Abstract
The purpose of this Perspective is to clarify for an interdisciplinary audience the fundamental concepts of human longevity and provide evidence for a limit to human lifespan. This observed limit is placed into a broader framework by showing how it has arisen through the process of evolution and by enumerating the molecular mechanisms that may enforce it. Finally, we look toward potential future developments and the prospects for possibly circumventing the current limit.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$32.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 digital issues and online access to articles
$119.00 per year
only $9.92 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on SpringerLink
- Instant access to the full article PDF.
USD 39.95
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout


Similar content being viewed by others
References
Dalley, D. Myths from Mesopotamia (Oxford Univ. Press, 2009).
Bible Gateway. Genesis 6:3 NRSV. https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis+6%3A3&version=NRSV
Goldsmith, T. C. Evolvability, population benefit, and the evolution of programmed aging in mammals. Biochemistry 82, 1423–1429 (2017).
Longo, V. D., Mitteldorf, J. & Skulachev, V. P. Programmed and altruistic ageing. Nat. Rev. Genet. 6, 866–872 (2005).
Weismann, A. Essays Upon Heredity and Kindred Biological Problems. Available at https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/48132/pg48132-images.html.utf8 (1889).
Kirkwood, T. B. L. & Cremer, T. Cytogerontology since 1881: a reappraisal of August Weismann and a review of modern progress. Hum. Genet. 60, 101–121 (1982).
Finch, C. E. Evolution of the human lifespan and diseases of aging: roles of infection, inflammation, and nutrition. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 1718–1724 (2010).
Vijg, J. & Kennedy, B. K. The essence of aging. Gerontology 62, 381–385 (2016).
Kowald, A. & Kirkwood, T. B. L. Can aging be programmed? A critical literature review. Aging Cell 15, 986–998 (2016).
Ismail, K. et al. Compression of morbidity is observed across cohorts with exceptional longevity. J. Am. Geriatr. Soc. 64, 1583–1591 (2016).
Fleur, N. S., Williams, C. & Wood, C. Can we live to 200? Here’s a roadmap. The New York Times (27 April 2021).
Rootzén, H. & Zholud, D. Human life is unlimited—but short. Extremes 20, 713–728 (2017).
Belzile, L. R., Davison, A. C., Rootz‚n, H. & Zholud, D. Human mortality at extreme age. R. Soc. Open Sci. 8, 202097 (2021).
Gbari, S., Poulain, M., Dal, L. & Denuit, M. Extreme value analysis of mortality at the oldest ages: a case study based on individual ages at death. N. Am. Actuar. J. 21, 397–416 (2017).
Einmahl, J. J., Einmahl, J. H. J. & de Haan, L. Limits to human life span through extreme value theory. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 114, 1075–1080 (2019).
Feifel, J., Genz, M. & Pauly, M. The myth of immortality: an analysis of the maximum lifespan of US females. https://www.ifa-ulm.de/fileadmin/user_upload/download/forschung/2018_ifa_Feifel-etal_The-Myth-of-Immortality-An_Analysis-of-the-Maximum-Lifespan-of-US-Females.pdf (2018).
Ferreira, A. & Huang, F. Is human life limited or unlimited? (A discussion of the paper by Holger Rootzén and Dmitrii Zholud). Extremes 21, 373–382 (2018).
Milholland, B., Dong, X. & Vijg, J. The shortness of human life constitutes its limit. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1803.04024 (2018).
Beltrán-Sánchez, H., Austad, S. N. & Finch, C. E. Comment on ‘The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers’. Science 361, eaav1200 (2018).
Olshansky, S. J. & Carnes, B. A. Inconvenient truths about human longevity. J. Gerontol. A. Biol. Sci. Med. Sci. 74, S7–S12 (2019).
Antero-Jacquemin, J. et al. Learning from leaders: lifespan trends in olympians and supercentenarians. J. Gerontol. A. Biol. Sci. Med. Sci. 70, 944–949 (2015).
Fleming, N. Scientists up stakes in bet on whether humans will live to 150. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2016.20818 (2016).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 538, 257–259 (2016).
Holden, C. A long-lived bet. Science https://doi.org/10.1126/article.36961 (2001).
