Fig. 3: Forecasts of ward and ICU occupancy for the state of New South Wales produced between March and September 2022.
From: A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy
a Forecasts of ward occupancy. b Forecasts of ICU occupancy. Credible intervals from 20% through to 90% in 10% increments are displayed in progressively lighter shading. Reported occupancy counts are overlaid. As we produced our forecasts on a weekly basis and each forecast spans three weeks, forecasts are plotted interleaved across three rows; reported occupancy counts are repeated across each row. Forecast start dates are displayed as vertical dashed lines. Note that forecast start date was dependent upon that of the case forecast, and this varied slightly over time (see forecasts 5, 9, 12, and 19). The second week for each forecast (days 8–14) has background shaded in light blue. An identifier for each forecast, 1 through 21, is displayed above each forecast start, and a ^ is displayed where the upper credible intervals of a forecast exceed the y-axis limits. Forecasts for other states and territories are provided in the Supplementary Materials.
