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  • Review Article
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Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 6, pages 456–470 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Numerous weather and climate extremes have broken long-standing observed records. These record-breaking (or record-shattering if the margin is large) events have substantial socioeconomic impacts and pose adaptation and planning challenges. In this Review, we assess observed and projected changes in record-breaking climate extremes. Record occurrence can be understood with statistical considerations, and their changes quantified as the record ratio — the observed frequency of record events relative to a stationary climate. Many climate variables have witnessed changes in their record-breaking frequency. For example, all-time daily hot records on land are more than four times higher in 2016–2024 than expected without climate change, and all-time cold records two times lower; similarly, daily maximum precipitation records and monthly dryness records are more than 40% and 10% higher, respectively. In the future, slowing the rate of warming reduces record ratios, highlighting the benefits of mitigation. For instance, by the end of the century, multimodel mean record hot events are projected to be 15.7 more likely than in a stationary climate under SSP3-7.0, but only ~2.9 and ~1.8 more likely for SSP1-2.6 and SSP1-1.9, respectively, lower than those observed today. New record cold will become virtually non-existent under all emission scenarios. Among others, records have also been broken for ice loss, sea ice and ocean heat content, but quantifying record statistics is challenged by data availability, duration and quality. Addressing these data challenges and developing statistical methods to account for multivariate records are research priorities.

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Fig. 1: Example record-shattering hot extremes.
Fig. 2: Statistical characteristics of record extremes.
Fig. 3: Observed change in record hot and cold.
Fig. 4: Projected changes in record hot and cold.
Fig. 5: Observed and projected change in record heavy precipitation and dryness over land.
Fig. 6: Evolution of hourly precipitation in the UK.
Fig. 7: Observed changes in Arctic sea ice extent and records.

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Acknowledgements

E.M.F. and S.S. gratefully acknowledge funding from the EU Horizon 2020 Project XAIDA (grant agreement 101003469). M.B. and this project have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant agreement No. 101027577. R.H. was supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Office of Sponsored Research (OSR) under Award No. OSR-CRG2020-4394 and by his baseline research funds. E.J.K. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. S.S. acknowledges the climXtreme project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Phase 2, project PATTETA, Grant No. 01LP2323C) and the project ‘Artificial intelligence for enhanced representation of processes and extremes in Earth system models’ (AI4PEX; Grant agreement No. 101137682, funded by the EU’s Horizon Europe programme). A.R. received funding from the European Union (ERC, FORCLIMA, 101044247).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Erich M. Fischer

  2. CECI CNRS/Cerfacs, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France

    Margot Bador

  3. CEMSE Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia

    Raphaël Huser

  4. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    Elizabeth J. Kendon

  5. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

    Elizabeth J. Kendon

  6. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Alexander Robinson

  7. Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany

    Sebastian Sippel

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Fischer, E.M., Bador, M., Huser, R. et al. Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate. Nat Rev Earth Environ 6, 456–470 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00681-y

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