of snow sports, adolescents may be influenced by their families, peers, or societal culture to perceive participating in snow sports as a socially expected behavior. The SN in the configuration is one of the core conditions, reflecting the direct impact of social norms on adolescents’ willingness to engage in snow sports. According to TPB, PBC represents an individual’s perception of their ability to perform a certain behavior. In the context of snow sports, adolescents may assess their likelihood of participating based on factors like familiarity with the sport, skill level, and access to resources (e.g., facilities, equipment). PBC in the configuration emphasizes the role of perceived control, indicating that adolescents feel a strong sense of control and confidence about their ability to participate. In TPB, behavioral intentions are the result of the combined influence of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. While TPB mainly focuses on the formation of behavioral intentions, in practice, behavioral intentions often translate into actual behavior. In the C1 configuration, PK serves as a peripheral condition, reflecting how knowledge and preparation for behavior implementation affect the transformation of behavioral intentions. Combining the framework of TPB, the SN, PBC, and PK in C1 directly influence adolescents’ attitudes, perceived control, and social norms related to snow sports. These factors then affect their behavioral intentions, which in turn drive their participation behaviors.

Second, the Norm Activation Model (NAM) emphasizes that individual behavior is driven not only by external social norms but also by internal moral emotions and a sense of responsibility. The sense of moral responsibility felt by individuals in certain situations triggers them to take certain actions. In the context of snow sports, adolescents may feel that participating is something they “should do,” with this sense of responsibility arising from social culture, family education, or environmental concerns (e.g., caring about the health benefits of winter sports). In C1, PN is a core condition, indicating that an individual’s sense of responsibility or internal motivation is crucial for adolescents’ participation in snow sports. According to NAM, social norms also play a role in activating personal norms. SN in C1 highlights the influence of social expectations on individual behavior. For instance, if adolescents perceive snow sports as socially recognized and valued, they are more likely to participate. The role of social norms in NAM is similar to the moral emotions that activate personal behavior. In NAM, perceived control and prior knowledge, while not direct activating factors, are prerequisites for activating internal norms and a sense of responsibility. Only when adolescents feel they have the ability, resources, and skills will they perceive themselves as responsible for participating in snow sports.

The relationship between the conditional variables (SN, PBC, PN, PK) in the Comprehensive Motivation Type Configuration (C1) of snow and ice sports and TPB and NAM is reflected not only in the influence of each variable on participation intention and behavior, but also in their interactive effects. For example, social norms (SN) can enhance adolescents’ willingness to participate by activating their personal responsibility (PN). Perceived behavioral control (PBC) is the key factor in ensuring the implementation of these social norms and personal responsibility. The intersection of TPB and NAM suggests that the motivation for adolescents to participate in snow and ice sports is influenced not only by external social norms, but also by internal moral responsibility and self-control. The combination of conditions in the C1 configuration reflects the complexity of the interaction between external social influence and internal responsibility, indicating that this motivation is driven by multiple factors working together.

Emotional and normative resonance model for snow sports (C2)

The C2 configuration provides a theoretical framework that emphasizes the role of emotions and social norms in explaining adolescents’ motivations to participate in snow sports. In this configuration, emotions, norms, and a sense of responsibility interact to drive adolescents’ behaviors. The core conditions in this configuration are behavioral attitude (BA), personal norms (PN), and risk perception (RP), with a consistency of 0.9499, an original coverage of 0.5453, and a unique coverage of 0.0479.

First, in TPB, behavioral attitude refers to an individual’s evaluation of a behavior. Adolescents’ attitudes toward snow sports are influenced not only by the intrinsic appeal of the sport (e.g., fun, health benefits) but also by the perceived risks. For instance, adolescents may worry about the risks of injury in snow sports, such as falling or collisions. If they perceive these risks as high, their attitude toward snow sports may become negative, reducing their intention to participate. Additionally, perceived behavioral control (PBC) refers to an individual’s confidence in their ability to perform a behavior. In the case of snow sports, adolescents’ risk perceptions may influence their confidence in effectively controlling or avoiding these risks. For example, if adolescents believe they are more likely to get injured, their sense of control will decrease, which will further affect their intention to participate. While subjective norms (SN) in TPB highlight the influence of social expectations on behavior, risk perception (RP) can also affect behavioral intentions through social influences. For instance, parents’ or peers’ concerns about the risks may influence adolescents’ perceptions and their willingness to engage in snow sports. If others around them perceive the sport as risky, adolescents may be more likely to avoid participation.

