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kNDVI reveals vegetation dynamics and hydro–edaphic controls in inner Mongolia (2000–2024)
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  • Published: 14 January 2026

kNDVI reveals vegetation dynamics and hydro–edaphic controls in inner Mongolia (2000–2024)

  • Feifei Dong1,
  • Fucang Qin1,2,3,
  • Tiegang Zhang4,
  • Xiaoyu Dong1 na1,
  • Yihan Wu1 na1 &
  • …
  • Zhiwen Guo1 na1 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Climate sciences
  • Ecology
  • Environmental sciences
  • Hydrology

Abstract

Dryland vegetation underpins ecosystem services and livelihoods. Understanding the influencing factors of its dynamics is critical for effective restoration and degradation risk reduction. Most assessments still rely on unvalidated vegetation indices, assume monotonic trends over a single period, and use coarse attribution approaches that blur the respective roles of climate, soil–water conditions, and land use. This paper verifies NDVI (Normalized Vegetation Index) and kNDVI (Kernel Normalized Vegetation Index) using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) observation data. The temporal and spatial changes of vegetation in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2024 and the driving mechanisms of climate-soil-groundwater and land use were analyzed by using the sequence Mann-Kendall mutation test, the trend analysis of Theil-Sen (Theil-Sen) + MK (Mann-Kendall), and the Hurst index, pixel-wise correlations and a Geodetector model. Main findings: (1) compared with NDVI, kNDVI better identifies low-cover/poor-growth areas; (2) vegetation shows a fluctuating upward trend (slope ≈ 0.0034 yr⁻1) with a mean kNDVI of 0.255, and a northeast-to-southwest decline in greenness with peaks in Hulunbuir; (3) vegetation conditions improved over 77.29% of the region (mainly in the northeast) and degraded over 22.71% (chiefly central–eastern); Theil–Sen slope estimator combined with the Hurst exponent indicates kNDVI is likely to increase over most areas, with ~ 10.65% showing a declining tendency; (4) groundwater depth and precipitation are the principal natural drivers of interannual fluctuations, with groundwater showing the strongest association (up to r = 0.95, p < 0.01). In contrast, spatial heterogeneity is mainly shaped by soil nutrients, land use, and topography, among which total nitrogen provides the highest explanatory power (q = 0.41). Overall, the results underscore the central role of groundwater and soil conditions, calling for restoration strategies that integrate water management and land-use planning.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the earlier version of the manuscript, which helps to improve the quality of the manuscript.

Funding

This research was funded by Research on Optimisation and Regulation Techniques of Forest Stand Structure in Tengger Desert Locked Forests, grant number 2024JBGS0021-4-2.

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Author notes

  1. Xiaoyu Dong, Yihan Wu and Zhiwen Guo contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Desert Management College, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, 010018, China

    Feifei Dong, Fucang Qin, Xiaoyu Dong, Yihan Wu & Zhiwen Guo

  2. Key Laboratory of State Forest Administration for Desert Ecosystem Protection and Restoration, Hohhot, 010018, China

    Fucang Qin

  3. Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot, 010010, China

    Fucang Qin

  4. Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area, Ministry of Water Resources, Hohhot, 010020, China

    Tiegang Zhang

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Contributions

Q.F. conceived the idea and designed the study. F.D. performed the research, analyzed data and wrote the paper. T.Z. provided data support. X.D., Y.W., Z.G. contributed with literature review and results analysis. All authors discussed the results and revised the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Fucang Qin.

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Dong, F., Qin, F., Zhang, T. et al. kNDVI reveals vegetation dynamics and hydro–edaphic controls in inner Mongolia (2000–2024). Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35762-5

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  • Received: 15 October 2025

  • Accepted: 08 January 2026

  • Published: 14 January 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35762-5

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Keywords

  • kNDVI
  • Groundwater
  • Spatiotemporal dynamic
  • Trend analysis
  • Influencing factors
  • Inner mongolia
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