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  • Review Article
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Crop pest responses to global changes in climate and land management

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 6, pages 264–283 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

The prevalence of crop insect pests, which damage crops and reduce their yield, is increasing globally owing to changes in climate and land use, posing a threat to food security. In this Review, we synthesize evidence on how tropical, temperate, migratory and soil crop pests respond to changes in climate, land use and agricultural practices. In general, crop pests are responding to warming with expanded geographic ranges, advanced phenological events and increased number of reproductive generations per year. Increased pest damage under warming is projected to exacerbate yield losses of 46%, 19% and 31% under 2 °C warming for wheat, rice and maize, respectively. Pests at mid–high latitudes respond more positively to warming than those in the tropics. Moderate drought can increase pest damage to crops owing to enhanced feeding on plants as a water source and decreased resilience of plants and natural enemies of pests. Increased precipitation reduces small pests through washing them away, but favours pests in general through buffering thermal-hydro stresses. Land use change, such as deforestation and conversion to cropland, enhances warming and reduces biodiversity, leading to enhanced crop damage. Agricultural intensification, particularly fertilization and irrigation, increases the quality and quantity of host plants and buffers pests from environmental extremes, favouring proliferation. Globalization of trade networks increases pest invasions, with associated damage exceeding US $423 billion in 2019. Future research should examine the mechanisms underlying changes in pest status and develop monitoring and prediction systems to inform management approaches.

Key points

  • Climate warming and associated increasing extreme heat events are shifting tropical and temperate pest risks towards higher latitudes and elevations. Warming and heatwaves are extending the pest damage season, delaying pest diapause onset in warm temperate regions but disrupting diapause and weakening cold tolerance in cool temperate regions.

  • Migratory pests adapt well to global change owing to their high stress tolerances and their migratory behaviour allowing them to track suitable host plants and climate. Soil pests thrive worldwide as soil buffers them from exposure to extreme climates, toxic chemicals and natural predators, and pests can locate optimal thermal and moisture conditions through vertical movement within the soil profile.

  • Agricultural practices, such as irrigation and fertilization, provide pests with optimal host plant conditions, buffer climate stresses and reduce natural biological control through reduced biodiversity, whereas Bt-crop adoption curtails pest population. Land use changes, such as deforestation and cropland expansion, proliferate pests by modifying local climates, creating favourable conditions for pests and disrupting natural enemies, whereas landscape diversification promotes natural pest control.

  • Key pests impacting crops are aphids for wheat and soybean, planthoppers and stem borers for rice, and corn borers, noctuid caterpillars and locusts for maize. Warming promotes wheat pest abundance in the spring, moves rice pest damage from the subtropics to temperate regions and favours maize and soybean pests.

  • Yield losses to crop pests and pesticide use are increasing. However, pests could also decline in the future due to climate extremes, genetically modified crops and climate-smart pesticide applications.

  • Sustainable pest management can be achieved through increasing landscape and biological diversity, developing conservation biological control strategies. Increasing natural enemy biodiversity can help naturally control pest populations and reduce reliance on pesticides.

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Fig. 1: Impact of global change drivers on crop pests and agricultural productivity.
Fig. 2: Global changes in climate, land use and agricultural practices.
Fig. 3: Impact of environmental change on key crop pests.
Fig. 4: Response of four crop pest categories to global change across four global regions.
Fig. 5: Impact of warming on crop pests.
Fig. 6: Response of wheat, rice, maize and soybean pests to warming.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Y.-C. Xu, D.-X. Li, H.-C. Chang, W.-J. Kong, X. Wen, L. Zhu and J. S. Terblanche for their support during the writing process. The authors also thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32330090, 32471597, 32401314), National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFD1400400, 2023YFD1401400), Hebei Natural Science Foundation (C2022201042), Chinese Agrosystem Long-Term Observation Network (CALTON-SWZH), Fundamental Research Funds of CAAS (Y2024JC02), IRP “GRADIENTS” project from CNRS, and USDA/NRCS (award no. NR233A750004G038) for financial support.

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Bing-Xin Wang, Xue-Jing Wang, Qing-Cai Lin, Gang Ma.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change Biology Research Group, School of Life Science, Hebei University, Baoding, China

    Chun-Sen Ma, Bing-Xin Wang, Xue-Jing Wang, Qing-Cai Lin & Xue-Fang Yang

  2. Climate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

    Bing-Xin Wang, Xue-Jing Wang, Qing-Cai Lin, Wei Zhang & Gang Ma

  3. UMR 6553 ECOBIO, Université de Rennes UNIR, Rennes, France

    Joan van Baaren

  4. Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Daniel P. Bebber

  5. Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology and Nematology, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA

    Sanford D. Eigenbrode

  6. School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Myron P. Zalucki

  7. Shandong Engineering Research Center for Environment-Friendly Agricultural Pest Management, College of Plant Health and Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, China

    Myron P. Zalucki

  8. Pest and Disease Monitoring and Forecasting Division, National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center, Beijing, China

    Juan Zeng

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Contributions

C.-S.M. led the review, conceptualized, wrote the main text, prepared displays (Table 1 and Fig. 1) and compiled the paper. G.M., B.-X.W., X.-J.W., Q.-C.L. and C.-S.M. collected the literature, wrote the draft text and Supplementary Information, and prepared Figs. 2–6. W.Z., X.-F.Y., J.v.B., M.P.Z, D.P.B., S.D.E. and J.Z. contributed to content discussion and writing. All authors contributed to the manuscript preparation, discussion and writing before submission.

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Correspondence to Bing-Xin Wang, Xue-Jing Wang, Qing-Cai Lin or Gang Ma.

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AgbioInvestor: https://gm.agbioinvestor.com/downloads

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FAOSTAT1: http://www.fao.org/faostat/es/#data/QC/visualize

FAOSTAT2: https://data.apps.fao.org/catalog/dataset/pesticides-indicators-national-global-annual-faostat

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Ma, CS., Wang, BX., Wang, XJ. et al. Crop pest responses to global changes in climate and land management. Nat Rev Earth Environ 6, 264–283 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00652-3

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