Second, in NAM, an individual’s behavior is typically driven by both perceived social norms and personal responsibility. In the C2 configuration, adolescents may feel an internal sense of responsibility due to their perception of the potential risks in snow sports. For example, if adolescents are aware of the injury risks involved, they may feel a responsibility to take appropriate safety measures or avoid engaging in high-risk activities. This sense of responsibility can heighten their preference for safer forms of exercise or activities. According to NAM, social norms influence an individual’s behavioral decisions. In snow sports, societal perceptions of risk (such as concerns voiced by parents or schools) can affect adolescents’ decisions. If society widely believes snow sports are high-risk, adolescents may experience negative normative pressure from society, which reduces their intention to participate.

Third, in C2, risk perception (RP) is one of the core conditions, signaling the critical role of risk awareness in adolescents’ willingness to engage in snow sports. Adolescents’ emotional attitudes (e.g., fun, excitement) toward snow sports may interact with their risk perception. If there is a conflict between risk perception (such as injury risks) and emotional experiences (like excitement or enjoyment), this conflict could affect their intentions. For instance, adolescents may avoid high-risk sports, especially when they experience stronger negative emotions. Social perceptions of risk can also influence adolescents’ participation decisions through social norms. If adolescents hear negative opinions about snow sports in their family or social circles (e.g., concerns about injury), they may emotionally avoid participation, further reducing their willingness to engage. As risk perception may activate a sense of responsibility, particularly within the NAM framework, adolescents’ concern for their own safety, as well as their responsibility to their family and friends, may influence their behavior. If adolescents perceive snow sports as too dangerous, they may choose not to participate or take precautions for safety.

The C2 configuration reflects the interaction between emotional drive and social norms. Adolescents may feel emotionally motivated to participate in snow sports but also confront the cognitive dissonance caused by the perceived risks. This conflict affects their behavior decisions, particularly when sufficient information or safety measures are lacking. However, societal perceptions of risk will directly impact adolescents’ decisions, especially if they sense societal or familial concerns about the activity. If adolescents perceive significant risks, their responsibility sense may be triggered, leading them to either avoid snow sports or engage in safer forms of the activity.

Ice and snow sports universal participation integration type (C3)

In the C3 configuration, the core conditions include behavioral attitude (BA), subjective norm (SN), perceived behavioral control (PBC), and personal norm (PN). The consistency of this configuration is 0.9591, indicating a very strong relationship between these conditions and adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports, with high explanatory power. At the same time, the raw coverage is 0.5267, meaning this configuration can explain more than half of the cases. The unique coverage is relatively low, indicating that this is not the only solution, but when core conditions are involved, the influence of other conditions is minimal.

Firstly, in TPB, behavioral attitude refers to an individual’s positive or negative evaluation of a behavior. In the C3 configuration, behavioral attitude is one of the core conditions, indicating that adolescents’ attitudes toward ice and snow sports play a key role in determining whether they participate. If adolescents find ice and snow sports interesting, healthy, and fulfilling, they are more likely to exhibit a positive behavioral attitude, thus increasing their willingness to participate. Subjective norm involves the perceived social pressure, especially the expectations of significant others (such as parents, friends, classmates, etc.) on the behavior. In the C3 configuration, the role of subjective norm is also critical. Adolescents may be influenced by family, friends, or classmates, especially if these people support or encourage participation in ice and snow sports, making them more likely to follow these expectations and increase their chances of participation. Perceived behavioral control reflects an individual’s confidence in their ability to perform a behavior. In the context of ice and snow sports, whether adolescents believe they can effectively participate, and whether they have the ability to overcome challenges in the sport (such as skills, physical fitness, equipment, environment, etc.), is crucial to their intention to participate. For example, if adolescents feel that ice and snow sports have a high threshold and lack the necessary skills or resources, their intention to participate may be suppressed.

Secondly, under the NAM framework, personal norm (PN) is also a core condition. The model suggests that an individual’s behavior is driven by an internal sense of responsibility or moral obligation. Whether adolescents feel they have a responsibility to participate in ice and snow sports often depends on their social and moral evaluation of the behavior. NAM posits that individuals’ perceptions of social norms and personal responsibility influence their behavior decisions. In the context of ice and snow sports, adolescents may feel that participating in this sport is a social responsibility or moral obligation, especially in terms of promoting sports health and supporting winter sports culture. For example, if adolescents perceive societal expectations for them to engage in ice and snow sports or feel responsible for promoting these sports (such as participating in school ice and snow sports programs or advocating for healthy exercise habits), their intention to participate will increase.

