Fig. 2: Example model forecasts of number of individuals needing treatment during an epidemic, under varying assumptions about antibody test specificity during parameterisation.
Forecast for number of individuals requiring intensive care therapy if measures as described for Fig. 1 are taken after 28 days, with the model parametrised using different assumptions for antibody test specificity. SEIR model with Infectious compartment split into ‘Detected’ and ‘Undetected’ compartments. Parametrisation as described in Fig. 1, but with 2% of detected infectious cases requiring intensive care. Proportion of detection obtained from data from the ‘Heinsberg’ seroprevalence study86, corrected for antibody test sensitivity of 0.9, and specificity of 0.9, 0.93, 0.96, 0.99, 1.
