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  • Review Article
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Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) profoundly affects Australian weather, climate, ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. In this Review, we summarize the advances in understanding the ENSO–Australian climate relationship, detailing the complexity beyond the traditional assumptions of El Niño-dry and La Niña-wet patterns, including mechanisms and impacts. The influence of ENSO is most coherent during austral spring, explaining about a quarter of rainfall variability over large parts of eastern Australia. La Niña typically exerts more robust rainfall changes than El Niño, and the Central Pacific El Niño has greater impacts than Eastern Pacific events. These effects are amplified by prolonged ENSO episodes and modulated by land–atmosphere feedback, surrounding sea surface temperatures, local processes and interactions with other climate modes, including multidecadal variability. El Niño-related drying generally worsens when co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whereas La Niña rainfall intensifies with negative IOD and/or positive SAM. Although ENSO predictability has improved with advanced understanding of ocean processes and dynamical forecasting, predicting its impacts is challenging because of large internal atmospheric variability. Ongoing changes in ENSO underscore the need for strategic research, continuous in situ monitoring, reduced model biases and deeper understanding of the anthropogenically induced changes in Pacific temperatures to guide adaptation strategies.

Key points

  • El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the foremost climatic phenomenon impacting eastern Australia in terms of intensity and spatial coverage.

  • ENSO impacts large-scale atmospheric circulation to Australia directly via changes in sea level pressure related to the Southern Oscillation and indirectly through changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and associated wave trains to the Australian extra-tropics.

  • Local processes driven by the surrounding sea surface temperatures and winds crucially alter evaporation, humidity and moisture advection inland, modulating rainfall patterns during ENSO events.

  • The ENSO–Australian rainfall relationship is asymmetric and stronger for La Niña. This relationship varies over multidecadal cycles, peaking during the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation negative phase.

  • The influence of ENSO on Australian rainfall usually intensifies during multi-year events and is often modulated by other climate variability such as Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and Madden–Julian Oscillation.

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Fig. 1: Australian climate response to ENSO.
Fig. 2: El Niño teleconnections.
Fig. 3: Australian seasonal precipitation and maximum temperature responses to ENSO diversity.
Fig. 4: Complexity of ENSO-related responses to Australian climate.
Fig. 5: Impacts of ENSO.
Fig. 6: Projected changes in ENSO teleconnections to Australian precipitation and temperature.

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Acknowledgements

A.S.T., Z.E.G., R.L., L.A., D.D., N.A., A.G., T.L.D., J.G., S.P.-K., N.H., H.H., C.H., S.P., C.C.U. and C.C. thank the Australian Research Council (ARC) CE170100023 for support. A.S.T., S.McG., P.H., A.P., A.K., S.C., H.H., G.B., C.C., P.v.R. and Z.E.G. acknowledge funding from the Climate Systems Hub of the National Environmental Science Program. A.P., G.B., E.-P.L., S.S. and R.McK. received funding from the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action through the Victorian Water and Climate Initiative. T.C. is supported by the Northern Australian Climate Program (NACP) (P.PSH.1381). T.L.D. acknowledges the Melbourne Research Scholarship and the Rowden White Scholarship. J.G. was funded by the Australian National University’s Futures Scheme Project ‘Using historical weather extremes to improve future climate change risk assessment’. D.D., P.v.R. and S.McG. acknowledge funding from ARC DP200102329. K.A. acknowledges funding from ARC FT200100102. The authors thank C. Ganter and R. Naha for constructive comments, and the three reviewers who helped improve this Review.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Scott Power

    Present address: Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

  2. These authors contributed equally: Andréa S. Taschetto, Shayne McGregor.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Andréa S. Taschetto, Agus Santoso & Caroline C. Ummenhofer

  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Andréa S. Taschetto, Zoe E. Gillett, Agus Santoso & Caroline C. Ummenhofer

  3. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Andréa S. Taschetto

  4. School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Shayne McGregor, Dietmar Dommenget, Neville Nicholls, Peter van Rensch, Ailie Gallant & Scott Power

  5. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Shayne McGregor & Ailie Gallant

  6. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Dietmar Dommenget & Ailie Gallant

  7. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Zoe E. Gillett, Sur Sharmila, Ghyslaine Boschat, Christine Chung, Tim Cowan, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Pandora Hope, Eun-Pa Lim, John L. McBride, Roseanna C. McKay & Hanh Nguyen

  8. School of Environmental and Life Sciences, College of Engineering, Science and the Environment, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

    Danielle Verdon-Kidd

  9. Centre for Water Security and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

    Danielle Verdon-Kidd

  10. School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Ruby Lieber, Linden Ashcroft, Josephine R. Brown, Thi Lan Dao, Mandy B. Freund, Joelle Gergis, Hanna Heidemann, Andrew King & John L. McBride

  11. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Ruby Lieber, Linden Ashcroft, Thi Lan Dao & Hanna Heidemann

  12. Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram & Chiara Holgate

  13. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram & Chiara Holgate

  14. Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram

  15. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie Abram & Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