Thirdly, in the C3 configuration, behavioral attitude (BA), subjective norm (SN), perceived behavioral control (PBC), and personal norm (PN) act as core conditions together, driving adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports. In TPB, behavioral attitude and subjective norm interact to influence adolescents’ behavioral intention. If adolescents like ice and snow sports emotionally and the surrounding social norms also support their participation, they will be more actively involved in ice and snow sports. This interaction helps form a positive participation cycle, strengthening adolescents’ intention to participate. However, in the C3 configuration, the combination of perceived behavioral control and subjective norm is particularly important. If adolescents believe they have the ability to participate in ice and snow sports (perceived behavioral control) and their social circle encourages their participation (subjective norm), they will be more confident and willing to engage in the activity. This confidence and social support jointly drive their intention to participate. Furthermore, within the NAM framework, personal norm (PN) reflects adolescents’ internal sense of responsibility and moral obligation. If adolescents believe participating in ice and snow sports is a beneficial behavior or that society expects them to participate, this internal sense of responsibility will strengthen their intention to participate, especially when facing challenges (such as technical requirements, environmental conditions, etc.).

Finally, combining TPB and NAM, the core conditions of the C3 configuration demonstrate the complexity and multidimensionality of adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports. Among the five configurations, C3 stands out, revealing the following points: (1) Multiple drivers of behavior decision: The C3 configuration indicates that adolescents’ decision-making regarding participation in ice and snow sports is not solely based on emotional attitude (BA), but rather takes into account social expectations (SN), self-efficacy (PBC), and responsibility (PN). The interaction of these factors collectively promotes the formation of adolescents’ intention to participate. (2) Combination of intrinsic motivation and external support: The role of combining behavioral attitude and social norms shows the dual influence of external and internal factors on behavior decision-making. If adolescents believe that ice and snow sports are meaningful to them (such as bringing fun, health, etc.), and those around them also expect them to participate, they are more likely to make the decision to engage. (3) Self-efficacy and social support: The combination of perceived behavioral control and subjective norm demonstrates the complementary roles of self-efficacy and social support. If adolescents have enough confidence to overcome challenges in the sport and feel encouraged by family, friends, or peers, they are more likely to participate in ice and snow sports.

Ice and snow knowledge and behavior co-driving type (C4 and C5)

In the C4 and C5 configurations, the core conditions are behavioral attitude (BA), personal norm (PN), and prior knowledge (PK). These two configurations share the same core conditions and can therefore be viewed as a second-order equivalent pattern^26,62. Their consistency is 0.9584 and 0.9611, both higher than the generally acceptable consistency standard (0.7), indicating that these condition combinations have high explanatory power regarding adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports. The raw coverage is 0.5177 and 0.4744, showing that these configurations can explain more than half of the cases. The unique coverage is low, indicating that these configurations are not unique solutions, but when core conditions are involved, the influence of other conditions is minimal.

Firstly, in TPB, behavioral attitude refers to an individual’s evaluation of a behavior and is a key factor driving behavioral intention. In the C4 and C5 configurations, behavioral attitude reflects adolescents’ positive evaluation of ice and snow sports. If they find ice and snow sports fun, challenging, and fulfilling, they are more likely to participate. This aligns with the role of behavioral attitude in TPB. In C4 and C5 configurations, prior knowledge refers to adolescents’ foundational knowledge and experience of ice and snow sports, including skills, historical background, cultural understanding, etc. TPB does not directly mention prior knowledge as a core element, but its role is similar to perceived behavioral control (PBC). If adolescents have sufficient knowledge of ice and snow sports and believe they possess the necessary skills and knowledge, they will be more confident in trying and participating in the sport. The richness of prior knowledge not only increases perceived behavioral control but also strengthens adolescents’ behavioral attitudes, thus enhancing their intention to participate. In NAM, personal norm refers to an individual’s moral obligation or sense of responsibility. In the C4 and C5 configurations, personal norm reflects whether adolescents believe participating in ice and snow sports is a social responsibility or moral obligation. For example, if adolescents believe participating in ice and snow sports will promote winter sports’ popularity or inspire others to join the activity, they will have a stronger intention to participate. Personal norm can be seen as an internal driving force for behavior, which aligns with the core assumptions of the NAM model.

