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An optimized crop–livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China

Nature Food volume 5, pages 499–512 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The contribution of crop and livestock production to the exceedance of the planetary boundary for phosphorus (P) in China is still unclear, despite the country’s well-known issues with P fertilizer overuse and P-related water pollution. Using coupled models at sub-basin scales we estimate that livestock production increased the consumption of P fertilizer fivefold and exacerbated P losses twofold from 1980 to 2017. At present, China’s crop–livestock system is responsible for exceeding what is considered a ‘just’ threshold for fertilizer P use by 30% (ranging from 17% to 68%) and a ‘safe’ water quality threshold by 45% (ranging from 31% to 74%) in 25 sub-basins in China. Improving the crop–livestock system will keep all sub-basins within safe water quality and just multigenerational limits for P in 2050.

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Fig. 1: Illustration of P flow in the crop–livestock production system and its affect on a safe and just PPB.
Fig. 2: Changes in P flows for the crop–livestock system from 1980 to 2017 and scenarios in 2050.
Fig. 3: Changes and impacts of policies related to crop and livestock production since 1980.
Fig. 4: Exceedance of a just planetary boundary and flows of P fertilizer use.
Fig. 5: Exceedance of a safe planetary boundary for water quality and the distribution of P losses.
Fig. 6: Contributions of improvements in livestock production to ensure P remains within the PPB at sub-basin scales.

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Data availability

Records of fertilizer P application and production of livestock are from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Data for crop feed imports are from FAOSTAT. Population data (global and Chinese) are from the United Nations. Data for discharge losses of livestock manure are from China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Major parameters related to the P content of feed crops and livestock production, P recommendations for livestock feed, P losses of different crop–livestock systems and PPBs were collected from the literature cited in the manuscript. Source data are provided with this paper.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers U20A2047, T2222016 and 32102496), the Key R&D Program of Hebei, China (grant number 21327507D) and the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (grant number D2022503014).

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Ling Liu, Zhaohai Bai.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China

    Ling Liu, Zhaohai Bai, Jing Yang & Lin Ma

  2. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

    Zengwei Yuan & Lin Ma

  3. Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

    Zengwei Yuan

  4. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China

    Fei Lun

  5. Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

    Mengru Wang, Maryna Strokal & Carolien Kroeze

  6. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing, PR China

    Zhenling Cui

  7. Interdisciplinary Research Center for Agriculture Green Development in Yangtze River Basin, College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China

    Xinping Chen & Lin Ma

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Contributions

L.M. and Z.B. conceived the study. L.L. conducted the modelling and wrote and revised the first draft. Z.B. wrote and revised the manuscript. J.Y. conducted the water pollution modelling. Z.Y., F.L., Z.C. and X.C. participated in the result discussions. M.W., M.S. and C.K. provided support for data collection and processing.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Zhaohai Bai or Lin Ma.

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Nature Food thanks Shanying Hu, Yadong Yu and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 P budget of crop-livestock production system.

P flow in kg of P output as product (a), protein (c) and standard livestock unit (e) in 1980. P flow in kg of P output as product (b), protein (d) and standard livestock unit (f) in 2017.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 2 Phosphorus input, output and losses in the crop-livestock production system from 1980 to 2017 and under different scenarios in 2050 (S0-S4).

a, P input; b, livestock product P output; c, environmental losses.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 3 Changes of crop-livestock production structure from 1980 to 2017 in China.

a, crop-livestock production systems; b, livestock categories.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 4 Phosphorus input, losses per livestock product in different systems and animal categories in 1980 and 2017.

a-c, Changes of total P input (a), “new” P input (b), and P losses (c) per livestock product in different crop-livestock production systems. d-f, Changes of total P input (d), “new” P input (e), P losses (f) per livestock product in different crop-livestock production systems. In Extended Data Fig. 4d, the y axis is broken from 18.8 to 56.3; In Extended Data Fig. 4e, the y axis is broken from 10.0 to 12.3; In Extended Data Fig. 4f, the y axis is broken from 6.0 to 48.8.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 5 Factors affected phosphorus exceeding its planetary boundary.

a-c, Relationship of excedace of just fertilizer P use between fertilizer P use for crop feed (a), fertilizer P use for other crop (b), GDP per capital (c) at sub-basin scale between 1980 and 2017. d-f, Relationship of excedace of safe water quality between livestock manure P loss (d), urbanization rate (e), water discharge per capita (f) at sub-basin scale between 1980 and 2017.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 6 Overview of steps to optimize crop-livestock P management to ensure that P remain within the PPB.

The icons of animal/crop/people/building icons were obtained from Office material library.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Total P budget of crop-livestock system.

a, Business as usual; b, Combined scenario in 2050. Unit: Gg P.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 8 Contribution of improvements in livestock production to ensure P within loose planetary boundary.

a–c, Contribution of S1 (a),S2 (b) and S3 (c) in livestock production to ensure P within loose just fertilizer P use boundary; d-f, Contribution of S1 (d),S2 (e) and S3 (f) in livestock production to ensure P within loose safe water quality threshold. S1, improved feed P management; S2, improved manure management; S3, improved herb and structure management.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 9 Contribution of improvements in livestock production to ensure P within strict planetary boundary.

a–e, Contribution of S0 (a),S1 (b),S2 (c), S3 (d) and S4 (e) in livestock production to ensure P within strict just fertilizer P use boundary; f-j, Contribution of S0 (f),S1 (g),S2 (h), S3 (i) and S4 (j) in livestock production to ensure P within strict safe water quality threshold. S0, business as usual; S1, improved feed P management; S2, improved manure management; S3, improved herb and structure management. S4, the scenario that combination of improved feed, manure and structure management.

Source data

Extended Data Table 1 he rate of crop-livestock contributed to P flow excess PPB for just fertilizer P use (PPBF) and safe water quality (PPBW)
Full size table

Supplementary information

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Supplementary Figs. 1–5, Tables 1–19, Methods and references.

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Liu, L., Bai, Z., Yang, J. et al. An optimized crop–livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China. Nat Food 5, 499–512 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-00977-0

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