  16. Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development (IERSD), National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Rob Allan

  17. School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Kathryn Allen

  18. School of Agriculture, Food, and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Kathryn Allen

  19. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Josephine R. Brown, Mandy B. Freund & Andrew King

  20. Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Wenju Cai

  21. Division of Ocean System and Interdisciplinary Science, Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

    Wenju Cai

  22. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

    Wenju Cai

  23. Institute of Innovation, Science and Sustainability, Federation University, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia

    Savin Chand

  24. Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

    Tim Cowan & Hanna Heidemann

  25. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Neil J. Holbrook

  26. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Neil J. Holbrook

  27. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Neil J. Holbrook

  28. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Acacia Pepler

  29. Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

  30. Climate Services International, Oakleigh, Victoria, Australia

    Scott Power

  31. CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    James S. Risbey, Guojian Wang & Xuebin Zhang

  32. International CLIVAR Project Office, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Agus Santoso

  33. Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

    Caroline C. Ummenhofer

Authors
  1. Andréa S. Taschetto
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  2. Shayne McGregor
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  3. Dietmar Dommenget
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  4. Zoe E. Gillett
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  5. Neville Nicholls
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  6. Sur Sharmila
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  7. Peter van Rensch
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  8. Danielle Verdon-Kidd
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  9. Ghyslaine Boschat
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  10. Christine Chung
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  11. Ruby Lieber
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  12. Nerilie Abram
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  13. Rob Allan
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  14. Kathryn Allen
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  15. Linden Ashcroft
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  16. Josephine R. Brown
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  17. Wenju Cai
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  18. Savin Chand
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  19. Tim Cowan
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  20. Thi Lan Dao
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  21. Catherine de Burgh-Day
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  22. Mandy B. Freund
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  23. Ailie Gallant
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  25. Neil J. Holbrook
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  26. Hanna Heidemann
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  28. Pandora Hope
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  29. Andrew King
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  30. Eun-Pa Lim
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  31. John L. McBride
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  32. Roseanna C. McKay
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  33. Hanh Nguyen
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  34. Acacia Pepler
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  35. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
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  36. Scott Power
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  37. James S. Risbey
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  38. Agus Santoso
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  39. Caroline C. Ummenhofer
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  40. Guojian Wang
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  41. Xuebin Zhang
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Contributions

A.S.T. and S.McG. coordinated and led the writing of the manuscript. The study was conceived after a breakout session titled ‘40 Years of ENSO in Australia since McBride and Nicholls (1983)’, held during the 2022 Annual Workshop of the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX); the breakout session was proposed by A.G. and convened by A.S.T. and S.McG. A subsequent in-person workshop in 2023, supported by CLEX, brought together several co-authors who collaboratively drafted sections of the manuscript as follows: Introduction (N.N., J.McB, L.A., P.H., A.G., and A.S.T.); Dynamics (Z.E.G., W.C. and A.S.T, with contributions from G.W. and A.S.); Complexity (P.v.R., D.D. and S.McG, with input from C.C., G.B., H.H. and R.McK.); ENSO asymmetry (S.P.); Temporal complexity (H.H. and S.P.); Protracted ENSO events (J.G. and R.A.); ENSO–MJO interactions (T.L.D.); ENSO–SAM interactions (E.-P.L.); ENSO–IOD interactions (R.McK.); Terrestrial heatwaves and temperature extremes (S.P.-K.); Rainfall extremes (A.K.); Impacts and hydrology (D.V.-K. and K.A., with contributions from C.H., C.C.U., H.N. and A.S.T. on droughts and floods); Extra-tropical weather systems (A.P. and J.R.); Tropical cyclones (S.C.); South Pacific Convergence Zone (J.R.B.); Bushfires (N.A.); Land processes (S.S.); Agriculture (A.S.T.); Ocean extremes (N.H.); Sea level (X.Z.); Health and economic impacts (N.N.); Observed changes and future projections (D.D., with contributions from S.P., R.L. and S.McG.); Prediction (S.S., T.C., N.N., C.B.-D., E.-P.L. and J.R.); Pre-twentieth century climate and ENSO palaeo-reconstruction (M.F., J.R.B., L.A., J.G. and K.A.); Summary and future perspectives (A.S.T. and S.McG. with contribution from N.N., J.McB., S.P., P.H., A.G., R.A., J.G., L.A. and W.C.). A.S.T. created Figs. 1, 2 and 5; C.C. created Fig. 3; G.B. created Fig. 4; and R.L. created Fig. 6. A.S.T. and S.McG. synthesized all contributions, restructured, edited and shortened the text to ensure a coherent narrative. All authors contributed to the manuscript’s structure, ideas of analysis, figure presentations, discussion and revision.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Andréa S. Taschetto or Shayne McGregor.

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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks Bin Wang, Paloma Trascasa-Castro and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Taschetto, A.S., McGregor, S., Dommenget, D. et al. Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia. Nat Rev Earth Environ (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00747-x

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