Secondly, in the NAM model, personal norm is a moral motivation driving behavior. For adolescents, if they believe participating in ice and snow sports helps promote winter sports culture or is a responsibility in their social role (such as a student, athlete, or community member), personal norm becomes a powerful motivator. Adolescents may think that participating in ice and snow sports contributes to their personal growth and social progress, thus increasing their motivation to participate. However, behavioral attitude and personal norm are core elements in both NAM and TPB. In the C4 and C5 configurations, the combination of behavioral attitude and personal norm reflects the interaction between external emotional attitudes and internal moral responsibilities. If adolescents not only have a positive attitude toward ice and snow sports but also feel responsible to participate and promote these activities, their intention to participate will be further strengthened. This interaction reinforces the drive for behavior, making it more internalized and socialized.

Thirdly, in the C4 and C5 configurations, behavioral attitude, personal norm, and prior knowledge work together to drive adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports. Adolescents’ behavioral attitude toward ice and snow sports is often based on their knowledge of the sport. The richness of prior knowledge (such as rules, skills, safety, etc.) enhances their positive evaluation of the activity, making them more likely to participate. For example, understanding the fun and challenges of ice and snow sports may enhance adolescents’ intention to participate. The interaction between personal norm and behavioral attitude indicates that adolescents do not decide whether to participate in ice and snow sports solely based on their interest, but also consider social and moral responsibilities. If they feel responsible for promoting ice and snow sports through their participation, their behavioral attitude will be further reinforced. This socialized sense of responsibility and moral obligation further drives adolescents to form a strong intention to participate. Furthermore, prior knowledge in the C4 and C5 configurations acts as a core condition, enhancing perceived behavioral control (PBC) and improving behavioral attitudes. Having sufficient knowledge about ice and snow sports not only helps increase adolescents’ confidence but also influences their positive evaluation of the activity. Prior knowledge helps them better understand and master the sport, thereby enhancing their intention to participate.

Finally, combining TPB and NAM, the C4 and C5 configurations reveal: (1) Multiple driving factors: These configurations indicate that adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports is driven by a combination of behavioral attitude, personal norm, and prior knowledge. Behavioral attitude reflects emotional factors, personal norm reflects internal responsibility, and prior knowledge provides adolescents with the ability and confidence to participate. These factors interact to jointly drive the formation of intention to participate. (2) Combination of external social factors and internal moral responsibility: The C4 and C5 configurations emphasize the combination of external social factors (such as others’ expectations, social responsibility) and adolescents’ internal moral responsibility. When evaluating the intention to participate in ice and snow sports, adolescents not only consider personal interest but also reflect on their social roles and responsibilities.

Robustness analysis

In QCA, the calibration of membership measures is crucial, especially in determining condition combinations, as how the calibration threshold is set directly impacts the results of the configuration analysis. A comparison was made by setting different values for PRI (minimum irreducible item), such as 0.75 and 0.80, and contrasting these with the results obtained when PRI = 0.7. The findings revealed that, when PRI takes different values, the core conditions (such as behavioral attitude, personal norm, perceived behavioral control, etc.) remain consistent. This suggests that these core conditions are highly resistant to changes in PRI. Even with different PRI values leading to variations in membership scores, the core conditions still maintain their importance and stability. The results indicate that the core conditions are both key and reliable in driving adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports, and they can effectively explain the formation of participation intentions even under different calibration thresholds. Although adjusting the PRI value does affect the raw and unique coverage of certain configurations, the overall changes in total coverage and consistency are minimal, ranging from 0.5 to 1.5%. Through calibration with different PRI values and comparative analysis, the study shows that, even under different PRI threshold conditions, the core conditions of configuration analysis remain stable and effective, and the overall model continues to have strong explanatory power. The small changes observed indicate the robustness of the QCA method. Even slight adjustments in membership scores do not significantly affect the overall conclusions, thus enhancing the credibility of the findings. Therefore, the research results can be considered reliable, with strong adaptability for practical applications.