Gompertz, B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. In a letter to Francis Baily, Esq. F. R. S. &c. By Benjamin Gompertz, Esq. F. R. S. Abstract paper. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 2, 252–253 (1833).
Olshansky, S. J. & Carnes, B. A. Ever since Gompertz. Demography 34, 1–15 (1997).
Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, M., Vaupel, J. W. & Wachter, K. W. The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers. Science 360, 1459–1461 (2018).
Cabreros, I. A new study argues you might be able to live forever. You still can’t. slate.com, https://slate.com/technology/2018/07/a-new-study-argues-you-might-be-able-to-live-forever-you-still-cant.html (2018).
Newman, S. Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus. PLoS Biol. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2006776 (2018).
Newman, S. J. Plane inclinations: a critique of hypothesis and model choice in Barbi et al. PLoS Biol. 16, e3000048 (2018).
Gavrilov, L. A. & Gavrilova, N. S. Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors. PLoS Biol. 17, e3000148 (2019).
Gavrilov, L. A. & Gavrilova, N. S. New trend in old-age mortality: Gompertzialization of mortality trajectory. Gerontology 65, 451–457 (2019).
Huang, F., Maller, R. & Ning, X. Modelling life tables with advanced ages: an extreme value theory approach—ScienceDirect. Insur. Math. Econ. 93, 95–115 (2020).
Huang, F., Maller, R., Milholland, B. & Ning, X. A mixture model incorporating individual heterogeneity in human lifetimes. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.29.428902v1 (2021).
Gerontology Research Group. Table C—World’s Oldest Person (WOP) Titleholders Since 1955 https://gerontology.fandom.com/wiki/World%27s_Oldest_Person_titleholders (2019).
Cardona, C. & Bishai, D. The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950. BMC Public Health 18, 151 (2018).
Raleigh, V. S. Trends in Life Expectancy in EU and other OECD Countries: Why are Improvements Slowing? https://doi.org/10.1787/223159ab-en (2019).
Harper, S., Riddell, C. A. & King, N. B. Declining life expectancy in the United States: missing the trees for the forest. Annu. Rev. Public Health 42, 381–403 (2021).
Modig, K., Andersson, T., Vaupel, J., Rau, R. & Ahlbom, A. How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan. J. Intern. Med. 282, 156–163 (2017).
Blagosklonny, M. V. Aging is not programmed. Cell Cycle 12, 3736–3742 (2013).
Gladyshev, V. N. The origin of aging: imperfectness-driven non-random damage defines the aging process and control of lifespan. Trends Genet. 29, 506–512 (2013).
Galor, O. & Moav, O. Natural selection and the evolution of life expectancy. SSRN Electron. J. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.563741 (2005).
Morris, I. Economic growth in Ancient Greece. J. Institutional Theor. Econ. 160, 709–742 (2004).
Roser, M., Ortiz-Ospina, E. & Ritchie, H. Life expectancy. https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy (2013).
Jones, D. S., Podolsky, S. H. & Greene, J. A. The burden of disease and the changing task of medicine. N. Engl. J. Med. 366, 2333–2338 (2012).
Brosco, J. P. The early history of the infant mortality rate in America. Pediatrics 103, 478–485 (1999).
Roser, M. Mortality in the past—around half died as children https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past (2019).
Beltrán-Sánchez, H., Soneji, S. & Crimmins, E. M. Past, present and future of healthy life expectancy. Cold Spring Harb. Perspect. Med. 5, a025957 (2015).
Olshansky, S. J. Measuring our narrow strip of life. Nature 538, 175–176 (2016).
Brown, N. J. L., Albers, C. J. & Ritchie, S. J. Contesting the evidence for limited human lifespan. Nature 546, E6–E7 (2017).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E7 (2017).
Hughes, B. G. & Hekimi, S. Many possible maximum lifespan trajectories. Nature 546, E8–E9 (2017).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E9–E10 (2017).
Lenart, A. & Vaupel, J. W. Questionable evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 546, E13–E14 (2017).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E12 (2017).
