Fig. 3: DunedinPACNI predicts cognition, cognitive impairment and conversion to dementia.

a,b, Cross-sectional associations between DunedinPACNI and cognitive test scores in ADNI (a) and UKB (b). a,b, Effects are presented as standardized β coefficients with the error bars as the 95% CIs. We visualized the absolute effect sizes to aid visual comparison and clarity (see Supplementary Tables 2 and 3 for the raw effect sizes). The exact sample sizes for each test in a and b are reported in Supplementary Tables 2 and 3. c, Group differences in DunedinPACNI scores in 1,737 ADNI participants according to cognitive status at scanning. The center lines represent the median. The lower and upper hinges represent the 25th and 75th percentiles. The whiskers extend 1.5 times the interquartile range (IQR) from the hinges. Data beyond the whiskers are plotted as individual outliers. d, Survival curve of the relative proportion of CN ADNI participants at baseline who remained CN during the follow-up window, grouped according to slow, average and fast baseline DunedinPACNI scores. Note that although the maximum follow-up length is 16 years, we chose to visualize only 9 years of follow-up because of high amounts of censoring after 9 years. A plot with the full 16 years of follow-up and points marking censoring is presented in Extended Data Fig. 4. ADAS-Cog, Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale 13; DSST, Digit Symbol Substitution Task; FAQ, Functional Activities Questionnaire; LogMemory, Logical Memory test; Matrix, Matrix Pattern Completion; MMSE, Mini-Mental State Examination; RAVLT, Rey Auditory Visual Learning Test; Tower, Tower Rearranging; TrailsA, Trail Making Test Part A; TrailsB, Trail Making Test Part B; VM, visual memory; WM, working memory.