Discussion and implications

Discussion

This study combines the two behavioral prediction theories, TPB and NAM, using fsQCA to explore adolescents’ cognition about participating in ice and snow sports and to investigate the pathways influencing their intention to participate. The configuration paths show that the three variables from TPB—Behavioral Attitude (BA), Subjective Norms (SN), and Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC)—serve as core conditions in different configuration paths, playing a critical role in driving adolescents’ intentions to engage in ice and snow sports. The core variable of NAM, Personal Norm (PN), is a necessary condition in all paths, indicating that it is a fundamental and universal factor in adolescents’ intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. Personal norms play an indispensable role in the decision-making process; they are both a core factor in decision-making and a moderator or amplifier of other factors. This provides strong support for the NAM theory in explaining adolescent behavior and offers important insights for practical interventions. By strengthening adolescents’ personal norms, their intention to participate in ice and snow sports can be effectively promoted. It is evident that the decision-making process for adolescents to participate in ice and snow sports is complex, influenced by multiple internal and external factors. Understanding these factors and their interactions is crucial for developing effective strategies to encourage adolescents’ participation. The TPB-NAM integrated theoretical framework better explains the interrelationships between key variables influencing adolescents’ intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. The research framework incorporates exogenous factors such as risk perception (RP) and prior knowledge (PK), which play key roles in shaping participation intentions. The results provide empirical evidence that the integration of TPB and NAM offers the best explanatory model. This study aligns with previous research, concluding that TPB, NAM, and the TPB-NAM integrated model are conducive to explaining human intentions and behavior^{17,30,63,64,65}. These findings suggest that adolescents’ intentions to engage in ice and snow sports can be explained through volitional behavior, non-volitional behavior, and prosocial behavior.

By employing fsQCA, the study investigates the heterogeneous, multi-faceted interactions and influences within participation intention, discovering the “Comprehensive Driving Type” (C1) of ice and snow sports. It reveals the interaction of multiple factors driving adolescents’ willingness to participate, with the core being the combined influence of internal and external factors. This pathway’s multiple motivational drivers align with Ryan and Deci’s Self-Determination Theory (SDT)⁶⁶, especially its motivation internalization mechanism. SDT suggests that behavioral motivation can be categorized into external drives (external regulation, identified regulation) and internal drives (intrinsic motivation), which transform from external to internal through the process of motivation internalization. The C1 path, with SN and PBC as external drives, and PN and PK as internal motivation, constructs a multi-faceted, interactive motivational model, expanding the practical application scope of SDT theory. The existing research on internal motivation and attitudes is consistent with the results found in this study. Sports motivation and participation attitudes complement each other and are interrelated, with predictive and directional relationships. Koronios et al.^67,68,69 found that personal intrinsic constraints influence motivational factors, which in turn have a significant impact on an individual’s willingness to participate in sports and exercise, as well as their ability to cope with related constraints. Richard et al.⁷⁰ found that internal motivation positively promotes persistence in sports exercise, leading participants to engage in sports more steadfastly, demonstrating that internal motivation has a positive influence on attitudes. Vallerand et al.⁷¹ pointed out that intrinsic motivation is behavior driven by interest, helping individuals form a positive attitude toward sports participation and positively face difficulties. Han et al.⁷² found that personal responsibility (PN) plays a significant role in environmental behavior intentions, and similarly, PN in ice and snow sports explains the social responsibility influence on behavior. Ntoumani et al.⁷³ found that social identification (similar to SN) and self-efficacy (similar to PBC) jointly influence participation decisions. Sun et al.⁷⁴ indicated that knowledge accumulation not only serves as a prerequisite for behavior but also indirectly drives behavioral intentions by influencing self-efficacy. Therefore, the C1 path reveals the compound effects between variables through interaction mechanisms, providing new ideas for multi-variable integration research.

Ajzen’s⁷⁵ TPB emphasizes that behavioral intentions are determined by Behavioral Attitude (BA), Subjective Norms (SN), and Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC). In this framework, the C2 path extends SN and BA: in TPB, SN only serves as an external driving factor, while the C2 path achieves a transformation mechanism from external norms to internal norms by introducing PN. For example, parental encouragement (SN) might gradually internalize into adolescents’ sense of moral obligation toward ice and snow sports (PN). This mechanism aligns with Schwartz’s⁷⁶ research in environmental psychology. In TPB, BA focuses on rational evaluation, while the C2 path emphasizes the role of emotional identification. The study found that adolescents’ positive emotional experiences with ice and snow sports, such as enjoyment and team belonging, further enhance the influence of BA. This is consistent with Ainsworth and Sallis’⁷⁷ findings. In the NAM framework, RP is usually seen as an obstacle to behavior; however, the C2 path shows the moderating effect of RP by combining SN and PN. The study results confirm Qi et al.‘s⁷⁸ finding that adolescents may reduce their concern about risks due to the enhanced SN (policy promotion) or overcome the negative impact of RP through the activation of PN (sense of responsibility). However, Kim and Jeong’s⁷⁹ research found that the risks of ice and snow sports may reduce willingness, but the C2 path mitigates the negative effects of RP through the moderation of PN and SN. NAM emphasizes rational responsibility, while the C2 path further stimulates behavioral intentions through emotional identification (such as the joy of skiing or identification with ice and snow culture). The promotion of ice and snow sports depends on cultural attraction and positive experiences⁸⁰ (e.g., the influence of the Winter Olympics). The C2 path, through the emotional dimension of BA, expands upon Zhang et al.‘s⁸¹ research that emphasizes the core role of emotional drive in participation in ice and snow sports. Previous studies have indicated that the factors influencing behavioral intentions vary significantly across different cultural contexts^25,75, and this study further combines the risk perception characteristics of ice and snow sports to reveal the unique effect of emotional and normative resonance in this domain.

