Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Perspective
  • Published:

Why Gilgamesh failed: the mechanistic basis of the limits to human lifespan

Abstract

The purpose of this Perspective is to clarify for an interdisciplinary audience the fundamental concepts of human longevity and provide evidence for a limit to human lifespan. This observed limit is placed into a broader framework by showing how it has arisen through the process of evolution and by enumerating the molecular mechanisms that may enforce it. Finally, we look toward potential future developments and the prospects for possibly circumventing the current limit.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Two examples of the generalized extreme value function.
Fig. 2: Possible mortality trajectories.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Dalley, D. Myths from Mesopotamia (Oxford Univ. Press, 2009).

  2. Bible Gateway. Genesis 6:3 NRSV. https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis+6%3A3&version=NRSV

  3. Goldsmith, T. C. Evolvability, population benefit, and the evolution of programmed aging in mammals. Biochemistry 82, 1423–1429 (2017).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Longo, V. D., Mitteldorf, J. & Skulachev, V. P. Programmed and altruistic ageing. Nat. Rev. Genet. 6, 866–872 (2005).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Weismann, A. Essays Upon Heredity and Kindred Biological Problems. Available at https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/48132/pg48132-images.html.utf8 (1889).

  6. Kirkwood, T. B. L. & Cremer, T. Cytogerontology since 1881: a reappraisal of August Weismann and a review of modern progress. Hum. Genet. 60, 101–121 (1982).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Finch, C. E. Evolution of the human lifespan and diseases of aging: roles of infection, inflammation, and nutrition. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 1718–1724 (2010).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Vijg, J. & Kennedy, B. K. The essence of aging. Gerontology 62, 381–385 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. Kowald, A. & Kirkwood, T. B. L. Can aging be programmed? A critical literature review. Aging Cell 15, 986–998 (2016).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  10. Ismail, K. et al. Compression of morbidity is observed across cohorts with exceptional longevity. J. Am. Geriatr. Soc. 64, 1583–1591 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  11. Fleur, N. S., Williams, C. & Wood, C. Can we live to 200? Here’s a roadmap. The New York Times (27 April 2021).

  12. Rootzén, H. & Zholud, D. Human life is unlimited—but short. Extremes 20, 713–728 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Belzile, L. R., Davison, A. C., Rootz‚n, H. & Zholud, D. Human mortality at extreme age. R. Soc. Open Sci. 8, 202097 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  14. Gbari, S., Poulain, M., Dal, L. & Denuit, M. Extreme value analysis of mortality at the oldest ages: a case study based on individual ages at death. N. Am. Actuar. J. 21, 397–416 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Einmahl, J. J., Einmahl, J. H. J. & de Haan, L. Limits to human life span through extreme value theory. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 114, 1075–1080 (2019).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Feifel, J., Genz, M. & Pauly, M. The myth of immortality: an analysis of the maximum lifespan of US females. https://www.ifa-ulm.de/fileadmin/user_upload/download/forschung/2018_ifa_Feifel-etal_The-Myth-of-Immortality-An_Analysis-of-the-Maximum-Lifespan-of-US-Females.pdf (2018).

  17. Ferreira, A. & Huang, F. Is human life limited or unlimited? (A discussion of the paper by Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud). Extremes 21, 373–382 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Milholland, B., Dong, X. & Vijg, J. The shortness of human life constitutes its limit. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1803.04024 (2018).

  19. Beltrán-Sánchez, H., Austad, S. N. & Finch, C. E. Comment on ‘The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers’. Science 361, eaav1200 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Olshansky, S. J. & Carnes, B. A. Inconvenient truths about human longevity. J. Gerontol. A. Biol. Sci. Med. Sci. 74, S7–S12 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Antero-Jacquemin, J. et al. Learning from leaders: lifespan trends in olympians and supercentenarians. J. Gerontol. A. Biol. Sci. Med. Sci. 70, 944–949 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Fleming, N. Scientists up stakes in bet on whether humans will live to 150. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2016.20818 (2016).

  23. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 538, 257–259 (2016).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  24. Holden, C. A long-lived bet. Science https://doi.org/10.1126/article.36961 (2001).