Rozing, M. P., Kirkwood, T. B. L. & Westendorp, R. G. J. Is there evidence for a limit to human lifespan? Nature 546, E11–E12 (2017).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E14–E15 (2017).
de Beer, J., Bardoutsos, A. & Janssen, F. Maximum human lifespan may increase to 125 years. Nature 546, E16–E17 (2017).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Dong et al. reply. Nature 546, E21 (2017).
Dolgin, E. There’s no limit to longevity, says study that revives human lifespan debate. Nature 559, 14–15 (2018).
The limits to human lifespan must be respected. Nature 538, 6 (2016).
Geddes, L. Human age limit claim sparks debate. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2016.20750 (2016).
Eisenstein, M. Does the human lifespan have a limit? Nature 601, S2–S4 (2022).
Dong, X., Milholland, B. & Vijg, J. Reply to Kashnitsky. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2890500 (2016).
Milholland, B., Dong, X. & Vijg, J. ‘Best-guess’ MRAD provides robust evidence for a limit to human lifespan: reply to de Grey (Rejuvenation Res. 20, 261–262 (2017)). Rejuvenation Res. 20, 437–440 (2017).
Milholland, B. Jeanne Calment, actuarial paradoxography and the limit to human lifespan. Rejuvenation Res. 23, 17–18 (2020).
Williams, G. C. Pleiotropy, natural selection, and the evolution of senescence. Evolution 11, 398–411 (1957).
Le Bourg, E. Evolutionary theories of aging can explain why we age. Interdiscip. Top. Gerontol. 39, 8–23 (2014).
Kowald, A. & Kirkwood, T. B. L. Evolutionary significance of ageing in the wild. Exp. Gerontol. 71, 89–94 (2015).
Austad, S. N. Retarded senescence in an insular population of Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana). J. Zool. 229, 695–708 (1993).
Sandars, N. The Epic of Gilgamesh (Penguin, 1973).
Kenyon, C., Chang, J., Gensch, E., Rudner, A. & Tabtiang, R. A C. elegans mutant that lives twice as long as wild type. Nature 366, 461–464 (1993).
Kimura, K. D., Tissenbaum, H. A., Liu, Y. & Ruvkun, G. daf-2, an insulin receptor-like gene that regulates longevity and diapause in Caenorhabditis elegans. Science 277, 942–946 (1997).
Fontana, L., Partridge, L. & Longo, V. D. Extending healthy life span—from yeast to humans. Science 328, 321–326 (2010).
Kennedy, B. K. et al. Geroscience: linking aging to chronic disease. Cell 159, 709–713 (2014).
Olshansky, S. J., Perry, D., Miller, R. A. & Butler, R. N. In pursuit of the longevity dividend: what should we be doing to prepare for the unprecedented aging of humanity? Scientist 20, 28–37 (2006).
DeVito, L. M. et al. Extending human healthspan and longevity: a symposium report. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14681 (2022).
Jones, O. R. et al. Diversity of ageing across the tree of life. Nature 505, 169–173 (2014).
Hartmann, A. et al. Ranking biomarkers of aging by citation profiling and effort scoring. Front. Genet. 12, 686320 (2021).
Chen, W. et al. Three-dimensional human facial morphologies as robust aging markers. Cell Res. 25, 574–587 (2015).
Levine, M. E., Higgins-Chen, A., Thrush, K., Minteer, C. & Niimi, P. Clock work: deconstructing the epigenetic clock signals in aging, disease and reprogramming. Preprint at bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.13.480245 (2022).
Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. Methuselah Foundation. Rejuvenation Res. 7, 154–159 (2004).
Sprague, V. Battle for ‘old mouse’ prize. BBC News (2003).
Pilcher, H. R. Money for old mice. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/news030915-13 (2003).
Christensen, B. First Methuselah Mouse Rejuvenation ‘M Prize’ Awarded. Live Science https://www.livescience.com/3725-methuselah-mouse-rejuvenation-prize-awarded.html (2004).
A Special Mprize Award. Fight Aging! https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2009/10/a-special-mprize-award/ (2009).
Methuselah Foundation Announces Award to Dr. Huber Warner. Fight Aging! https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2014/06/methuselah-foundation-announces-award-to-dr-huber-warner/ (2014).