Bronfenbrenner’s social ecological model⁸² posits that individual behavior is shaped by the joint influence of multi-level environments, including micro-level (family and peers), meso-level (school and community), and macro-level (policy and culture). Comparing the C3 path with this model, the first observation is the interaction between the micro and meso environments: SN and PBC jointly form the core of the micro and meso environments. Hu et al.⁶ found that family encouragement (SN) and the accessibility of facilities (PBC) collaboratively promote adolescents’ participation in multiple settings such as school, community, and home. For example, adolescents may develop skills (PBC) in school skiing classes and participate in community ice and snow activities (SN) with family support. Secondly, unlike the social ecological model, which focuses more on environmental support, the C3 path emphasizes the activation role of PN. For example, adolescents’ identification with ice and snow culture (PN) can drive them to explore more diverse forms of participation, such as expanding from ice skating to skiing. In Ajzen’s⁷⁵ TPB framework, PBC is seen as an important antecedent to behavioral intention, but in the C3 path, PBC emphasizes supportive conditions for cross-setting participation. PBC in TPB mainly focuses on the ability within a single behavior context, while in the C3 path, PBC is more concerned with the ability transfer and resource adaptation across different contexts. For example, adolescents may feel more confident in participating in other ice and snow sports because they master skiing techniques, thereby expanding their participation range. The diversity and cross-setting nature of ice and snow sports make them more dependent on external environmental support, and the C3 path is particularly suitable for analyzing this complexity. Ainsworth and Sallis⁷⁷ noted that policy support and cultural dissemination promote participation in ice and snow sports, and the C3 path reveals the mechanism of this external support through the reinforcement of SN. Qi et al.⁷⁸ emphasized the importance of facility accessibility and skill mastery in ice and snow sports, which aligns with the key role of PBC.

Triandis’⁸³ theory of habits and behavior change emphasizes the interaction of cognition, emotions, and norms in behavior decision-making and points out that knowledge is a precondition for behavior transformation. The C4 and C5 paths correspond to two key processes in this theory: first, Triandis’ model suggests that external norms can be internalized into individuals’ behavioral intentions through knowledge support. In the C4 path, SN and PN enhance prior knowledge (PK), constructing a sense of responsibility and social identity for engaging in ice and snow sports. For example, publicity and education in community ice and snow activities may increase individuals’ knowledge (PK), which is then internalized into their personal responsibility (PN). Second, Triandis’ model emphasizes the importance of risk perception (RP) in behavior decision-making, and the C5 path highlights the joint effect of RP and PK in the formation of BA. For instance, skiers may reduce their fear of accidents (RP) due to a sufficient understanding of safety equipment (PK), making them more willing to try ice and snow sports. Ainsworth and Sallis⁷⁷ pointed out that the popularization of ice and snow sports knowledge is an important path to enhancing adolescents’ participation intentions. Both C4 and C5 reflect the importance of PK in influencing behavioral attitudes and the process of norm internalization. Wang et al.⁸⁴ found that participants’ awareness of sports risks directly impacts their behavioral intentions, which is consistent with the key role of RP in the C5 path. Bai and Zhang³⁰ found that the formation of attitudes is influenced by knowledge, risk perception, and social norms, supporting the logical structure of C4 and C5. Compared with TPB and NAM, C4 and C5 explore in more depth the cognitive process of knowledge and intention transformation, providing insights into the role of cognitive variables in adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports.

