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Agricultural machinery could contribute 20% of total carbon and air pollutant emissions by 2050 and compromise carbon neutrality targets in China

Nature Food volume 6, pages 513–522 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Agricultural mechanization has benefitted food security in China, but carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions from fuel combustion are often overlooked. Here we show that emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from agricultural machinery increased nearly sevenfold and four- to sevenfold, respectively, during 1985–2020, driven largely by rapid advancement in the mechanization level. If unabated, annual emissions of CO2, PM2.5 and NOx from agricultural machinery in 2050 could reach 213.6 Mt, 55.4 Gg and 902.8 Gg, contributing ~21%, ~4% and ~17% of China’s total emissions under a dual-carbon goal scenario, respectively. However, adoption of renewable energy sources could mitigate 65–70% of these emissions. Our study highlights that China’s agricultural machinery could become a large source of emissions that—without mitigation—may hinder China’s carbon neutrality targets and degrade air quality.

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Fig. 1: Trends and drivers of CO2 and air pollutants emissions from agricultural machinery from 1985 to 2020.
Fig. 2: Province-level patterns of CO2 and air pollutants emissions from agricultural machinery in 2020.
Fig. 3: Provincial-level CO2 and air pollutants emissions for specific machinery types, and cropland area-based emission intensity in 2020.
Fig. 4: Potential for synergistic reduction of CO2 and air pollutants from agricultural machinery through energy transition.

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Data availability

This study utilized publicly available data from statistical yearbooks and existing literature. Provincial data (1985–2020) on agricultural machinery quantity and power were sourced from the China Statistical Yearbook (https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/publish.htm?sort=1). Load factors and air pollutant emission factors were obtained from the Technical Guidelines for Compiling Emission Inventories of Non-Road Mobile Sources (https://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bgth/201407/W020140708387895377980.pdf). Fuel properties (lower heating value, carbon content and oxidation factor) were extracted from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook (https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/). Annual working hours for various machinery types were based on Dai et al.69. Provincial population, primary industry employment and cultivated land area data (1985–2020) were compiled from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Statistical Compilation of Sixty Years of New China (https://cnki.nbsti.net/CSYDMirror/trade/yearbook/Single/N2010042091?z=Z030). Source data are provided with this paper.

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Acknowledgements

This project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 72174197, 72025401, 32171564 and 52370193), the National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2022YFD1901600), Carbon Neutrality and Energy System Transformation (CNEST) Program led by Tsinghua University, and the 2115 Talent Development Program of China Agricultural University.

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Minghao Zhuang, Xu Wang.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Nutrient Use and Management, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Key Laboratory of Plant–Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China

    Minghao Zhuang, Xu Wang & Yifei Wu

  2. National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China

    Minghao Zhuang, Xu Wang & Yifei Wu

  3. Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region’s Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China

    Yi Yang

  4. State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

    Ligang Wang

  5. State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Xi Lu

  6. Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Xi Lu

  7. Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Xi Lu

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Contributions

M.Z. conceived the study. M.Z., X.W., L.W. and X.L. designed the detailed process of research. M.Z. and X.W. carried them out and contributed to the analysis of data. X.W. conducted the data collection. X.L., L.W., Y.Y. and Y.W. contributed to the interpretation of results. M.Z. and X.W. prepared the paper with contributions from all co-authors. All authors revised the paper.

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Correspondence to Minghao Zhuang, Yi Yang, Ligang Wang or Xi Lu.

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Zhuang, M., Wang, X., Yang, Y. et al. Agricultural machinery could contribute 20% of total carbon and air pollutant emissions by 2050 and compromise carbon neutrality targets in China. Nat Food 6, 513–522 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01163-6

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