Fig. 1: Model-based demonstration of effect of delays in implementing public health interventions on number of individuals needing treatment during an epidemic. | Communications Medicine

Fig. 1: Model-based demonstration of effect of delays in implementing public health interventions on number of individuals needing treatment during an epidemic.

From: A unified framework for diagnostic test development and evaluation during outbreaks of emerging infections

Fig. 1

Time course of the number of individuals requiring intensive care therapy if measures are taken at different time points to reduce the effective reproduction number below 1 (reproduction number (R) at the start set to R = 2, reduced to R = 0.9 after 7, 14, 21, 28 days). Assumptions of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model: pre-infection time: 3 days, infectious time: 7 days, proportion of individuals requiring intensive care unit out of all infectious patients: 2%, length of stay in intensive care unit: 15 days, population size: 80.000.000, number of susceptible individuals at the start: 79.950.000, number of exposed individuals at start: 40.000, number of infectious individuals at the start: 10.000, number of immune individuals at the start: 0, number of individuals requiring intensive care at the start: 0.

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