In addition, this study offers a different perspective. Previous research typically focused on linear correlations, whereas this study, based on a configurational view, identifies the combined influence of multiple factors on behavioral intention, thereby expanding the scope of research on behavioral intentions. The findings confirm the complex causal relationships underlying adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports, effectively addressing the complex causal questions that traditional quantitative regression analyses struggle to answer, such as how the interactions between independent variables and the configurations they form jointly lead to the occurrence of the outcome variable. Although this study employs the fsQCA method to identify the configurational paths of adolescents’ willingness to participate in winter sports and conducts a systematic analysis within the TPB and NAM frameworks, certain limitations remain. First, the fsQCA method relies on variable calibration, and different calibration thresholds may affect the identification of final configurations. Although robustness tests were conducted in this study, future research could explore alternative calibration standards to further validate the stability of the results. Second, fsQCA primarily examines causal configurational relationships rather than the causal effects of individual variables. This means that the study cannot directly assess the independent impact of a single factor. Future research could integrate Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) or experimental studies to further verify the causal relationships among core variables. Finally, the sample size of this study is limited. Although multiple provinces and cities were included, caution is needed when generalizing the findings. Future studies could employ larger datasets or conduct cross-cultural comparisons to enhance the applicability of the research conclusions.

Research conclusions

Based on the above discussion and analysis, this study draws the following conclusions: (1) Diversity and Complexity of Configurational Paths: By applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study reveals the diversified configurational paths that influence adolescents’ intention to participate in ice and snow sports. These paths demonstrate that the decision-making process for adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports is a complex system shaped by multiple interacting factors. (2) Applicability of the Integrated Theoretical Model: The results support the effectiveness of the TPB-NAM integrated model in explaining adolescents’ intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. This integrated model reveals the empirical roles of volitional behavior, non-volitional behavior, and prosocial (pro-environmental) behavior in adolescents’ participation in ice and snow sports. (3) Clarification of Internal Logic: The various configurational paths clearly illustrate the interactions between factors such as personal norms, behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, prior knowledge, and risk perception. In particular, personal norms play a central role in all paths, highlighting the importance of intrinsic motivation in the formation of adolescents’ participation intentions. (4) Confirmation of Robustness Testing: By adjusting the minimum unresolvable item (PRI) value and conducting comparative analysis, the study confirms the robustness of the obtained configurational paths. The results show that under different calibration thresholds, the consistency of core conditions and the slight variations in overall coverage and consistency validate the reliability of the analysis results.

Theoretical implications

The Ministry of Education, in its “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion of Ice and Snow Sports in Schools Nationwide,” emphasizes the need to continuously enhance adolescents’ interest and willingness to participate in ice and snow sports, and to gradually form the habit of participating in these activities. Therefore, improving adolescents’ behavioral attitudes towards ice and snow sports and increasing their behavioral intentions to participate in these sports are prerequisites and key factors for the deepening of high-quality development in ice and snow sports.

First, existing studies have mainly used multivariate statistical models and factor analysis to explore the relationships between adolescents’ intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. In contrast, this study, based on multiple theoretical foundations, provides an in-depth analysis of how both internal and external factors affect adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. This offers valuable indicators and references for researchers examining the internal factors influencing participation intentions.

Second, previous studies have primarily focused on the influence of single factors on adolescents’ willingness to engage in ice and snow sports. There is limited research that considers the interaction of multiple influencing factors and explores their combined effects. This study, employing fsQCA, investigates the complex causal relationships between multiple antecedent conditions and outcome variables under the guidance of configurational thinking. This enriches the research methods and perspectives on the factors influencing adolescents’ intentions to participate in ice and snow sports.

Finally, through the discussion and analysis of the configurational paths promoting adolescents’ willingness to participate in ice and snow sports, this study clarifies how cognitive variables bridge individual behavior and participation intentions through norms, attitudes, and other mediating factors. It emphasizes individuals’ ability adaptation and the internalization of norms within different contexts, offering theoretical insights into the broader study of participation behavior intentions.

Practical implications

This study, through the fsQCA truth table algorithm, identifies five pathways that can enhance adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. These pathways provide practical references for changing both internal and external influencing factors in order to improve adolescents’ intentions to engage in these activities.

