Table 4 Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction models baseline results dependent variable: D (Primary balance-to-GDP ratio).
From: Do institutions matter in the fiscal reaction function? The case of Egypt
Model (1) | Model (2) | Model (3) | Model (4) | Model (5) | Model (6) | Model (7) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected model | ARDL (2,1,2,0,0,0,0) | ARDL (2,1,2,0,0,0,0) | ARDL (2,1,1,0,0,0,0) | ARDL (2,1,2,0,0,0,0) | ARDL (2,1,1,0,0,0,0) | ARDL (2,1,2,0,0,0,0) | ARDL (2,2,0,2,0,2,0,1,0) |
ECTt-1 | −0.325***(−4.40) | −0.288***(−4.74) | −0.267**(−3.74) | −0.276***(−4.12) | −0.225**(−3.58) | −0.304***(−4.34) | −0.473**(−3.97) |
Long Run Coef. | |||||||
Debt | 0.00460**(3.64) | 0.00590***(4.12) | 0.00599**(3.44) | 0.00543**(3.45) | 0.00862**(2.99) | 0.00478**(3.41) | 0.00635***(5.55) |
RIR | −0.00422(−0.88) | −0.00648(−1.46) | −0.00316(−0.97) | −0.00460(−0.92) | −0.000307(−0.08) | −0.00396(−0.82) | −0.00193(−1.31) |
EX | 0.00157(0.98) | −0.000911(−0.59) | 0.00118(0.77) | 0.000103(0.06) | −0.00114(−0.46) | 0.00267(1.01) | |
CA | −0.00831(−1.72) | −0.00765(−1.47) | −0.0127*(−2.48) | −0.00872(−1.42) | −0.0138*(−2.54) | −0.00868(−1.65) | 0.000743(0.21) |
OG | 1.404**(3.05) | 1.387*(2.81) | 1.699*(2.57) | 1.514*(2.60) | 2.844*(2.50) | 1.505**(2.99) | 3.242**(4.07) |
CC | 0.00216(1.50) | −0.000451(−0.35) | |||||
GE | 0.00219* (2.15) | 0.00241** (3.56) | |||||
PS | 0.000826(0.87) | 0.00134(1.22) | |||||
RQ | −0.000483(−0.28) | 0.000255(0.37) | |||||
RL | −0.00291(-1.36) | −0.00632* (−2.88) | |||||
VA | 0.00282(1.13) | ||||||
Short Run Coef. | |||||||
D(P(−1) | −0.375*(−2.77) | −0.375**(−2.87) | −0.281(−1.89) | −0.375*(−2.57) | −0.342*(−2.69) | −0.368*(−2.66) | −0.346* (−2.20) |
D(DebT) | −0.00185***(−5.40) | −0.00167***(−5.27) | −0.00140***(−4.15) | −0.00166***(−4.59) | −0.00162***(−4.89) | −0.00172***(−5.17) | −0.00293*** (−4.99) |
D(Debt(−1)) | −0.000773 (−1.88) | ||||||
D(OG) | −0.967* (−2.65) | ||||||
D(OG(−1)) | −0.856** (−3.09) | ||||||
D(RIR) | 0.00122 (1.47) | 0.00173** (2.26) | 0.000627 (0.91) | 0.00126 (1.55) | 0.000237 (0.36) | 0.00119 (1.45) | |
D(RIR(−1) | 0.00113 (1.84) | 0.00142** (−2.86) | 0.00106 (1.79) | 0.00113 (1.81) | |||
D(RQ) | 0.00198** (3.04) | ||||||
D(GE) | 0.00199** (3.29) | ||||||
D(GE(−1)) | 0.00159** (3.33) | ||||||
Constant | −0.169*** (−6.70) | −0.189*** (−6.45) | −0.157*** (−7.11) | −0.144*** (−7.45) | −0.142*** (−7.52) | 0.158*** (−7.23) | −0.149* (−2.86) |
N | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
R-sq | 0.8953 | 0.8933 | 0.8846 | 0.8951 | 0.8915 | 0.8932 | 0.9443 |
adj. R-sq | 0.8292 | 0.8259 | 0.8211 | 0.8194 | 0.8318 | 0.8258 | 0.8727 |