SENS Research Foundation. SENS Research Foundation Annual Report (2019).
SENS Research Foundation. SENS Research Foundation Annual Report (2020).
Google. Google announces Calico, a new company focused on health and well-being—news announcements. http://googlepress.blogspot.com/2013/09/calico-announcement.html (2013).
Calico. Calico announces collaboration with the University of Pennsylvania for Translational Medicine efforts in aging and age-related diseases; Garret FitzGerald to become senior advisor to Calico. https://calicolabs.com/press/calico-announces-collaboration-with-the-university-of-pennsylvania-for-translational-medicine-efforts-in-aging-and-age-related-diseases-garret-fitzgerald-to-become-senior-advisor-to-calico (2018).
Calico. AbbVie and Calico announce second extension of collaboration focused on aging and age-related diseases. https://calicolabs.com/press/abbvie-and-calico-announce-second-extension-of-collaboration-focused-on-aging-and-age-related-diseases (2021).
Nast, C. ‘Supercharged’ genomics: 100 years of breakthroughs possible in 10 years. Wired UK https://www.wired.co.uk/article/brad-perkins-human-longevity-wired-health-2015 (2015).
Winkler, R. Genomics startup Human Longevity’s valuation falls 80%. Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/genomics-startup-human-longevitys-valuation-falls-80-1544187724 (2018).
Human Longevity Inc. Changing healthcare ‘one patient at a time’. Pubs—Diagnostics World News https://www.diagnosticsworldnews.com/news/2020/03/06/human-longevity-inc.-changing-healthcare-one-patient-at-a-time (2020).
The Economist. A $3bn bet on finding the fountain of youth. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/a-3bn-bet-on-finding-the-fountain-of-youth/21807244 (2022).
Katewa, S. D. & Kapahi, P. Dietary restriction and aging, 2009. Aging Cell 9, 105–112 (2010).
Gems, D. & de Magalhães, J. P. The hoverfly and the wasp: a critique of the hallmarks of aging as a paradigm. Ageing Res. Rev. 70, 101407 (2021).
da Silva, P. F. L. & Schumacher, B. Principles of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of aging. J. Invest. Dermatol. 141, 951–960 (2021).
Schumacher, B., Pothof, J., Vijg, J. & Hoeijmakers, J. H. J. The central role of DNA damage in the ageing process. Nature 592, 695–703 (2021).
Grey, A. de & Rae, M. Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime (St. Martin’s Griffin, 2008).
Hébert, J. Replacing Aging (Science Unbound, 2020).
Tomczyk, S., Fischer, K., Austad, S. & Galliot, B. Hydra, a powerful model for aging studies. Invertebr. Reprod. Dev. 59, 11–16 (2015).
Gill, R. File:GevDensity 2.svg—Wikipedia. Generalized Extreme Value Densities https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GevDensity_2.svg (2020).
Finch, C. E. & Pike, M. C. Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model. J. Gerontol. Ser. A 51A, B183–B194 (1996).
Harrison, D. E. et al. Rapamycin fed late in life extends lifespan in genetically heterogeneous mice. Nature 460, 392–395 (2009).
Dhahbi, J. M., Kim, H.-J., Mote, P. L., Beaver, R. J. & Spindler, S. R. Temporal linkage between the phenotypic and genomic responses to caloric restriction. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 5524–5529 (2004).
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by National Institutes of Health grants to J.V. We thank N. Barzilai and Y. Suh for critically reading the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
B.M. analyzed data and B.M. and J.V. jointly wrote the manuscript.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
J.V. is cofounder of SingulOmics. B.M. declares no competing interests.
Peer review
Peer review information
Nature Aging thanks S. Jay Olshansky, Joop De Beer and Elsa Logarinho for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Milholland, B., Vijg, J. Why Gilgamesh failed: the mechanistic basis of the limits to human lifespan. Nat Aging 2, 878–884 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-022-00291-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Version of record:
Issue date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-022-00291-z
This article is cited by
-
Gerontology lost in translation from demography to biology of aging and back
Biogerontology (2026)
-
Brain age Prediction and the Challenge of Biological Concepts of Aging
Neuroethics (2023)