  25. Gompertz, B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. In a letter to Francis Baily, Esq. F. R. S. &c. By Benjamin Gompertz, Esq. F. R. S. Abstract paper. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 2, 252–253 (1833).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Olshansky, S. J. & Carnes, B. A. Ever since Gompertz. Demography 34, 1–15 (1997).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  27. Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, M., Vaupel, J. W. & Wachter, K. W. The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers. Science 360, 1459–1461 (2018).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  28. Cabreros, I. A new study argues you might be able to live forever. You still can’t. slate.com, https://slate.com/technology/2018/07/a-new-study-argues-you-might-be-able-to-live-forever-you-still-cant.html (2018).

  29. Newman, S. Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus. PLoS Biol. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2006776 (2018).

  30. Newman, S. J. Plane inclinations: a critique of hypothesis and model choice in Barbi et al. PLoS Biol. 16, e3000048 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  31. Gavrilov, L. A. & Gavrilova, N. S. Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors. PLoS Biol. 17, e3000148 (2019).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  32. Gavrilov, L. A. & Gavrilova, N. S. New trend in old-age mortality: Gompertzialization of mortality trajectory. Gerontology 65, 451–457 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  33. Huang, F., Maller, R. & Ning, X. Modelling life tables with advanced ages: an extreme value theory approach—ScienceDirect. Insur. Math. Econ. 93, 95–115 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Huang, F., Maller, R., Milholland, B. & Ning, X. A mixture model incorporating individual heterogeneity in human lifetimes. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.29.428902v1 (2021).

  35. Gerontology Research Group. Table C—World’s Oldest Person (WOP) Titleholders Since 1955 https://gerontology.fandom.com/wiki/World%27s_Oldest_Person_titleholders (2019).

  36. Cardona, C. & Bishai, D. The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950. BMC Public Health 18, 151 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  37. Raleigh, V. S. Trends in Life Expectancy in EU and other OECD Countries: Why are Improvements Slowing? https://doi.org/10.1787/223159ab-en (2019).

  38. Harper, S., Riddell, C. A. & King, N. B. Declining life expectancy in the United States: missing the trees for the forest. Annu. Rev. Public Health 42, 381–403 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  39. Modig, K., Andersson, T., Vaupel, J., Rau, R. & Ahlbom, A. How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan. J. Intern. Med. 282, 156–163 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  40. Blagosklonny, M. V. Aging is not programmed. Cell Cycle 12, 3736–3742 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  41. Gladyshev, V. N. The origin of aging: imperfectness-driven non-random damage defines the aging process and control of lifespan. Trends Genet. 29, 506–512 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  42. Galor, O. & Moav, O. Natural selection and the evolution of life expectancy. SSRN Electron. J. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.563741 (2005).

  43. Morris, I. Economic growth in Ancient Greece. J. Institutional Theor. Econ. 160, 709–742 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Roser, M., Ortiz-Ospina, E. & Ritchie, H. Life expectancy. https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy (2013).

  45. Jones, D. S., Podolsky, S. H. & Greene, J. A. The burden of disease and the changing task of medicine. N. Engl. J. Med. 366, 2333–2338 (2012).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  46. Brosco, J. P. The early history of the infant mortality rate in America. Pediatrics 103, 478–485 (1999).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  47. Roser, M. Mortality in the past—around half died as children https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past (2019).

  48. Beltrán-Sánchez, H., Soneji, S. & Crimmins, E. M. Past, present and future of healthy life expectancy. Cold Spring Harb. Perspect. Med. 5, a025957 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  49. Olshansky, S. J. Measuring our narrow strip of life. Nature 538, 175–176 (2016).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  50. Brown, N. J. L., Albers, C. J. & Ritchie, S. J. Contesting the evidence for limited human lifespan. Nature 546, E6–E7 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  51. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E7 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  52. Hughes, B. G. & Hekimi, S. Many possible maximum lifespan trajectories. Nature 546, E8–E9 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  53. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E9–E10 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  54. Lenart, A. & Vaupel, J. W. Questionable evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 546, E13–E14 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  55. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E12 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  56. Rozing, M. P., Kirkwood, T. B. L. & Westendorp, R. G. J. Is there evidence for a limit to human lifespan? Nature 546, E11–E12 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  57. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E14–E15 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  58. de Beer, J., Bardoutsos, A. & Janssen, F. Maximum human lifespan may increase to 125 years. Nature 546, E16–E17 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  59. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E21 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  60. Dolgin, E. There’s no limit to longevity, says study that revives human lifespan debate. Nature 559, 14–15 (2018).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  61. The limits to human lifespan must be respected. Nature 538, 6 (2016).