First, a joint effort by the government and schools can promote the integration of ice and snow sports into the youth education system. As a key factor influencing adolescents’ sports participation, behavioral intention must be addressed to ensure adequate time for youth sports involvement. Governments should collaborate with schools to combine ice and snow sports with educational curricula, incorporating these sports into the “double reduction” policy, which aims to reduce students’ academic burden while creating more time and space for extracurricular activities. Research shows that many middle schools have already become model schools for ice and snow sports, offering classes in skiing, ice skating, and ice hockey, and establishing school teams. Schools should integrate ice and snow sports into their physical education programs, providing the necessary time, space, and resources for students. At the policy level, governments and schools could design more incentive mechanisms, such as competition rewards and winter camps, to encourage initial participation. Additionally, environmental improvements (such as school safety facilities) could further internalize external motivations. On the educational front, physical education teachers can spark students’ interest in sports (satisfying intrinsic motivation) and promote teamwork (fulfilling the need for relatedness) to effectively increase adolescents’ willingness to engage in ice and snow sports.

Second, digital technologies should be leveraged to enrich and enhance adolescents’ ice and snow sports experiences. It is recommended to support intelligent ice and snow scene simulation and experiential layout using digital technologies. The rapid development of artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing has injected fresh energy into the advanced development of “production-education-learning-research” activities related to ice and snow sports. From an industry development perspective, diverse virtual ice and snow spaces and rich virtual experience projects can be created using virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), helping adolescents overcome psychological barriers and engage in immersive ice and snow sports experiences. From a teaching perspective, AI-based resource integration, intelligent allocation, and innovation-driven teaching models could be designed to efficiently integrate quality resources and case studies. This would allow for the intelligent design of teaching activities and practical projects, pioneering new teaching strategies and methods. From a learning perspective, intelligent technologies could be used to create personalized ice and snow sports learning, simulation, and training paths that cater to individual characteristics and prior skills, meeting diverse needs. Furthermore, through real-time monitoring of physiological features and movement posture via smart technology and cloud computing, individuals’ actions can be corrected and adjusted promptly, ensuring safety and optimal performance. From a research perspective, big data and AI can be used to analyze the process data of participants, identifying key moments that affect their mindset and helping teachers and learners understand and adjust individuals’ mental states and movements.

Lastly, cultivating ice and snow culture is crucial for strengthening adolescents’ emotional identification with ice and snow sports and enhancing their cultural value perceptions. It is recommended to use media, social platforms, and school activities to promote and reinforce the cultural values of ice and snow sports. Events such as ice and snow art exhibitions, story lectures, and film screenings can increase adolescents’ interest and understanding of these sports. Extensive ice and snow experience activities, such as the “Run, Youth” and “Winter Ice Camp” series, can help adolescents build physical strength, develop character, and improve their subjective well-being and life satisfaction. Youth-oriented industry-academia-research activities centered on ice and snow culture, such as “Ice and Snow + Research” and “Ice and Snow + N,” can immerse adolescents in the fun and charm of ice and snow sports, fostering positive cultural identification and value beliefs. By offering quality ice and snow cultural experiences, these activities satisfy adolescents’ aspirations for a better life.

Limitations and future directions

This study introduces the TPB-NAM theoretical framework into the research on adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. Using fsQCA, it explores the complex relationships among variables, presenting some innovative insights. However, there are certain limitations that need to be addressed in future research:

First, the study finds an asymmetrical causal relationship between the mechanisms of high behavioral intention and low behavioral intention in adolescent participation in ice and snow sports. Due to space limitations, this study only analyzes the configuration paths for high behavioral intention. Future research could focus on factors that inhibit behavioral intention, exploring which combinations of factors might hinder adolescents from developing the intention to participate.

Second, this study employs survey data collected from specific regions in China for empirical analysis, which limits the generalizability of the findings. The study primarily relies on survey data, which leaves some gaps in in-depth understanding of the phenomenon. Future research could incorporate grounded theory, interviews, or other multi-method approaches to gather data from a more diverse range of sources and deepen the exploration.

Third, while this study discusses the interactive effects and multiple configuration paths among antecedent variables, it does not delve deeply into the relative importance (weights) of internal and external factors influencing adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in ice and snow sports. Future research should consider the weight of both internal and external factors affecting adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in ice and snow sports and further optimize the pathways for enhancing these intentions.

Moreover, given the many factors that influence behavioral intentions, which are complex in nature, this study could not incorporate all relevant variables. For example, socioeconomic status, physical condition, and other factors have been shown to influence sports participation intentions, but they were not included in this research. In future studies, variables such as socioeconomic status and physical condition could be used as grouping conditions to further explore the differences in the configuration paths of factors influencing participation intentions across different adolescent groups. This would provide more targeted theoretical support and practical guidance for optimizing the ice and snow sports ecosystem and strengthening adolescents’ behavioral intentions to participate in these activities.