  62. Geddes, L. Human age limit claim sparks debate. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2016.20750 (2016).

  63. Eisenstein, M. Does the human lifespan have a limit? Nature 601, S2–S4 (2022).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  64. Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Reply to Kashnitsky. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2890500 (2016).

  65. Milholland, B., Dong, X. & Vijg, J. ‘Best-guess’ MRAD provides robust evidence for a limit to human lifespan: reply to de Grey (Rejuvenation Res. 20, 261–262 (2017)). Rejuvenation Res. 20, 437–440 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  66. Milholland, B. Jeanne Calment, actuarial paradoxography and the limit to human lifespan. Rejuvenation Res. 23, 17–18 (2020).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  67. Williams, G. C. Pleiotropy, natural selection, and the evolution of senescence. Evolution 11, 398–411 (1957).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Le Bourg, E. Evolutionary theories of aging can explain why we age. Interdiscip. Top. Gerontol. 39, 8–23 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  69. Kowald, A. & Kirkwood, T. B. L. Evolutionary significance of ageing in the wild. Exp. Gerontol. 71, 89–94 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  70. Austad, S. N. Retarded senescence in an insular population of Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana). J. Zool. 229, 695–708 (1993).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Sandars, N. The Epic of Gilgamesh (Penguin, 1973).

  72. Kenyon, C., Chang, J., Gensch, E., Rudner, A. & Tabtiang, R. A C. elegans mutant that lives twice as long as wild type. Nature 366, 461–464 (1993).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  73. Kimura, K. D., Tissenbaum, H. A., Liu, Y. & Ruvkun, G. daf-2, an insulin receptor-like gene that regulates longevity and diapause in Caenorhabditis elegans. Science 277, 942–946 (1997).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  74. Fontana, L., Partridge, L. & Longo, V. D. Extending healthy life span—from yeast to humans. Science 328, 321–326 (2010).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  75. Kennedy, B. K. et al. Geroscience: linking aging to chronic disease. Cell 159, 709–713 (2014).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  76. Olshansky, S. J., Perry, D., Miller, R. A. & Butler, R. N. In pursuit of the longevity dividend: what should we be doing to prepare for the unprecedented aging of humanity? Scientist 20, 28–37 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  77. DeVito, L. M. et al. Extending human healthspan and longevity: a symposium report. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14681 (2022).

  78. Jones, O. R. et al. Diversity of ageing across the tree of life. Nature 505, 169–173 (2014).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  79. Hartmann, A. et al. Ranking biomarkers of aging by citation profiling and effort scoring. Front. Genet. 12, 686320 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  80. Chen, W. et al. Three-dimensional human facial morphologies as robust aging markers. Cell Res. 25, 574–587 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  81. Levine, M. E., Higgins-Chen, A., Thrush, K., Minteer, C. & Niimi, P. Clock work: deconstructing the epigenetic clock signals in aging, disease and reprogramming. Preprint at bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.13.480245 (2022).

  82. Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. Methuselah Foundation. Rejuvenation Res. 7, 154–159 (2004).

  83. Sprague, V. Battle for ‘old mouse’ prize. BBC News (2003).

  84. Pilcher, H. R. Money for old mice. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/news030915-13 (2003).

  85. Christensen, B. First Methuselah Mouse Rejuvenation ‘M Prize’ Awarded. Live Science https://www.livescience.com/3725-methuselah-mouse-rejuvenation-prize-awarded.html (2004).

  86. A Special Mprize Award. Fight Aging! https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2009/10/a-special-mprize-award/ (2009).

  87. Methuselah Foundation Announces Award to Dr. Huber Warner. Fight Aging! https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2014/06/methuselah-foundation-announces-award-to-dr-huber-warner/ (2014).

  88. SENS Research Foundation. SENS Research Foundation Annual Report (2019).

  89. SENS Research Foundation. SENS Research Foundation Annual Report (2020).

  90. Google. Google announces Calico, a new company focused on health and well-being—news announcements. http://googlepress.blogspot.com/2013/09/calico-announcement.html (2013).

  91. Calico. Calico announces collaboration with the University of Pennsylvania for Translational Medicine efforts in aging and age-related diseases; Garret FitzGerald to become senior advisor to Calico. https://calicolabs.com/press/calico-announces-collaboration-with-the-university-of-pennsylvania-for-translational-medicine-efforts-in-aging-and-age-related-diseases-garret-fitzgerald-to-become-senior-advisor-to-calico (2018).

  92. Calico. AbbVie and Calico announce second extension of collaboration focused on aging and age-related diseases. https://calicolabs.com/press/abbvie-and-calico-announce-second-extension-of-collaboration-focused-on-aging-and-age-related-diseases (2021).

  93. Nast, C. ‘Supercharged’ genomics: 100 years of breakthroughs possible in 10 years. Wired UK https://www.wired.co.uk/article/brad-perkins-human-longevity-wired-health-2015 (2015).

  94. Winkler, R. Genomics startup Human Longevity’s valuation falls 80%. Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/genomics-startup-human-longevitys-valuation-falls-80-1544187724 (2018).

  95. Human Longevity Inc. Changing healthcare ‘one patient at a time’. Pubs—Diagnostics World News https://www.diagnosticsworldnews.com/news/2020/03/06/human-longevity-inc.-changing-healthcare-one-patient-at-a-time (2020).

  96. The Economist. A $3bn bet on finding the fountain of youth. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/a-3bn-bet-on-finding-the-fountain-of-youth/21807244 (2022).

  97. Katewa, S. D. & Kapahi, P. Dietary restriction and aging, 2009. Aging Cell 9, 105–112 (2010).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  98. Gems, D. & de Magalhães, J. P. The hoverfly and the wasp: a critique of the hallmarks of aging as a paradigm. Ageing Res. Rev. 70, 101407 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  99. da Silva, P. F. L. & Schumacher, B. Principles of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of aging. J. Invest. Dermatol. 141, 951–960 (2021).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  100. Schumacher, B., Pothof, J., Vijg, J. & Hoeijmakers, J. H. J. The central role of DNA damage in the ageing process. Nature 592, 695–703 (2021).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  101. Grey, A. de & Rae, M. Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime (St. Martin’s Griffin, 2008).

  102. Hébert, J. Replacing Aging (Science Unbound, 2020).

  103. Tomczyk, S., Fischer, K., Austad, S. & Galliot, B. Hydra, a powerful model for aging studies. Invertebr. Reprod. Dev. 59, 11–16 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  104. Gill, R. File:GevDensity 2.svg—Wikipedia. Generalized Extreme Value Densities https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GevDensity_2.svg (2020).

  105. Finch, C. E. & Pike, M. C. Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model. J. Gerontol. Ser. A 51A, B183–B194 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  106. Harrison, D. E. et al. Rapamycin fed late in life extends lifespan in genetically heterogeneous mice. Nature 460, 392–395 (2009).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  107. Dhahbi, J. M., Kim, H.-J., Mote, P. L., Beaver, R. J. & Spindler, S. R. Temporal linkage between the phenotypic and genomic responses to caloric restriction. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 5524–5529 (2004).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by National Institutes of Health grants to J.V. We thank N. Barzilai and Y. Suh for critically reading the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

B.M. analyzed data and B.M. and J.V. jointly wrote the manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Brandon Milholland or Jan Vijg.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

J.V. is cofounder of SingulOmics. B.M. declares no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Aging thanks S. Jay Olshansky, Joop De Beer and Elsa Logarinho for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Milholland, B., Vijg, J. Why Gilgamesh failed: the mechanistic basis of the limits to human lifespan. Nat Aging 2, 878–884 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-022-00291-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Version of record:

  • Issue date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-022-00291-z

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing: Translational Research

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Translational Research newsletter — top stories in biotechnology, drug discovery and pharma.

Get what matters in translational research, free to your inbox weekly. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Translational Research